Energy and Cost Composition

[Frank Ivy]

For you guys who are doing this for a business, has anybody computed the % costs of producing syrup?

The reason I'm asking is because my area of focus in life is energy - specifically fossil fuels. My expectation is that energy prices are going to double and then triple in the next few years, and I'd like to know what percent of production is energy.

Does anybody who sells more than a few jugs of syrup a year have a brief breakdown of costs?

I'd like to know what the cost of a gallon of syrup will be when oil/propane/nat gas triple in price.

[KenWP]

Seems like good units use 3 gallons of oil to one gallon of syrup. I have no idea what oil costs down there as we use liters up here and I haven't had the tank filled in two years.
As to wood its seems to be around 15 gallons to a full cord. A bunch of different people are going to say they get this and others will say they get that but the industry averages with out ROs is around this figure. The ROs cut down on the boil times a lot and probbably save energy in the long run.
I would bet some people that make syrup burn a lot of energy that can't really be calculated to make syrup also.

[Frank Ivy]

Seems like good units use 3 gallons of oil to one gallon of syrup. I have no idea what oil costs down there as we use liters up here and I haven't had the tank filled in two years.
As to wood its seems to be around 15 gallons to a full cord. A bunch of different people are going to say they get this and others will say they get that but the industry averages with out ROs is around this figure. The ROs cut down on the boil times a lot and probbably save energy in the long run.
I would bet some people that make syrup burn a lot of energy that can't really be calculated to make syrup also.

Awesome Ken - thanks for the response. And your point about the non-calculable energy is dead on and really rather important. There are a lot of energy inputs unaccounted for if you simply use the number of gallons of ----- that you burn. Electric, cost of supplies (a lot of plastic is made from natural gas), pumps to generate water pressure, etcetera.

3 gallons of heating oil/diesel to one gallon of syrup? Diesel is about 3 right now, so that would be 9 bucks of diesel for one gallon? If a gallon is 40 bucks, then a basement of about 25% in energy is figured.

When heating oil goes to 9 bucks a gallon, that would mean that the fuel input for making a gallon will be 27 dollars. If that is rolled right into the price, then you're looking at almost 70 bucks a gallon.

Doing it with wood can be a lot less expensive, if you have the time to collect the wood, I suppose. I can fell, limb, buck, and split a cord of red oak with about 3 gallons of gasoline, and a gallon or two of diesel to bring it to where I want it. So figure 15 bucks a cord, or a buck a gallon, 3 bucks a gallon when prices triple.

2 questions -

1. Do wood-fired evaporators and other fuel-fired evaporators cost about the same and have the same lifespan?

2. How much energy do the RO units use? On Ebay the 4 grand unit is on a 240/20 amp circuit and can concentrate to 7% at 70 gallons an hour. That sounds pretty efficient, and I'd guess wouldn't cost more than a few cents a gallon.

[BryanEx]

Doing it with wood can be a lot less expensive, if you have the time to collect the wood, I suppose. I can fell, limb, buck, and split a cord of red oak with about 3 gallons of gasoline, and a gallon or two of diesel to bring it to where I want it. So figure 15 bucks a cord, or a buck a gallon...

Awesome! I've been meaning to figure out that cost for a few years now but always forget to keep track of what fuel I put in which tool and if it directly relates to maple syrup production. Thanks Frank Ivy.

[Thompson's Tree Farm]

Frank,
General rule is 4 gallons of oil for a gallon of syrup. Then the things like steam away etc make things more efficient. With an RO guys are getting down to 1/2 gallon of oil for a gallon of syrup. I know the RO pulls lots of electricity but not sure how much. I know when prices spiked a few years ago, I felt pretty good about the wood fire and hauling sap with horses. The new wood evaporator technology may prove to be an influence on how big guys may get before switching away from wood.

[maplwrks]

I get my fuel/syrup ratio down a little more---I run about a 1/3 gallon oil/ gallon of syrup. I let my RO do the work. The electric costs for the entire sugarhouse is around 50 cents a gallon. So this year with oil at 2.45 gallon and electric rates the way they are, I guess I'm about $1.30 energy costs to a gallon of syrup.

[KenWP]

Like I said your going to get all kinds of answers on this one. The RO ones don't count because your not boiling to get sugar your filtering out water. It does cut costs but for a price. I would like to see how much syrup pays for a RO.

[802maple]

A RO does come at a cost, but again there are alot of variables. If you are starting new it can be cheaper to set up with a RO and small evaporator then buying a big enough evaporator to do the job. Especially in construction of a sugarhouse also figured in. Lets take Maplwrks for example there isn't a evaporator made without adding a piggyback or steamaway that can produce as much syrup per hour that Mike does on his 2.5 x 8 and RO. If someone tried to accomplish that feat they would have $40,000 dollars wrapped up in a Evaporator that would require a huge sugarhouse to house it. Now in Mikes case he has a delightful operation but you would have a difficult time parking a car in there if there wasn't anything else in the building, yet he can make up to 20 gallons an hour easily.

[Haynes Forest Products]

Frank if fuel oil gets to 9 bucks a gallon Im thinking no one will be making syrup. Every cost will go thru the roof. At $4.00 we will all convert to wood.

[Bucket Head]

Forget about the syrup for a minute. If a gallon of fuel goes to $9, where will dairy and crop farming be? Nobody will be able to afford plain old food.

When the fuel hits $9, every maple tree around will be cut down for heat, ...or for something to eat.

Steve

[3rdgen.maple]

I have to agree there is no way this economy or even a good one would support 9 bucks for a gallon of fuel. I can not even think that would be happening anytime soon. We would see people riot and desperate acts to sustain the way we live. It would be one thing if the average income doubles or triples to offset that number but with that not happening anytime soon neither will the 9 bucks a gallon. Just my 2 cents

[PerryW]

On average, I burn 10 cords of pine slabs (waste from my sawmill) and make 120-130 gallons of syrup. I could probably make the same amount of syrup from 6 cords of hardwood.

My evaporator is 20 years old and should last another 20.

I use almost no electricity except for canning syrup and no fuel except gas for the sap truck.

[Frank Ivy]

Frank if fuel oil gets to 9 bucks a gallon Im thinking no one will be making syrup. Every cost will go thru the roof. At $4.00 we will all convert to wood.

Sure people will make syrup when oil gets to 9 bucks a gallon! They made maple syrup before fossil fuels were used, right?

Diesel was, briefly, 4 bucks a gallon in the summer of 08.
I'd be very surprised if diesel/fuel oil isn't back over 4 by the end of 2010. Could easily be 5 by then.

[Frank Ivy]

Forget about the syrup for a minute. If a gallon of fuel goes to $9, where will dairy and crop farming be? Nobody will be able to afford plain old food.
When the fuel hits $9, every maple tree around will be cut down for heat, ...or for something to eat.
Steve

First, fuel will, necessarily, get to 9 bucks a gallon at some point. That's very clear. The only question is when it will do so. My best estimate is within the next 3 years. Five years absolute max, unless the U.S. enters a depression and stays there, in which case the price of gasoline/diesel may stay down.

As for the price of food? I'd expect it to double or more if diesel prices tripled.

As for heat - people will just heat their homes to a lower temp. The concept of "whole house heated to 70 degrees" didn't exist in the public mind before about 1930, and didn't become common until after WWII. It's a concept premised on oil at 10 or 20 bucks a barrel. What people will do is what people did for thousands of years before we had central heat - they'll bundle up and stay close to the heat source.

Oh yeah - and stop living in 5,000 sf McMansions!

People will be able to afford "plain old food." I really like the way you put that. The food will get plainer.

I saw a very poor woman at the store the other day. She had kids. She looked very tired. I noticed she was buying Bisquick. Flour, sugar, baking soda, premixed. 3 or 4 bucks a box. If you mix it yourself. Maybe 50 cents for the same volume.

We'll relearn how to live on less.

If you're using wood to make maple syrup, in my opinion, your competitive advantage over those using fuel oil is going to go through the roof in the next few winters.

[Frank Ivy]

I have to agree there is no way this economy or even a good one would support 9 bucks for a gallon of fuel.

Very true. The economy will do very poorly as prices rise. The economy, is, in effect, based on the concept of cheap oil.


I can not even think that would be happening anytime soon.

I didn't either until about 4 years ago, which is when I earnestly began studying the oil production situation in the world.


We would see people riot and desperate acts to sustain the way we live.
This is, actually, incredibly insightful of you. You will see exactly what you have described. People will not want to believe that the great oil stash we inherited, which we always knew was limited, has finally begun to deplete. They will be in denial. They will, as you note, be desperate, and riot and such.


It would be one thing if the average income doubles or triples to offset that number but with that not happening anytime soon neither will the 9 bucks a gallon. Just my 2 cents

The average income is going to go down steadily for quite some time. It has been going down since about 99, and it will continue as the failing economy and rising energy costs continue.

Finally, I note sadly, that salaries and the condition of the U.S. economy are only a small part of what determines the cost of oil.

It was recently in the news that Saudi Arabia now, for the first time, ships more oil to China than to the U.S.. The U.S. is drowning in debt, and we won't be able to afford 150 dollar oil very easily - but the Chinese and the Indians will be very happy to have it at that price, and, short of military action, there won't be anything we can do to stop them from buying what they want of what's left, thereby driving the price up.

[Frank Ivy]

I know when prices spiked a few years ago, I felt pretty good about the wood fire and hauling sap with horses.

That is awesome, and it is my eventual goal. Hauling sap with a horse. That's a beautiful thing.

I've been hauling buckets by hand so far - hate firing up the tractor and rutting the property unless I absolutely need to, and I don't want to spend the money on four wheeler or some such thing.

[markcasper]

Frank, In all due respect, oil may get to $9.00 a gallon, but it will be because of US dollar devaluation/hyperinflation, not because there is no more oil in the ground.

There are vast oil resources around. Its the politics of the global elite that spins things such as peak oil, fossil fuel, and overpopulation, as well as global warming.

This earth will be long gone before it runs out of oil.

[Frank Ivy]

There are vast oil resources around.

All that matters is the rate at which we can get the oil out. How much is trapped in sand and/or rocks is not relevant. When the rate at which we can extract oil starts to decrease, oil gets more expensive over time.

In the 50s, a PhD by the name of Hubbert predicted U.S. oil supply would peak around 1970. In 1970 we produced all-time highs in the U.S. and everybody was scoffing at this guy. But a year or two later we produced less. Then less again. And he hit the nail on the head more than 10 years in advance. And the U.S. has been declining ever since, with a small blip when Alaska came on line. The guy went from nut job to genius overnight, and he was presenting oil info to Congress soon thereafter.

He also predicted in the 50s that world oil supply would peak around 2000. He was close - peak looks like it happened in 2005. He didn't account for the oil embargo, which pushed peak back a bit, and some fancy drilling, that pushed peak back a bit.

So, for a conspiracy theory of global elites sticking it to us to be considered plausible, it would have to go back to Hubbert, about 60 years ago. It would have to have had him on board, with his dead-on U.S. peak prediction and his 50 year prediction for world oil. The conspirators would all be dead by now!

In 1999 oil hit a low of about 12 dollars a barrel. A barrel! It's now at 80 bucks a barrel. That means oil has increased in price about 6.5 times in a mere 10 years.

Pretty simply, demand is high and supply is tapering off. Price spikes. The price spike to 140 bucks a barrel in summer 08 was a warning tremor.

In any case, even if you can account for the guy who was the prophet of U.S. oil peaking being in on a conspiracy that was started over 60 years ago, which seems to me impossible, then you're still looking at expensive oil going forward, so it's six of one, half dozen of the other. BTW - the conspiracy would have to involve the whole world, as there are pockets of oil in dozens of countries.

Here are some fact that indicate we're in deep doo-doo with oil production declining right now:

1. Mexico's decline rate is now so steep that they will not export any more oil within 2 or so years.

2. Saudi Arabia did not increase production during the 3 year run up in oil prices to 140 a barrel even though they would have made 8-10 times the money per barrel if they had.

3. Saudi Arabia - the world's largest producer and exporter - is now drilling offshore. If they had lots of oil left, why would they be blowing resources drilling for oil under the water, where it is more expensive to extract?

4. Oil price has remained high (80 a barrel) despite a morbid economy.

5. Refineries have been closing around the world. We are currently able to refine over 1 million barrels a day less than a year ago. Why would that be the case if more oil production was expected?

6. A report prepared for Congress at the request of Congress a few years back warned that oil peaking is imminent and Congressional action was urgently suggested. It was ignored, for the most part.

And many others.

Oil production is falling as I type this.

4 dollar gas caused heart burn in the U.S.. 10 dollar gas is going to cause a heart attack.

[802maple]

I was pretty upbeat when I wook up, but now after reading that the world is coming to an end, I am preparing for our demise.

Where do we go from here?

[Cabinet man]

I am trying to remember where I read it, but it said that many of the refineries that are shut down is not because of lack of oil, but to drive up prices and stabilize the market.

Have you heard this?

[Jim Brown]

Forgive me guys but now that we have solved the world problems lets move on to the present sugar season! My small operation uses about an extra 50.00 worth of electric per month during sugar season since it is hooked into my house bill my wife can tell with in a couple of dollars how much we use in the sugar operation. That said we use a 150 GPH Lapierrie RO(220 volts) and Leader Steamaway(fan runs on 110) on our 2x6 when concentrating to 8% we can make between 3-4 gallons of syrup per hour! We have figured in other cost, gas to run generators in the woods,gas to transport sap to sugarhouse,and a certain amount for replacement of equipt. and our cost per gallon last year was around $15.00-$16.00.
We also fire with wood and use about 4-5 face cords per year to make about 150 gallons of syrup

Just our two cents

Jim

[Thompson's Tree Farm]

'Nother oil cost is all this plastic we string around the woods....

[southdevonbeef]

Good point Doug...

[markcasper]

Frank, Everyone is free to believe what they want. I personally do not believe in the conspiracy of peak oil, global warming and oil coming from compressed dinosaurs.

Saudi Arabia, at least in the past, was held captive to the US to produce oil in an agreement they signed in the 70's.

The reason Iran is a thorn to the US is not because of nuclear material, but because most of their oil they are now selling is denominated in euros, something that Iraq once did and you know what happened there.

There are many more things to be concerned about other than oil depletion, the big one is top soil erosion, and thats something you can at least try to slow down.

[Revi]

I am revi on peak oil forums as well. I know a few people are aware, like VTsnowedin, but I didn't know that there were so many others on this site.

Great minds think alike.

I have been aware of this since at least 2000.

Maple syruping is part of our strategy to make it through the problems coming from peak oil.

We bought a woodlot and have been heating with half wood for about 10 years now.

I don't know if we can really make it through what's coming, but we have cut our fossil fuel use in half.

The way I see it we'll be in serious trouble around 2011 or 2012, so I hope to be even less dependent on fossil fuels by then.

Here's an article about the upcoming problems around that time:

http://www.energyinvestmentstrategies.com/2009/03/07/when-will-the-oil-price-pop/#comment-4620

[Clan Delaney]

I'm boiling with wood, and for me the cost is in that difficult to measure "labor" category. I'm small enough to be able to gather and process what I need in the off season. So, I consider my fuel cost to be zero (well, there's the propane for finishing, and the electricity used in the shack). I realize larger operations that use wood need to buy it (processed or unprocessed) because the cost in labor is prohibitively high.

I guess the season where I can't at least break even on costs, I'll be done. But I'll still be making it for myself.

[Frank Ivy]

I am trying to remember where I read it, but it said that many of the refineries that are shut down is not because of lack of oil, but to drive up prices and stabilize the market.

Have you heard this?

No, I have not. Refineries are really expensive to build. "Shutting them down to drive up price" would require a world-wide conspiracy.

Refineries make money by refining. If they close down, they make no money. Further, if there was plenty of oil and refineries closed down, the price of oil should drop. It hasn't. It's been going up.

There are many, many vested interests that want you to believe that all is well and we have enough energy for . . . well, forever.

If that was the case, why has natural gas gone from 20 cents a unit to 5-10 bucks a unit in a few decades? Why has oil gone 5x times in price in 10 years?

Simple. Supply demand. Supply outstrips demand, prices go up.

[Frank Ivy]

We also fire with wood and use about 4-5 face cords per year to make about 150 gallons of syrup

Jim

Thanks for the input Jim - very helpful.

Question - I thought a "face cord" was a third of a cord. So you used only 1.3 or 1.6 cords of wood for 150 gallons? That's awesome. RO working well.

[Frank Ivy]

Frank, Everyone is free to believe what they want. I personally do not believe in the conspiracy of peak oil, global warming and oil coming from compressed dinosaurs.

Well, several hundred years of chemistry and geology have quite conclusively shown that the organic hydrocarbon in oil were formed over a long period of time from biological organisms that existed a long time ago - mostly algae material, not dinosaurs.

If somebody doesn't want to believe the current, basic understanding of basic chemistry, then I suppose that person is free to believe whatever they like. Me? I'm constrained by an in-depth knowledge of the chemistry involved.

Nonetheless, energy has been getting more expensive - dramatically so - for the last 5-10 years, and there is no doubt about that.

[Frank Ivy]

I am revi on peak oil forums as well. . . .

Maple syruping is part of our strategy to make it through the problems coming from peak oil.

We bought a woodlot and have been heating with half wood for about 10 years now.

I don't know if we can really make it through what's coming, but we have cut our fossil fuel use in half.

The way I see it we'll be in serious trouble around 2011 or 2012 . . .

Hah, Revi! 2012? You always were a cornucopian doomer. It'll be a miracle to get to 2012 without the SHTF. Even some of the more obvious cornucopians at TOD have started to get doomerish. Once you figure in LEM and EROEI losses, the backside looks like the Mattterhorn. I was ahead of the curve Revi! You'd recognize my PO.com name if I posted it. I stopped posting there because the site was losing its appeal on several fronts.

Not sure maple sugaring is a post peak activity. The syrup will be a luxury item - much like it is now.

[markcasper]

Frank....If you believe doomsday is inevitable and in only a year or two, first you should have LOTS of guns and ammo, clips, enough storable food for many years, water, and a solar generater.

Lets see here, when it gets that bad and desperation hits the streets, we will be the first people to get looted and shot. So better prepare now.

BTW, did you know that known reserves of oil have actually doubled in the last decade! Some food for thought. It is being hidden from people because that would drive the price down.

As for oil reaching $147 a barrel a short time ago, that was all done on purpose by the big bank specualtors. Not because of lack of oil, but because of greed. They profited driving it up and profited on the way down.

[vtsnowedin]

Not sure maple sugaring is a post peak activity. The syrup will be a luxury item - much like it is now.
Post peak all food will be a luxury item. Seventy five gallons of syrup amounts to one million calories or the equivalent of one years food for an active person. The guy who has it will be able to trade it for the other things he needs. And what else are you going to do with twenty acres of maples post peak?

[markcasper]

You fellas need to read the following:

http://www.infowars.com/experts-push-peak-oil-scam-to-predict-15-a-gallon-gas-prices/

http://www.infowars.com/articles/nwo/oil_price_200_dollar_barrel_bilderberg_plan_destro y_middle_class.htm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_globalist_scam.htm

http://www.infowars.com/peak-oil-3-to-43-billion-barrels-of-oil-assessed-in-north-dakota-and-montana/

http://www.infowars.com/goldman-sachs-bilderberg-target-of-200-dollar-oil-nears/

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/oil_world_oil_supply_still_plentiful_study_shows.h tm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/science/oil_gulf_of_mexico_saturated_with_oil.htm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/global_oil_scam_for_big_profits.htm

[Frank Ivy]

Frank....If you believe doomsday is inevitable and in only a year or two, first you should have LOTS of guns and ammo, clips, enough storable food for many years, water, and a solar generater.


Have lots of guns, ammo - grow own food, water all around, no need for a generator - electricity is optional. I'm all prepped.



BTW, did you know that known reserves of oil have actually doubled in the last decade! Some food for thought.

So when gasoline arrives at 10 bucks a gallon and the govt rations it and there are people in the street getting shot - you'll still believe that there's plenty of oil? The elites just are begging for a revolution? I don't agree.

I think that you and I could pass on our donkey carts and you'd still tell me that there's plenty of oil. Oh well. We'll have to agree on the price and disagree on the cause!:cry:

[vtsnowedin]

You fellas need to read the following:

http://www.infowars.com/experts-push-peak-oil-scam-to-predict-15-a-gallon-gas-prices/

http://www.infowars.com/articles/nwo/oil_price_200_dollar_barrel_bilderberg_plan_destro y_middle_class.htm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_index.htm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/peak_oil_globalist_scam.htm

http://www.infowars.com/peak-oil-3-to-43-billion-barrels-of-oil-assessed-in-north-dakota-and-montana/

http://www.infowars.com/goldman-sachs-bilderberg-target-of-200-dollar-oil-nears/

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/oil_world_oil_supply_still_plentiful_study_shows.h tm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/science/oil_gulf_of_mexico_saturated_with_oil.htm

http://www.infowars.com/articles/economy/global_oil_scam_for_big_profits.htm

Been there, read that, filed it in the appropriate file.:rolleyes:

[Frank Ivy]

Been there, read that, filed it in the appropriate file.:rolleyes:

Yeah. There are conspiracies out there. But it's a problem with you (or Alex) see a conspiracy in everything.

I could see it now. We all get together to tap a 1000 tree forest. Round about March 20th the flow starts to slow down. We conclude that the saps running out and we'll been done soon. Somebody argues that either the sap doesn't really come from the trees or that the trees are conspiring to make us poor.

[TF Maple]

I wasn't expecting a discussion like this on this site. Silly me!
I think we need a political thread somewhere if there isn't one.

I blame the futures market for the high price of oil. If Rebels attack the pipeline in Nigeria, the price goes up as if the supply of oil has been slowed down. I realize there is that potential, but I don't think the price should go up until an actual slowdown in the supply happens. That would be actual supply and demand at work. Having the price of oil go up because there is a news story with no interuption in supply is obvious speculation. I blame that speculation on our high prices. To me it is that simple, even though there is nothing simple about it.

Now back to the original reason for this thread.
I'm burning wood this year and don't ever want to burn oil because I like tending a fire and enjoy making wood. I like using up the dead and unwanted trees in my sugar bush. I don't know what my costs are at this time, but know that with future growth it will become something I will be concerned with.
For now, I just want to have FUN and make syrup. It is so cool to collect sap from the wild and make something sweet and great from it.

[Frank Ivy]

I blame the futures market for the high price of oil.. . . Having the price of oil go up because there is a news story with no interuption in supply is obvious speculation.

This might make sense in the short term. But oil has now been in the 75+ dollar range for quite some time. At some point, if it was only speculation, the price would collapse for lack of fundamentals.

And again, energy of all kinds is much more expensive than it was 10 years ago.

[maplwrks]

Frank--You asked a very good question at the start of this thread. It was a question that all sugarmakers try to keep in check, the waste of fuels to produce a product. Where the hell did the doomsday speech come from. I really don't think that this is the forum or the place for this kind of crap. We all enjoy making a product that people love, let's leave it at that! Let's move on---and keep all of the political and doomsday talk for other forums on the web.

YAGOTTAWANIT!! Mike

[TF Maple]

This might make sense in the short term. But oil has now been in the 75+ dollar range for quite some time. At some point, if it was only speculation, the price would collapse for lack of fundamentals.I do wonder how the price has stayed this high this long. But I bet when the price went up to the 70's around 1979 that we could have found people telling us the price would never go much lower, but it went very much lower and for a fairly long period of time.
I'm not one to argue points like this, I have a lot of patience and will just wait and see if you are right or wrong.
Interesting discussion, just think it needs it's own thread.

[802maple]

[QUOTE=Frank Ivy;100258]This might make sense in the short term. But oil has now been in the 75+ dollar range for quite some time. At some point, if it was only speculation, the price would collapse for lack of fundamentals.

I do wonder how the price has stayed this high this long. But I bet when the price went up to the 70's around 1979 that we could have found people telling us the price would never go much lower, but it went very much lower and for a fairly long period of time.
I'm not one to argue points like this, I have a lot of patience and will just wait and see if you are right or wrong.
Interesting discussion, just think it needs it's own thread.

What I find interesting is factoring in inflation the price of fuel in the late seventies and early 80's was much higher then today.

[Hop Kiln Road]

Hi Frank, I little too linear for me. We're integrating into a global economy which is going to take more than a generation. Right now much of the fluctuation is not supply and demand but because oil prices are quoted in US dollars which have a supply and demand fluctuation of their own. I think within a couple of decades the remaining currencies will float based some non political unit, like a k calories of energy. The problem we face is global debt, notes and bonds, is also based on the US dollar and the US appears to be doing everything it can think of to inflate the dollar. The poor Chinese and Arabs who hold our debt are only legally entitled to be repayed in dollars and they are nervous, and stuck. So here is my question: why doesn't the US issue anything larger than a $100 bill and whose idea was it? Bruce

[3rdgen.maple]

Maplwrks I agree with you 100% time to move on. Frank not to be a thread smasher but I think the Traders Sight Rules are in need of being read. This is a Maple forum. The thread had the potential to be good and we all have gotten a little carried away.

[WESTVIRGINIAMAPLER]

Far as I am concerned God is in control and he isn't sitting in Heaven wringing his hands and worrying about it. Let's make syrup and quit slinging mud. Maybe it will be doomsday in a couple of years, but let's do the best we can and let the chips fall where they may.

[johnallin]

Maplwrks I agree with you 100% time to move on. Frank not to be a thread smasher but I think the Traders Sight Rules are in need of being read. This is a Maple forum. The thread had the potential to be good and we all have gotten a little carried away.

You are right 3rdGen....this is a forum promoting maple syrup - that's as simple as it can get. For me, if it gets off topic and turns into "rivi" or whatever wierdo site, or becomes infested with those who are into conspriacy/UFO/ fireman jokes /crazy eyed stuff we need to remind them that none of that has a tinkers dam to do with what this is all about.

I am not a joiner nor do I belong to any "site" other than this one. This is about maple and I have learned much here in 2 years and it has helped me in one of my chosen hobbies. There are lots of other places for you to spin your thoughts about "the end" and how many guns you have - keep it maple and don't push your agendas on me. Thank you

[markcasper]

[QUOTE=TF Maple;100273][PHP]

What I find interesting is factoring in inflation the price of fuel in the late seventies and early 80's was much higher then today.

Granted we all want to put this thread to rest. I must comment on what Jerry said. Fuel is still amazingly cheap in comparison to say medical costs and insurance. They have went up much more % than fuel has.

Everyone needs to be aware that one US dollar buys an average 96% less today than in it did in 1913. I can assure you that is no conspiracy, its a fact.Though this has nothing to do with maple, everyone seems to have something to say about it when they go to buy maple equipment and is most noticeable on the big items. Thats why an evaporator is now thousands of dollars and not hundreds.

[PATheron]

Guys- Im a posative person and so Im going to post this. In Pennsylvania there is a ton of natural gas exploration. They are pulling it out of the marcellus shale here. If you think there is no drilling in the US right now to any extent your wrong on that. Right now there are hundreds of wells that have been drilled. Each well cost one to three million dollars to build by the sounds of it. East resources alone, and there are other companies drilling too, say they will drill 6000 to 7000 wells alone in the next two years. The entire mid to northern part of the state has this marcellus shale and so doesnt the southern part of York state. So what Im saying is there's a posative side to every negative. I think when the oil got so expensive per barrell it made it profitable to go after this gas. Thats my thought anyway. Probly when some form of energy goes up in cost it makes another more attractive to go get. Maybe they will replace a lot of things that run on oil with the gas. That would be nice then we could keep our money here instead of sending it overseas. Theron

[KenWP]

The gas has been worth more then the oil for some time. Like 20 years or more. There is a big market for gas and it's easyier to move then crude. Those shallow gas wells they are drilling add up. They are drilling millions of them in Alberta also into the coal beds which Alberta is full of.
There is lots of oil deposits but they are heavy oil and it costs almost as much as the oil is worth to get it out of the ground.If they figure that out there is oil for some time and if the price goes up then they can afford to get to it also.

[vtsnowedin]

To take a try at getting this thread back on a maple track lets consider the cost of wood. It certainly isn't free by the time you have it at the loading door of your arch. You have had to buy it or gather/cut it and move it pile move it again usually and pile it again. There are cost there from saw gas, tractor or pickup truck time and your labor which I would hope none of us considered worthless. For example I bought some slab wood this fall for ten dollars a bundle which sawed up to about a half cord per bundle. It cost me another ten bucks per bundle to get it trucked to my yard and dumped in a place where the truck could dump safely. Then I had to saw it up and move it to the sugar shed using the tractor and wearing out a $20 saw chain on the very dirty and frozen slabs and spent about ten hours doing six cord spread out over a few days. So this cheap slabwood has cost me at least $50 per cord plus my time. With out RO or a steamhood I may be around fifteen gallons of syrup per cord so that gives me a fuel cost of around $3.33/ gallon.
Wood cut out of the sugarbush and the surrounding woods may cost less but if you throw in a fair factor for the tractor payments and wood splitter I doubt if you will average much less.
Oh by the way, I'm happy to leave the peak oil/population bomb/climate change stuff over at peak oil. It's nice to separate that from the much more positive topic of making maple.

[Frank Ivy]

Happy to not post any more on this thread.

Just gotta point out - - -

1. Not "pushing my agenda" on anybody. Feel free not to read anything I write. I won't come knock on your door or yell in the streets!
2. Energy IS the most critical issue to the price of maple syrup, and so, by extension, what is going to happen to the price of energy is important. As it is, maple syrup is extremely expensive, and thinking about where the price goes is important.
3. If you are making syrup for a living or part of your living and you're using oil or natural gas to fire your evaporator, I'd recommend reading more - you can PM if you want so that we can avoid the public dissemination of knowledge.
4. I've always been puzzled why people get personal about something as impersonal as energy. I say that diesel will soon be getting much more expensive based on my research into oil production, and suddenly I'm attacked for "doom and gloom" and "having an agenda" and all sorts of other things. Never understood why stating an empirical conclusion is a personal offense to people. It's like I'm a at party and I note that the beer is running out and some big drunk guy yells at me - "hey buddy - just what the ----- are you trying to say?"

[ennismaple]

The uncertain future cost of oil was the deciding factor in us buying the Force 5. Our cost to cut and split wood growing on our property won't fluctuate much over time!

[markcasper]

One thing not addressed here is the devaluation of the dollar over time in relation to oil prices. That is no conspiracy theory. Its all "the price will be 9 bucks a gallon in a year or 2.period.

As for the vtsnowedin saying 50 bucks a cord for his cost.Tell the yard you don't want slabs that have been on the ground.

One thing I was thinking, this great land was not settled and got going strong by crude oil! It was done with coal and wood and there is nothing saying it couldn't go back to that way. To think that this whole US was developed and settled by basically a steam powered locomotive is simply amazing to me! We all think we have got technology today, yet that to me was technology, go from a buggy to something traveling 90 mph.

[Revi]

I agree, Mark Casper. We are starting a transition initiative in our town to figure out a way to make it through the changes that have already begun. One great thing about this town is the fact that practically every working farm within 5 miles has been taken over by a young person in the past 5 years. The farmer's market folks are a really motivated bunch of 20 somethings with kids and energy to make this place work even if gas hits $9 a gallon.

Back on topic, we use a lot of really crappy wood in the evaporator. I find a lot of it on the brush pile at the dump. It is perfect for us, but it wouldn't work for people who are using it in a woodstove. We cut it at about 2 or 3 feet and it works perfectly for the evaporator. We lug some out of the woodlot as well, but we keep the good stuff for the home fires. Basswood, pine and popple work fine in the evap, and they don't have much value otherwise.

It keeps honest people honest as well, since it wouldn't be worth it to steal our crappy wood which is cut too long. Still we go through probably two hundred dollars worth of wood by the end of the season. I think I probably burned a quarter of a cord the last boil. We have about 3 cords in the woodshed. It is about the right amount for us, since we aren't going to quit our day jobs. Cutting and stacking three cords isn't bad at all.

[Jeff E]

Here is a laymans attempt at justifying the use of an RO and Steamaway:

I am curious how you all take this. please comment.

[Jim Brown]

Jeff E. Like I have always said 'bigger is not always better" Smarter is better!
Great Info!

Jim

[Clan Delaney]

Here is a laymans attempt at justifying the use of an RO and Steamaway:

I am curious how you all take this. please comment.


By my math, you've reduced your energy usage by 85%!! Since all that savings is in firewood, that equals just shy of 32 cords of wood saved. How much is a cord of wood? If you multiply that by 32, does it equal enough to buy an RO and/or Steamaway? Nice.

I really liked the conversion factors for BTU's to KWH, and the amount of BTU's in a cord of hardwood. It makes me want to figure out how much $$$ I was wasting by boiling with propane.

[Jeff E]

For me the time savings in wood cutting and boiling was the factor. It made this upgrade from making 50 gallons a year to 50 gallons a day doable. I still work full time and am involved with kids and church and life so being able to take advantage of these efficiencies is great.

Your right, I went from needing about 35 cords to needing 8 cords.

[vtsnowedin]

You need to go to page two of your assessment and finish it.
Plug in a cost for a cord of wood as the KWh you saved were in wood you need to use the KWH cost of wood. Using your figures and $100/cord for hardwood that would be about $.02/KWH. The electricity used to run the RO and the blower for the steam away would be at your local rate, perhaps $.12/KWH. Then you need to add in the capital costs of the RO and the Steam Away, any interest cost, The cost of chemicals and filters, maintenance costs/ cleaning supplies etc. for ten years and then subtract any salvage costs you think you can recover by selling the equipment at the end of the ten years. Add in the cost of the heated room for the RO and the fuel or electric to heat it. Add in insurance cost as its too big an investment to let sit around uninsured. Now deduct the net reduction in labor cost at a realistic price for someone capable of running all this mid tech. equipment. At least $15.00/hr minimum. Your figures show a reduction of boiler time of 214 hours per year but setup and maintenance of the RO and SA might use up a third to a half of that.
OK pencils ready...... GO.

[Jeff E]

You need to go to page two of your assessment and finish it. I will give it a go....Plug in a cost for a cord of wood as the KWh you saved were in wood you need to use the KWH cost of wood. Using your figures and $100/cord for hardwood that would be about $.02/KWH.
I get my wood off of my land, cost is labor and equipment. The important aspect of this for me is I had the land, had the equipment, was spending the time. I am simply now getting a much higher return for my investment
The electricity used to run the RO and the blower for the steam away would be at your local rate, perhaps $.12/KWH. Then you need to add in the capital costs of the RO and the Steam Away, any interest cost, The cost of chemicals and filters, maintenance costs/ cleaning supplies etc. for ten years and then subtract any salvage costs you think you can recover by selling the equipment at the end of the ten years.
Equipment cost about $1800 per year, for the life of the equipment, I assumed 15 years
Add in the cost of the heated room for the RO and the fuel or electric to heat it.
Built the sugarhouse, $12K in materials, which will appreciate, not depreciate, heat with same wood boiler system I had for the house. Made my own heat exchanger out of a radiator, total cost $500
Add in insurance cost as its too big an investment to let sit around uninsured.
$650
Now deduct the net reduction in labor cost at a realistic price for someone capable of running all this mid tech. equipment. At least $15.00/hr minimum.
I was doing the work/time already, as a hobbiest, so I dont count that.
Your figures show a reduction of boiler time of 214 hours per year but setup and maintenance of the RO and SA might use up a third to a half of that.

Set up is 16 hours tops, maint. is done while finishing boiling each day, no additional time out of my day. Filters and wash total maybe $120 annually
OK pencils ready...... GO.

Bottom line, as I see it, I added expenses of about $3000 per year and upto 1 added week of labor per year for cleanup and setup (sugar house, not sugar bush) to make an additional 700 gallons of syrup per year. At wholsale $30 per gallon, the math was easy to say 'go'.
Remember, I was already 'doing the time' on my old 2x8, and loving it, so the variable in this for my math was I wanted to do this with my time and energy. If I was looking at it from a pure cost benefit, Labor would kill this math.

[vtsnowedin]

[I]
Bottom line, as I see it, I added expenses of about $3000 per year and upto 1 added week of labor per year for cleanup and setup (sugar house, not sugar bush) to make an additional 700 gallons of syrup per year. At wholsale $30 per gallon, the math was easy to say 'go'.
Remember, I was already 'doing the time' on my old 2x8, and loving it, so the variable in this for my math was I wanted to do this with my time and energy. If I was looking at it from a pure cost benefit, Labor would kill this math.
.
Oh I didn't do the math. I could not as I have no way of knowing your cost for the RO. The start to this thread asked about people doing it as a business so to me that means you have to add in the labor. That does not mean that things can not add up positively if you include all costs. Saving 150 to 200 hours of labor to produce 750 gallons of syrup will cover a lot of other costs and may well make the RO and the Steam Away a good business decision if you have the taps to use them at a decent rate. As much fun as this is it's a lot more fun if your breaking even or a little better. :)