Long range winter forecast and what does that mean for the sap run?

[Swingpure]

I follow Judah Cohen , .

This weather forecast link showed up in my Googles news feed.

This guy uses some of the same terminology as Judah and talks about the lower and upper components of the polar vortex being “connected”.. His forecast is understandable in layman’s terms. It is long winded, but interesting. It takes a while to actually get to February’s and March’s forecast. Essentially it says February will be cold and March it warms up.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global...st-pattern-fa/

[JoeJ]

How much is the long range forecast really worth? NOT VERY MUCH. I made a chart of the 10 day forecast in my area to see how close the temperatures were predicted and what they really were 10 days later.

Date.....!0 days ago......now
Feb 8.........22..............34. (yesterday actual high)
Feb 9.........18..............32
Feb 10.......25..............39
Feb 11.......30..............36
Feb 12.......28..............42

I need 6 or 7 days to tap my 3,200 trees and even the previous 6 day forecast is not very good.

Joe

[DrTimPerkins]

How much is the long range forecast really worth? NOT VERY MUCH.

Agree completely. Long-range forecasting of the weather is difficult at best, especially for something as sensitive to small changes in temperature above and below freezing like sap flow. Just a few degrees off high or low makes a huge difference.

[Sunday Rock Maple]

This is a long thread so my apologies if someone has already tossed in Yogi Berea' s classic observation that "predictions are very difficult, especially about the future".

[DrTimPerkins]

My long-range prediction, guaranteed to be 100% accurate, is that after the winter ends, it will warm up. Then next fall it'll start to get cold again.

[DrTimPerkins]

NOAA/NWS Long-range Feb-April Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...nal.php?lead=1

[Andy VT]

This guy uses some of the same terminology as Judah and talks about the lower and upper components of the polar vortex being “connected”.. His forecast is understandable in layman’s terms. It is long winded, but interesting. It takes a while to actually get to February’s and March’s forecast. Essentially it says February will be cold and March it warms up.

Dang! I too was predicting March would be warmer than February, and I just kept it to myself!
Sorry, well, not sorry, but couldn't resist! I know that's not quite what you or he meant...
Still going for March 1st (give or take) to hang my buckets based on the last couple years' bud-outs in April.
This year (unlike previous years) I'm going to hold off on the norways until the sugars are hopping and see if the norways produce a little better.
This is based on a neighbor who tapped a week after me last year and got like 4 times the yield from a norway as me.
Could be a freak accident but I aim to find out!