usually the weather in my area evens out right at the` sweet spot ` around mid to late feb but im also accounting for taphole life using CV spouts keeping in mind the general area that my season may come to the buddy end.... the weathermen guesses at the weather all the time, but if i guess then end up wrong = money and time lost. keeping a eye on the long term forcast the way its been- looking day after day, definitely helps ease the excitement of wanting to go out and tap everything thats for sure