Long range winter forecast and what does that mean for the sap run?

[Swingpure]

I have noticed over my short six years of tapping ( in my adult life ) and being so intimate with the 10 day, that it seems that the 10 day forecast for temperatures and wind speed deviate less from the predictions then do the 10 day predictions for sunshine, cloud cover and precip.

But I guess that is because being off only a degree or two can dictate whether sunshine forms or clouds and precip form. Which are a much bigger differential, at least from an appearance point of view then a degree or two or three in Temp are.

It seems that Sunshine and or precip/clouds forming in the skies is probably even more finicky ( less scientifically definable ) then sap flow forming in the trees is.

With that said I am impressed with the forecasting ability they do have and can't blame them for not being so good just a few days out.

The "10 day forcast" speaks volumes from its own terminology. As in .... "We are clueless beyond that" ... As in we could have 7 years of feast and 7 years of famine ... As in this is nothing new at all.

One good thing about the bible is, is that it has taught me that weather trends have been around at least since the bible was written. However long that is. Other then that, it pretty much leaves me confused and provides no additional information on my maple sugaring conundrums!

I agree that most of the erroneous forecasts are generally off in precipitation amounts or type. Our last three snow events, the forecast they gave the night before, underestimated the amount of snow by 2 or 3 times. Last night they said we would get 5-10 cms (2-4 inches) but we are already over 31 cms (over a foot) and counting.

Temperature is more important for sap flow, which they are better at.

So far the seasonal forecast is being fulfilled. Periods of lots of snow, followed by mild stretches. Not great for my ice fishing, which looks like it will be delayed by maybe a month this year.

[Hop Kiln Road]

I go by the number of days the saps run (and I pump the tanks.) 15 year high 24, low 13, average 17.4, and median 16. Probably impossible to predict via long range or short range forecasts. My bushes had very high water tables this fall, 13" of rain in July alone, so I'm wondering if there won't be a greater frost penetration than normal.

[berkshires]

For me, the one and only thing a long-range forecast would be useful for would be knowing when to tap. In my bush I get about six decent weeks of potential runs, so timing is vital. I have tracked the *actual* weather, and what that says each year for when the optimal day to tap would have been.

In the nine years from 2012 to 2021, the best time to tap has varied quite a bit, with the earliest being Feb 6 (2012) and the latest being March 9 (2015 and 2019). Average is March 23. So you can see that if I'm off by a few weeks, I can really miss out.

That said, I'm human, and I do look at the long-range forecast, but I cannot remember a single year when they've been accurate enough to have provided a reasonable guess on when I should tap. There was one year when I was convinced I should tap way earlier than usual. That was my worst year ever. The ten-day forecast, on the other hand, is very valuable. It's not perfect, but it's good enough to be usable for some planning purposes.

There is one rule I've discovered in looking at those past years of actual weather: If I never tap before 2/14 (a bit more than a week before the average best date), I will at worst come pretty darn close to the best potential for my sugarbush, even if the absolute optimal date is a week or more before that. That's because the later runs are likely to come very close to balancing out the earlier ones I missed. If I do not follow this rule, and tap much earlier, I risk paying a huge penalty if I get it wrong, as the heavier runs often come later in the season, and if my taps are mostly dried up, I'm SOL.

So for me, using the rule of 2/14 (Valentines Day) as a minimum date, and then using the ten-day forecast to tap as late as early March, is the way to go.

Other sugar bushes may be very different than mine. And using a lot of tubing runs with good sanitation may be a great deal more forgiving about best tapping date than me being on all buckets. You just have to learn over time how best to tap your sugarbush.

GO

[Sugar Bear]

There is one rule I've discovered in looking at those past years of actual weather: If I never tap before 2/14 (a bit more than a week before the average best date), I will at worst come pretty darn close to the best potential for my sugarbush, even if the absolute optimal date is a week or more before that. That's because the later runs are likely to come very close to balancing out the earlier ones I missed. If I do not follow this rule, and tap much earlier, I risk paying a huge penalty if I get it wrong, as the heavier runs often come later in the season, and if my taps are mostly dried up, I'm SOL.

GO

For sure.

But I set two dates for my time to tap determination.

1) A Date to start considering when to tap ( For my region it is January 1st/5th

If sap has been flowing well for the previous 30 days I might tap here. Or consider tapping at the next favorable temp because of the previous 30 days.

2) A Date to tap no matter what, at the next set of favorable temp conditions. (For my region that is February 14th/19th) If it is frozen from the 14th to 27th I tap on the 28th.

I have a 15 day sliding window.

But everybody has to find that slot for their Lattitude Longitude location.

Conditions never really slide off more then 15 days on any seasonal aspect of nature.

For example this year the leaves came off late in the Mid Hudson Valley and I think we struggled to find even a soft frost until early November. Both aspects were the latest I think I have ever seen mid valley. But that said they are both only 15 days off the natural average AT MOST! But when things like this happen it fortifies a growing portion of society that thinks its going to be summer time in the winter time soon.

Also with this said I am surprised I saw not a peep about anybody taping from early November to now on this website this year. If you got the extra set of trees it may have worked and been ethical.
If they did I am curious to know how they did.







[/B]

[Swingpure]

Your sap season starts so much earlier then ours, not surprisingly. It is like you get Christmas Day three to four weeks early,

It amazes me how much a few miles can make. People in Toronto, 150 miles away are golfing, while I am still ice fishing.

I think climate change will affect the seasons sooner than people think and traditional start days for the start of the flow of sap will change. We have about 15” (38 cms) of snow on the ground right now, but that all could be gone in a week’s time. Now that’s weather and not climate change, but I think things like that will happen more often.

Here, speaking to locals, normally the first week of March is when the sap begins to flow. It has flowed at the end of February. I have a few good local contacts who will help me on when I should tap, but I will be at the leading edge of the tap.

Right now the plan is to have 80:taps, but if there is not a lot of snow on the ground I may have 90+ as I will add more buckets for nearby trees.

[berkshires]

For sure.

But I set two dates for my time to tap determination.

1) A Date to start considering when to tap ( For my region it is January 1st/5th

If sap has been flowing well for the previous 30 days I might tap here. Or consider tapping at the next favorable temp because of the previous 30 days.

2) A Date to tap no matter what, at the next set of favorable temp conditions. (For my region that is February 14th/19th) If it is frozen from the 14th to 27th I tap on the 28th.

Yes, definitely. 2019 was a year when I was very worried. All through the end of Feb and the beginning of March everything was frozen solid. March 7th it hit negative one overnight (Fahrenheit)! But when things finally defrosted, I wound up having a short but better-than-average season. So you never know.

GO

[berkshires]

I looked again at my notes, and discovered that for every rule there is an exception! LOL. I wasn't sugaring back in 2012, but if I had been, I would definitely have lost out substantially if I'd have waited until 2/14 to tap. It seems that that season was just plain hot, the optimal date to tap for me would have been 2/6, and most likely the trees would have totally shut down by the third week in March, with many days in the 70s, and one reaching the 80s!

That must have been a hell of a season - I wonder what the long-range forecasts told people that year? Did anyone tap really early based on those forecasts that year?

GO

[TapTapTap]

Starting in late February, I like to pick a sting of moderate temperature conditions (20s) to tap. I figure that if it's been real cold then it will take the trees a few days to thaw anyway. So I can't really be late. I'm up around 1,500 taps these days but I don't spend more than about 4 hours in the woods at a time - and a lot less if it's cold.

Ken

[Sugar Bear]

Starting in late February, I like to pick a sting of moderate temperature conditions (20s) to tap. I figure that if it's been real cold then it will take the trees a few days to thaw anyway. So I can't really be late. I'm up around 1,500 taps these days but I don't spend more than about 4 hours in the woods at a time - and a lot less if it's cold.

Ken

I am wondering if a advantage of taping in such weather would be a cleaner tap hole from the get go. No or fewer microbes around in the colder air that will culture the tap hole when you tap.

Probably would not make much of a difference in the end either way.

[Swingpure]

For me, the one and only thing a long-range forecast would be useful for would be knowing when to tap. In my bush I get about six decent weeks of potential runs, so timing is vital. I have tracked the *actual* weather, and what that says each year for when the optimal day to tap would have been.

In the nine years from 2012 to 2021, the best time to tap has varied quite a bit, with the earliest being Feb 6 (2012) and the latest being March 9 (2015 and 2019). Average is March 23. So you can see that if I'm off by a few weeks, I can really miss out.

That said, I'm human, and I do look at the long-range forecast, but I cannot remember a single year when they've been accurate enough to have provided a reasonable guess on when I should tap. There was one year when I was convinced I should tap way earlier than usual. That was my worst year ever. The ten-day forecast, on the other hand, is very valuable. It's not perfect, but it's good enough to be usable for some planning purposes.

There is one rule I've discovered in looking at those past years of actual weather: If I never tap before 2/14 (a bit more than a week before the average best date), I will at worst come pretty darn close to the best potential for my sugarbush, even if the absolute optimal date is a week or more before that. That's because the later runs are likely to come very close to balancing out the earlier ones I missed. If I do not follow this rule, and tap much earlier, I risk paying a huge penalty if I get it wrong, as the heavier runs often come later in the season, and if my taps are mostly dried up, I'm SOL.

So for me, using the rule of 2/14 (Valentines Day) as a minimum date, and then using the ten-day forecast to tap as late as early March, is the way to go.

Other sugar bushes may be very different than mine. And using a lot of tubing runs with good sanitation may be a great deal more forgiving about best tapping date than me being on all buckets. You just have to learn over time how best to tap your sugarbush.

GO

Feeding off your post, I tried to think of what would be the earliest date to start and the latest date to finish. I looked at old posts from several years. Although there are exceptions, the earliest date would be February 22nd and the latest date March 14 to tap. That is a three week period where the forecast would be used to pick the date.

For me personally I need about five days to shovel out around my evaporator, assemble my sugar shed, and do a bunch of other preparatory things. I have also never drilled a single tap hole, so I am not sure how long it will take me to tap the 67 taps on lines and 13 on buckets.

Right or wrong, I want to start tapping about 3 days ahead of when I think the sap will run.

One thing that might help catch a late run is that I may add 15 more buckets once the snow levels drop and I can easily get to the buckets.

The one question I have is let’s say the sap runs over a period of 6 weeks (42 days). On average how many of those days, does the sap actually run?