Are we at the bottom looking up ?

[WF MASON]

A customer was in this week , he was heading south with the family(fla.), his father had called to say Cypress gardens had closed , Disney had closed part of their rides and any restaurant you went in was only half full. My sister was also looking to head that way , buy three nights at Disney get four extra free. Wow. I know politices are out of the question here , but with the stimululs bill passed is everyone waking up with a lobster in their pot? Or will we even know the difference?

[Dave Y]

I don't like to be pessimistic but I don't think we are any where near the bottom yet. You will know when your are by the feel of the gravel embedded in your back side. as far as the stimulus goes, it is throwing good money after bad. If they where serious about stimulating the economy they would give it to the tax payers and give them 90 days to spend it or give it back. that way we might be able to dig ourselves out of debt and by doing so get the economy moving again. After all, we ultimately are going to pay for it in the end.

[TapME]

this is no better than a teenager with credit cards and no job. They will spend it but never pay it back and extend the problem from today to 2 or more years from now. I just wish that I could spend like they do and not have to balance the check book. What do you expect from people that never had a real job in there lives. It's living in a dream world. Don't get me started.

[HHM-07]

My toughtsare i think we may be near the bottom now but will be here for awhile yet. I agree give the taxpayers the cash they will get the economy going in a hurry Part of our long term solution to this has got to be term limits, stop treating our reps as employees and treat it as a chance to serve our country for EIGHT YEARS ONLY then move on let someone else serve

Dick

[forester1]

Part of the problem is they all get their neckties from the same store.

[Acer]

Yup! and a new bottom today and another after that!
As long as you keep looking up you'll do alright.

******(insert abolished political rant here)****

D

[maple flats]

I think we are at or real close to the bottom. I base this on the stock market which seems to drive the economy. It hit low on Nov 20, 2008. Since then it has been between 7500 and 8500 in typical up/down fashion. This is where businesses will start to make a move to grab a section of the market. When it does things start to move again. This will be a long process and we may see some further layoffs before the job market grows to any extent but after the fluttering at the bottom ends we will slowly emerge. People and businesses may spend wiser with less neck stretching (credit buying) but the economy will start to grow. I think more growth will be in small businesses rather than large until the trend for growth becomes more obvious but that is traditionally where most job creation has happened since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Business will never look like it did 5 years ago but we will have a growing economy.
In the mean time make as much syrup as you can. It will always have real value in terms of what you can buy with what you sell. I however hold little hope for the STIMULUS package, I think small business will end up being the stimulus.

[Bucket Head]

I agree with TapMe.

The politicians are so out of touch with the working class, they will never see it from the point of veiw that they need to. Do you really think they care how much a gallon of gas, fuel oil, or milk costs them? The increases in their property and school taxes are a non-issue. Their children will be attending the very best (expensive) universities. Losing their job is not a concern. I could go on here but I have to stop.

As far as the stimulus, I don't know if its going to work like they say its going to. I have my doubts.

I can tell you that the "getting americans back to work" part is a farce. How are they going to get the thousands upon thousands of people who lost a job reemployed?

Even if the economy improves, the business owners who sent part of their workforce out the door, will not hire them all back. Most of those folks who have lost a job recently will never again do what they did, nor will they earn what they did.

Pretty soon the American Dream, for many, will simply be "eating".

Steve

[KenWP]

I grew up in Alberta and we had a few down turns in the 80s. The 90s and up until last year were pretty good in a way also. The only problem was that it cost a fortune to rent or buy a place to live. The price of a house in the town I lived in almost doubled in the space of 5 years. Now all these people have these high priced homes and no or reduced jobs trying to pay for them. My brother runs a truss company and he went from last year not being able to hire anybody to work to now hardley haveing enough to keep himself busy.
I was in farming and when the price of pigs went down we would hold off hireing new staff a lot of the time and just work harder untill we could afford some staff again. I got so that I got more done with less people and never did anybody after awhile. I can see a lot of other companys doing the same thing also.

[few trees]

Rely on yourself is the answer. Remember the the most dreaded words since the depression of the 1930's "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."


I got an email that I wish I could share with you all which sums up the feelings of a lot of people in this country and not in a good way. If you would like to read it email me and I will forward it to you.

Ed

[Fred Henderson]

A sobering thought. All this stimulus money was borrowed from China. At some point this has to be paid back and if it not China could end up with a few or all western states being owned by them.

[tapper]

Was this latest stimulus borrowed from China? I know the money some received last year was borrowed from China but as far as this last deal I've recently heard that China wont lend the U.S. any more money.
If this is true China is just one of who our elected officials have been selling the U.S. off to for decades!

[TapME]

to further the thought about credit cards think about this. Uncle Sam is borrowing money the same way and for the same reasons that all of the Americans have been doing for a while. Instead of it being hundreds of million cards it is just one. My guess is the same results will happen.

If they believe as politicians that this is the best course then they should give there income they earn to it to help all us the need it. And I mean all gov employees. Catch your attention stop and think just how many people receive a check for government and it will boggle your mind. Just a small opinion on a big problem.

[Hop Kiln Road]

We don't really borrow. The US sells a Treasury Note, to say the Chinese or the Saudis, at auction and the price they bid fixes the interest rate. The Note is secured by the "full faith and credit and the United States of America," or in essence our economy and our government's legal ability to tax our citizens. The holder of the note may choose to resell the Treasury Note to a third party and if they cut a deal at less than face value of the Note - because say the new buyer thinks the risk of uninflated repayment is higher or that Americans might be incapable of paying their taxes - then interest rates have suddenly gone up. My point is the underlying risk of selling more Treasury Notes, in order to fund a stimulus package, than the economy's ability to handle is not foreclosure but inflation.

[few trees]

Maybe we should go back on the gold standard. I would rather have the money backed by gold than the "full faith and and credit of the Uniter States" which now is very low.

Ed

[benchmark]

Are we at the bottom yet? Hopefully were there, but i have my doubts. I think the stimulus that passed is a very bad thing. Of course what do I know, I'm just a citizen and the government know best, right?

Some quotes here i'm sure everyone has heard before-

"The government is best which governs least."
-- Thomas Jefferson

"A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have."

-- Gerald Ford

Enough said!

[OGDENS SUGAR BUSH]

think about this. how do you borrow yourself out of debt?

RICH

[RUSTYBUCKET]

Good one RIch.

We were discussing this last night and the general consensus sided with, no we haven't hit bottom yet. If the bailout money was distributed to families, I wonder what the payout would be?

Russ

[few trees]

divide $789,000,000,000 by 305,811,250 people. The caculator on the computer wont take the large numbers.

[Clan Delaney]

divide $789,000,000,000 by 305,811,250 people. The caculator on the computer wont take the large numbers.

Two thousand, five hundred and eighty two dollars. And two cents. For every man, woman and child, as they say.

Still, that'd be $10320 for my household of 4. For that, I could get myself out from under two loans, and cut my student loan debt in half.

My wife heard a story on the radio earlier this week that was trying to put the dollars being spent in this crisis into some kind of perspective. I wish I could quote a source, but I'll have to wait for her to get home and ask her. Anyway, the gist of it was that if you added up all the monies being spent, it would be enough to pay the balance of every single mortgage holder in the US. Obviously, that's never going to happen but (much like fantasizing how I'd spend one million dollars if I won it in the lottery) there's no harm in imagining how that might work.... I'll not do that here, though. :)

[brookledge]

My local paper today had a headline saying "What will you do with extra $13/week". I chose not to read the article at this time because the whole stimulus package is so big and unbelievable large that I don't think the government will be able to administer it.
Anyways I said to myself if I'm going to get 13 bucks more in my paycheck per week that = $676 per year. But getting 13 bucks per week I'll never really notice it. I'd rather have it like Bush gave it as a lump sum.
I voted for Obama but I think he is trying to do to much all at once. It is mind boggling the amount of money they are talking about.
Keith

[Homestead Maple]

http://www.voddiebaucham.org/vbm/Blog/Entries/2009/2/7_Did_Anyone_See_This_Collapse_Coming_Yup!.html

These videos take a little time to watch but from this you might be able to decide how long it will take to get the economy rolling again. The videos really got my attention.

[Revi]

I think that the only parts of the stimulus that will do anything are the parts that deal with energy efficiency and alternative energy. The rest of it is nice, but there is no new energy coming in to the system, so it's just printing money.

[benchmark]

Actually your only going to get $13/per week until November or so, then it drops $8/per week after that.

[brookledge]

That is pathetic, so when I get that $8.00 in my check I'm going to do what with it? I won't even feel the effects of it. I'm not going to be able to go to the bank and say I'm making 8 bucks more a week so I deserve a loan to buy what ever or go to a store and buy something meaningful that will last for more than a day. When I got the last stimulus money (1800) for myself and two kids. We decided to spend it like it was designed and not hold it so I bought new things for my home like new appliances and new flooring.
But how am I to do that with 13 or 8 bucks a week?
Keith

[Clan Delaney]

Yeah, eight bucks a week doesn't encourage me to go buy new things: car computer, TV, etc. For me, all it'll do it take away my guilt over buying coffee at work, cuz I'll be getting reimbursed for it. Heh.

My kids, who (like all kids) are experts at what is and isn't fair (Them: She got Frosted Flakes and I got Honey Nut Cheerios! It's not FAIR! Me: You both got breakfast, what's unfair about that? GAh!) would probably say this about how the money is being given out: Well, since last time all the banks got gimungous amounts of money and we had to go ask them for it, it's only fair that this time we should get the ginormous amounts of money and they should have to ask us to spend it. :D Can you imagine... Bank of America getting a check for, oh, $38 a week? Hey, that's almost an extra 2 grand a year! I'll add it to the list of Things I'll Never See, right under the magical maple that gives grade A fancy instead of sap when tapped.

[WESTVIRGINIAMAPLER]

This sums it all up:

The cover of Time Magazine recently read after the election " We are now all Socialists" which is basically one step below communism.

As far as the gold stanard, it appears this may be taking off.

[sapsucker]

It seems that many people are upset because the banks and other special interest groups are getting a ton of money, yet the common worker gets a bailout of only a few dollars a week. Where's our huge bailout? The answer to that question is simple. The government is broke and can only redistribute wealth from the productive to the unproductive. You see, the people on this thread are productive and make an honest living. Just as we tap into trees, the government taps into us. And just like the trees, we only have a limited amount of sap to give!

[Revi]

The US borrows about 2 billion dollars a day, mostly from China and Japan.

The average person in the US uses about 3 gallons of petroleum products per day, but we only pump about 1 gallon per person here in the US. The other 2 gallons that people use to drive around costs around $4 a day.

4 times 300 million is about 1.2 billion. Add in all the crap we buy at wally world and you get to the 1.8 billion dollars a day we borrow.

That means we're borrowing money just to keep ourselves driving around.

Unless we can get a handle on our petroleum addiction I can see no way to get back to financial solvency.

We make 2 dollars a day and spend six.

We should cut down to just a gallon of petroleum a day per person.


At least mapling is producing food with petroleum or wood energy.

We are making one of the few products that makes sense.

[Clan Delaney]

Just as we tap into trees, the government taps into us. And just like the trees, we only have a limited amount of sap to give!

I'd like to request that I be tapped responsibly, in accordance to my diameter, and in an even pattern around my, um, girth. I'd also like to request a tubing system, but no vacuum.

[Bucket Head]

Apparently, all of us "workers" are already on a vacuum system.

We've been on it for a while now...

Sorry Clan, your on it too.

How long before the tree's, ...um, I mean..., the worker's dry up?

Steve

[gmcooper]

That money the US borrows from China and Japan everday. IT USED TO BE OURS!

[Revi]

That money the US borrows from China and Japan everday. IT USED TO BE OURS!

Exactly. The US government prints it, and the Federal Reserve buys it for 3 cents a bill, no matter what the denomination is. Then they "lend" it back to us, or to the Chinese or whoever.

It's a crazy system.

I just hope it keeps going for a little while longer.

[markcasper]

The problem is not going to get better, it will never get better! The glory days of the US are over.
The real problem is that our government has been hijacked by an elite group of elitists, large multinational corporations and international bankers. The Federal Reserve system of 1913 is illegal in accordance with the US constituion. However, it was passed and put into act just as the last 2 stupid stimulous bills were.
There is no free market anymore! The markets and commodities markets are all rigged to suit the elitists needs. The regulatory agencies are also a joke and have been hi-jacked.
For those that do not know....the Federal Reserve is no more federal than Federal Express or Federal ammunition. It is a central bank that prints money at will, lends it out to us and then we pay the interest back to them... a classic Ponzi scheme. This is also the system that causes inflation and will lead to hyperinflation within the next 2 years.

As for crude oil. Crude oil was chosen as the method of choice in the 60's to control the world. This is being controlled. The US has vast oil reserves. Just the Bakken reserves in the Dakotas have a proven 500+ billion barrels of known reserves that are easily recoverable, 8 times more than all of Saudi Arabia. You can find this out at the US geogical survey.
There are vast oil reserves in Alaska and the outer shelfs of the US. These will never be allowed open because the US will always have to be dependent on foreign oil.
I personally do not believe in global warming and climate change. That being said....that is not the same as believing that polluting the planet is ok. I do not believe crude oil and coal took millions and billions of years to form. It was put here by the Lord for man to use.

With all of that being said, the US is well on its way to being a third world country. Supposedly in the just passed stimulous bill, the words are written indicating that the government will restrict health care to those over 55. The housing fiasco was intentionally caused to line the pockets of the central bankers. The US is done....we don't make anything here anymore (except maple syrup) our manufacturing base is virtually gone and a service economy does not add anything to the bottom line. Its all debt!!
We are being screwed guys........watch out!

[Revi]

I agree with you on the Federal Reserve, but not on the Bakken or the huge reserves of oil. We have less than 10% of our original endowment of oil, and the coal that's left is mostly bituminous and lignite. We have burned through all the good stuff, and are left with the stuff that's hard to get. Anthracite is that hard coal from Pennsylvania, and it's mostly gone.

The larders are bare. I think that this economic meltdown was caused by the peak of oil production, among other things. They are going to print up a bunch more money to try to keep the system going, but it's going to result in hyperinflation, like you say Markcasper.

We're in a pickle, that's for sure.