Most studies relate budbreak and leaf emergence to growing degree days (GDD). Back in 2012, we encountered buddy off-flavor (which is quite rare for us) at the very earliest detectible budbreak (stage V1). https://www.uvm.edu/~entlab/Publicat...FieldGuide.pdf However things changed very quickly that year, so it might have been somewhere between V1 and V2. There aren't a lot of good data on sunny/cloudy for many sites, so that kind analysis is probably not going to happen. However sunny windless days will increase the temperature of the twigs/buds for sure.
Buddy is not detectible in the sap, but if you reduce the sap by at least 50% in a pan on the stove you can check the smell and flavor for buddy off-flavor. There is a group in Ontario looking at developing a "litmus paper" type test for buddy off-flavor precursors in sap.
I encourage all Vermont producers to monitor and report to https://vermontmaplebulletin.wordpress.com/ on the conditions of the season. More and better data are very very useful.