I remember last year mid January it was ideal tapping weather and everyone was chomping at the bit. Finally Jan 22 I went for it as the 14 day looked ideal. Lots of people in CT were holding out. It never got cold last year after that and all the hold-out's ended up being forced into tapping two weeks later. In that two weeks it never got really cold and people missed two weeks of great running. Looking back, it seems like the end of January tapping was the right call.
The difference in winter so far between last year and this year is that last year it did get cold for a decent stretch beginning of January, where this season we have not have had hardly any prolonged cold. I do think/hope we will get one prolonged cold stretch so I plan on waiting at least two more weeks.
Just my $0.02 but I am a small time (60 Tap, 3rd season) newbie. I don't really think there is a correct answer as each situation is different, but I am learning to just watch the weather, understand historic weather trends, understand the current winter to date, understand maple research/traditions and mostly just go with your gut. I am also a big believer in Law-of-Averages, and weather trends almost always balance out (Although we are trending slightly warmer each year). Hot summer hopefully results in a cold winter and vice versa, so I try not to get so jumpy on that first warm up in January if it was a hot summer.
Good luck all! Can't wait for it to start. I'll be checking in here regularly to see what other CT folks are doing.