2018 Bulk Price

[GeneralStark]

At current prices (Canadian bulk price at $2.95/lb, U.S. bulk price at $2.00/lb), then approximately 59% of the reason U.S. prices are low is attributable to the Canadian $ to U.S. $ exchange rate, and 41% is attributable to oversupply. Currently, oversupply is driving the continued downward price trend in the U.S. Without any oversupply, U.S. bulk prices would be around $2.39, which most producers would probably be satisfied with.

So in other words, the best thing US bulk producers could do if they want prices to go up $.39 would be to collectively limit their production for a season. Perhaps everyone can agree to only set 3/4 of their taps this year. Who's in?

[gbeneke]

I'm just a 40 gallon maple addict who sells a little for $9/12 ozs. and gives away a lot of syrup to my friends and my church so I have no stake in maple prices. I have noticed 4 things on the maple forums:
1. Almost every one on these forums starts small and within 5 years they are 5x, 10x or 100x their beginning production, which is affecting prices.
2.Maple syrup is getting easier to do than it was 10 years or even 5 years ago, so the drudgery of collecting buckets is not helping to keep down prices.
3. Shiny stainless steel attracts new maple farmers. Like the dairy price fiasco, equipment dealers do better sometimes than the producers.
4. Big money gets into agriculture when something is easier to produce and they do things in a big way. There are 50,000 cow farms that have put a lot of 50 cow farms out of business.
This is not meant to pee anyone off but is just what I have seen in my 60 years around dairy farms. Thank God, maple sugaring is still fun and a great family venture. I doubt that you will be able to cooperatively tap less to control prices.

[markcasper]

2.Maple syrup is getting easier to do than it was 10 years or even 5 years ago, so the drudgery of collecting buckets is not helping to keep down prices.

Exactly a true statement! Some on here do not see it this way. I'll go even further and say that most of the commercial syrup, industrial syrup, processing grade, or whatever XYZ grade it will be called tomorrow glut can be attributed to the checkvalves, new drop/spout every year, not shutting the vacuum off til the leafs are on the trees technology. The equipment people were highly responsible for this as well and encouraged the production of lower quality syrup and to "hang on at the evaporator a few more days", Bruce Bascom, Bascom Maple Farms catalogs. Saying that RO's and vacuum tubing do not contribute to an oversupply is like saying you didn't get more and faster milk from a Surge bucket than when cows were milked by hand.

4. Big money gets into agriculture when something is easier to produce and they do things in a big way. There are 50,000 cow farms that have put a lot of 50 cow farms out of business.

Easier to produce when their allowed to use unchecked illegal aliens that get paid peanuts. The farmer that doesn't use them cannot compete and gets pushed out.

[markcasper]

At current prices (Canadian bulk price at $2.95/lb, U.S. bulk price at $2.00/lb), then approximately 59% of the reason U.S. prices are low is attributable to the Canadian $ to U.S. $ exchange rate, and 41% is attributable to oversupply. Currently, oversupply is driving the continued downward price trend in the U.S. Without any oversupply, U.S. bulk prices would be around $2.39, which most producers would probably be satisfied with.

Actually by checking out the dollar chart (US/Canadian chart almost identical) https://www.barchart.com/stocks/quotes/$DXY/technical-chart?plot=BAR&volume=0&data=WO&density=X&pricesOn =1&asPctChange=0&logscale=0&sym=$DXY&grid=1&height =500&studyheight=100

I got $2.60/lb for bulk syrup the end of 2015, the chart shows the dollar was high for practically an entire year before this in 2014, yet it did not seem to affect the price paid until after the 2016 crop was made. So I am not entirely believeing the whole story about the exchange rate being the biggest reason for the depressed prices. Yes, using todays exchange value, US syrup should have a value to a US packer of at least $2.40/ lb. The dollar has been losing steam now for awhile and the gap is getting closer, so packers are going to have to come up with new excuses pretty soon!

[Scm]

..........

[n8hutch]

I got $2.60/lb for bulk syrup the end of 2015, the chart shows the dollar was high for practically an entire year before this in 2014, yet it did not seem to affect the price paid until after the 2016 crop was made. So I am not entirely believeing the whole story about the exchange rate being the biggest reason for the depressed prices. Yes, using todays exchange value, US syrup should have a value to a US packer of at least $2.40/ lb. The dollar has been losing steam now for awhile and the gap is getting closer, so packers are going to have to come up with new excuses pretty soon![/QUOTE]

I do think that the Packers might be taking advantage of the over supply by increasing their Margins over what they had in years past. Albeit they really need to if they are going to sit on it longer. And it is a good deal for them that they can get the syrup delivered to their door.

I'm sure there is some cost savings if a packer can have a bulk trailer load of syrup delivered from Canada vs, handling 100 barrels of syrup produced by smaller operations. Im sure they have these expenses figured out and that more than likely effects how much they are willing to pay.

[berkshires]

I'm just a hobby producer, but to me the whole approach to the issue here is laughable. As long as you keep thinking in these narrow ways, the price will just keep dropping. All of you seem think the only solution is curbing oversupply, or by marketing your own retail product better. It's just my opinion, but from what I've seen of the world that's nonsense.

The solution is marketing, branding, advertising, whatever you want to call it. If in ten years every crappy product on the shelves said "now with real maple syrup" there would be no oversupply - the bulk syrup would go out the door faster than you could make it. The trouble is all of y'all seem way too individualistic to ever work together and part with any of your hard-earned cash to some sleazy advertising firm. Well if you can ever get over yourselves, I can tell you that you could sell the worst tasting bulk that's got squirrel fur floating in it with the right marketing campaign. There's a reason why marketing firms make so much money - because they work.

Just throwing in my (bulk-priced) $.02

Gabe

[berkshires]

And just to clarify, I mean the kind of branding campaign that would require a national maple organization. Not something that individual retailers could likely pull off. I dunno, maybe you could do something at the state or regional level? But as long as it's dog-eat-dog, it's just going to continue to be a race to the bottom.

[Parker]

Read the book "a sugar season" it goes into some detail on costs associated with getting syrup out of the federation,,,,it is not cheap with many requirments,,but,,spread out over thousands of bbls its less of a factor,,but still a factor to be ADDED to that $2.40 price....that being said i totaly understand the packers reasons and respect them...they are in it to make money and work hard to get and maintain in a cut throat market....no one ever told me i would get $3.00 a pound for all the syrup i made forever....packers only have so big a market and can borrow so much money (and why would they want to pay interest on money they dont need to spend especialy when they know during a bumper crop the longer they wait to buy the less they have to pay as producer loans come due),,,, and they can only store so much syrup....its not their job to bail you out if you morgatged the farm on your maple dream during these times...they want to make a profit and the less they have to pay the more of their dreams they can fund......
If you think its a good time to expand go to someone who buys syrup and sells equipmentt,,tell them you want all the stuff for 10k taps and you will pay them in syrup at the current price at the end of the season......
At the same time this represents an oppertunity to export syrup into canada ...wouldent that frost the federations pancakes....
There is oppertunity in every market if you look in the right spot,,,but,,you have to look my friends..retail is the low haning fruite,,,but i think of the guys i know with 50k taps and thats alot of retailing......
Good luck

[GeneralStark]

And just to clarify, I mean the kind of branding campaign that would require a national maple organization. Not something that individual retailers could likely pull off. I dunno, maybe you could do something at the state or regional level? But as long as it's dog-eat-dog, it's just going to continue to be a race to the bottom.

State associations are doing a great deal..why do many think of Vermont when they think of maple syrup? VT has been marketing maple longer than anyone...but I know many producers that don't join the state associations...

You do raise an interesting philosophical point however...why would most of the producers of Quebec come together to agree to form the federation and essentially regulate their production in a cooperative fashion? And what are the chances of this ever happening in the US?

Our free market system certainly has its advantages, but Quebec certainly has an advantage in terms of pricing right now with their regulated market approach...

And not all of us in this forum are bulk producers complaining about the prices...many of us have built our operations through the sale of products we produce and expand our tap counts accordingly.