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Thread: Long range winter forecast and what does that mean for the sap run?

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jul 2021
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    Parry Sound Area, Ontario
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    Default Long range winter forecast and what does that mean for the sap run?

    I was reading the long range weather forecast for Ontario, which should be similar to the forecast for many of the States in the North East and in Quebec.

    It is calling for “extended periods of mild weather”

    “ A come-and-go winter is expected with periods of mild weather and periods of high impact winter weather. An active storm track should bring an abundance of snow to much of the region at times, but many systems will also bring a messy mix of snow, ice and rain, especially across southern areas. The winter will also include extended periods of mild weather, including the potential for a prolonged thaw, especially across southern parts of the province.”

    Although I would not put my life on the line based on a long range forecast, let’s assume that this winter from mid January onward has some “extended periods of mild weather, including the potential for a prolonged thaw”, will this mean several different periods of sap flow?

    Where I live, we will be on the border line of the jet stream. If it generally runs above us, we will have some of these mild periods, if it runs below us, we will have a ton of snow.
    2022 - 5 pan block arch - 109 taps, 73 on 3/16 lines, 36 on drops into 5 gallon pails.
    930 gallons boiled, 109 L (28.8 gals) of delicious syrup made.
    DYI Vacuum Filter
    2023 - 170 taps, mostly on lines, 1153 gallons boiled, 130 L (34.34 gals) of delicious syrup made, on a 2x4 divided pan and base stack, 8” pipe, on a block arch that boiled at a rate of 13 gallons per hour.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2016
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    Rutland, Vermont
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    It probably will mean some of the bigger operations will catch the early, early runs. The sap flow in January is usually low sugar content and the days are so short it might not be much of a run of sap. Being a small producer we try to stay close to the historical time to tap in our area. (The first week in March)
    CDL 2.5*8 Venturi with all the bells
    Leader Clear 5 bank filter press
    Memprotec 350H RO
    600ish taps and looking for more.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
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    northwest CT
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    ive only been making syrup for a few years but, have been involved in the snow business for 40 and one thing i can tell you is.....dont listen to any long range forcasts, they cant predict more then 3 or 4 days out with 75% certainity

  4. #4
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    Dec 2013
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    Stockbridge,Ma
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    CTguy923 nailed it. Do not waste your time looking at long range forecasts. You will just cause yourself a lot of stress for nothing. They are not accurate.
    First introduced to making maple syrup in 1969
    Making syrup every year since 1979
    3 x 10 oil fired
    Revolution syrup and max flue pan
    Almost 1300 taps total with 900 on high vacuum
    Bought first Marcland drawoff in 1997, still going strong.

  5. #5
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    Jul 2021
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    Parry Sound Area, Ontario
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    I actually have a little more faith in the seasonal forecasts than relatively short term ones. It amazes me that for here, how often then are wrong even 24 hours out.
    2022 - 5 pan block arch - 109 taps, 73 on 3/16 lines, 36 on drops into 5 gallon pails.
    930 gallons boiled, 109 L (28.8 gals) of delicious syrup made.
    DYI Vacuum Filter
    2023 - 170 taps, mostly on lines, 1153 gallons boiled, 130 L (34.34 gals) of delicious syrup made, on a 2x4 divided pan and base stack, 8” pipe, on a block arch that boiled at a rate of 13 gallons per hour.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Location
    Weston, CT
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    473

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    Although it is unseasonably warm today, this year in the Mid-Hudson Valley it has been colder than normal for the past 35 days. It was warmer than usual up until the end of October with hardly even a "soft" night frost to be found.

    But since then, hard frosts have been in play almost 5 out of every 7 nights. With a lot of partly sunny days in the mid 40's.

    I have spotted some ice formation on pieces of water that it has no business being at in November in the mid hudson valley. I go by this stuff ( my own local observations ) more than anything else. And starting Feb 1 I combine these observations with the 10 day forecast as a decision maker with when I will tap.

    "With regards to making a decision on when to tap ... the past two months of weather should be combined with the next 10 day forcast. I.E this has been what is "trending" ... this is what is forcast for the next 10 days.

    Your past weather trends talk to you more about the coming weather trends more then anything else. Make not a single mistake about that.

    Don't ever bother paying any attention to anything after 10 days out. NEVER!
    Last edited by Sugar Bear; 12-06-2021 at 04:56 PM.
    If you think it's easy to make good money in maple syrup .... then your obviously good at stealing somebody's Maple Syrup.

    Favorite Tree: Sugar Maple
    Most Hated Animal: Sap Sucker
    Most Loved Animal: Devon Rex Cat
    Favorite Kingpin: Bruce Bascom
    40 Sugar Maple Taps ... 23 in CT and 17 in NY .... 29 on gravity tubing and 11 on 5G buckets ... 2019 Totals 508 gallons of sap, 7 boils, 11.4 gallons of syrup.
    1 Girlfriend that gives away all my syrup to her friends.

  7. #7
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    May 2009
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    UVM Proctor Maple Research Center, Underhill Ctr, VT
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  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jul 2021
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    Parry Sound Area, Ontario
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    In my former working life, I worked for a railroad that had lines in both Canada and the United States. Among the many hats I wore, I was in charge of the weather forecasting companies. We based business decisions on the weather forecast and more importantly warnings, both forecasted and real time. We used WeatherData a US based Company as our contractor. (They were later absorbed by Accu-Weather) They were actually very good at forecasting the weather.

    Now in my retired life, using the same weather forecasting services as the public, I am constantly disappointed in the forecast and barely trust the next day forecasts.

    Having said that, predicting a daily forecast I think is harder I think than a seasonal forecast. There are fewer variables. They nailed the seasonal weather forecast this fall here.

    But I am as skeptical as anyone else about forecasts, my first post was assuming the seasonal forecast was correct and we had numerous mild spells in the spring, what would that mean for the sap run?

    Dr Perkins, for Vermont, do have the number of gallons of syrup produced per year per tap for the last 10-20 years? I am just trying to identify good years and bad years and compare that to La Niña years.
    2022 - 5 pan block arch - 109 taps, 73 on 3/16 lines, 36 on drops into 5 gallon pails.
    930 gallons boiled, 109 L (28.8 gals) of delicious syrup made.
    DYI Vacuum Filter
    2023 - 170 taps, mostly on lines, 1153 gallons boiled, 130 L (34.34 gals) of delicious syrup made, on a 2x4 divided pan and base stack, 8” pipe, on a block arch that boiled at a rate of 13 gallons per hour.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    May 2009
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    UVM Proctor Maple Research Center, Underhill Ctr, VT
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    6,390

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    Quote Originally Posted by Swingpure View Post
    Dr Perkins, for Vermont, do have the number of gallons of syrup produced per year per tap for the last 10-20 years? I am just trying to identify good years and bad years and compare that to La Niña years.
    Yes, USDA https://www.nass.usda.gov/ produces that information in their annual reports back about 15 yrs I think. We have it for about 50 yrs, but it isn't publicly available at this point. That is probably too simplistic an analysis though, since both weather affects both sap sugar content and flow differentially to a substantial degree.

    The issue about sap flows that makes any type of forecast difficult is that it is almost a threshold response -- either freezing or thawed, so a difference of only a few degrees makes all the difference. The forecast is just not sensitive enough on many days to detect those types of changes. Plus there is often a good amount of variation from the ground to the crown of trees, and from the sugarhouse to the far reaches of the sugarbush. We see changes in our sugarbush on our Smartrek system that are just astounding at times. At times it is due just to a small degree in aspect, with the areas facing just 10-20 degrees further south starting earlier each day and earlier in the season than those facing just slightly more northerly. Elevation and drainage also plays a pretty big role in temperature variation as well. Our bush spans over about 500 ft in elevation from top to bottom. Big differences in flow timing due to that.

    What I've seen more often as "season-ending" or "season-limiting" weather is either: 1) season high temperature excursions of above 60 deg F lasting for 3+ days or 2) temperatures that remain slightly too cold (no or only a few good thaw periods) far into the "typical" date of the season, then turning to slightly too warm for the remainder of the season without any solid freezes.

    Bottom line...we spend an awful lot of time watching the forecast, which sometimes can help to key us in when the sap might flow, but then the real work comes when the trees say it is time.
    Dr. Tim Perkins
    UVM Proctor Maple Research Ctr
    http://www.uvm.edu/~pmrc
    https://mapleresearch.org
    Timothy.Perkins@uvm.edu

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Dec 2015
    Location
    Weston, CT
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    I have noticed over my short six years of tapping ( in my adult life ) and being so intimate with the 10 day, that it seems that the 10 day forecast for temperatures and wind speed deviate less from the predictions then do the 10 day predictions for sunshine, cloud cover and precip.

    But I guess that is because being off only a degree or two can dictate whether sunshine forms or clouds and precip form. Which are a much bigger differential, at least from an appearance point of view then a degree or two or three in Temp are.

    It seems that Sunshine and or precip/clouds forming in the skies is probably even more finicky ( less scientifically definable ) then sap flow forming in the trees is.

    With that said I am impressed with the forecasting ability they do have and can't blame them for not being so good just a few days out.

    The "10 day forcast" speaks volumes from its own terminology. As in .... "We are clueless beyond that" ... As in we could have 7 years of feast and 7 years of famine ... As in this is nothing new at all.

    One good thing about the bible is, is that it has taught me that weather trends have been around at least since the bible was written. However long that is. Other then that, it pretty much leaves me confused and provides no additional information on my maple sugaring conundrums!
    If you think it's easy to make good money in maple syrup .... then your obviously good at stealing somebody's Maple Syrup.

    Favorite Tree: Sugar Maple
    Most Hated Animal: Sap Sucker
    Most Loved Animal: Devon Rex Cat
    Favorite Kingpin: Bruce Bascom
    40 Sugar Maple Taps ... 23 in CT and 17 in NY .... 29 on gravity tubing and 11 on 5G buckets ... 2019 Totals 508 gallons of sap, 7 boils, 11.4 gallons of syrup.
    1 Girlfriend that gives away all my syrup to her friends.

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