maple production increases

[gmcooper]

With all the talk about everyone jumping up production levels in the next couple years what will happen to bulk prices?

This came into my thoughts after visiting a farm with cranberry bogs last weekend. Back in the early 90's (I think ) there was a shortage of cranberries. Prices were way up. There was a huge effort in Maine and several other states to jump in and make it big with cranberries. About the time these new bogs began producing the price of berries dropped drastically. Instead of generating $50,000 per acre income it was really closer to $2000 per acre if you could sell them.
What the packers called a huge shortage was covered by a very small % increase in production. But the extra production lowered the cost of berries significantly. Thus the packers made out very well and the new producers as well as some of the existing ones got screwed. Some how some of the coop members made out very well as they made money from the final product profits to offset losses on the raw berries.

Just my thoughts based on a somewhat similar situation????
Mark

[Valley View Sugarhouse]

mark, all of the US could double, and it would not compare to the difference of Canada having a good or bad yesr..

[MaplePancakeMan]

Its likely that you'll see the prices drop. Remember everything goes in cycles.

The only silver lining in this is that with maple syrup its extremely hard to judge how much a person will make per tap and how long the season extends in any one area. Suppose its a bad year, all around... that means prices will still be high... if the north has a great year and south doesn't, then prices will drop a lot because thats where most of the syrup is made. If everyone has an average year... prices will still drop but not by as much.


Its tough because everyone wants to make money and at the current bulk prices its easy to say tap everything and everything and run it till its dry but that doesn't mean the prices will be that way if everyone does that.

Another thing to think of is that the overall demand for syrup i believe exceeds the production so perhaps that will help keep the price up.

[Gary R]

Maple Syrup Digest reports, Quebec alone is increasing their tap count by 3,000,000 more this year. A good year up there and some of you guy's will be looking for a goverment bail out. LOL

[Thompson's Tree Farm]

I agree, production will increase and prices will go down. In the mean time, I intend to produce while prices are up. Price changes related to supply and demand are exponential, ie 2% surplus or shortage may mean 20% price change.
Many of us on here are planning expansions and I have heard of huge expansions in other areas. Remember any expansion of production in Quebec may be tempered by the association which can (and will) hold syrup off the market. Another factor that will influence our price is that the Canadian $ has fallen in relationship to ours. The flip side of this is that maple production items produced in Canada should be somewhat cheaper. I personally feel that the coming seasons weather will have the greatest impact on prices. I know that around here, current prices have pulled syrup out of the woodwork. Stuff that has been sitting in cellars for years has been drummed and sold bulk. I am getting retail sales from other producers customers because they don't have the syrup to sell. I think prices for the coming season will be OK. Maybe not as high as this year but certainly high enough to make a profit. Long term????, We'll go through the cycle again.
Of course all these musings don't take into account the economic situation. People don't need maple syrup.
Doug

[maplecrest]

was at maple grove last week. haven king was telling me that [as of last week] 1000 barrels of syrup had been made in canada this fall. that "could" have an effect on bulk prices. depending on crop.one producer had made 100 barrells.so 31 gallon drums x 100 at $4 equals $136400. pretty good for fall dark syrup

[gmcooper]

One of the rumors that I have heard this fall was some of the large US and Canadian producers have had "crews working since spring adding new taps and planned to keep them going till it was time to tap".

The 3 million new taps in Canada is inline with another rumor that I heard last month. Could be just rumors but it could be the truth?

I guess my original post was to get people thinking how much more syrup will it take to equal the current demand? and how much more syrup will it take to flood the market?

Mark

[Amber Gold]

If Canada produced 1000 barrels of syrup in the fall do they tap those trees again in the spring? If they do is it good for the tree to be tapped twice a year? I'd think it wouldn't be able to grow fast enough to keep that up long term. I can see why they'd tap in the fall because syrup prices are high, but I'd think they'd be better off tapping in the spring and just holding onto until fall. Do you get just as much sap per tap in the fall as you do in the spring?

[maplecrest]

my thoughts on that are as the climate is changing. the weather in canada might prove better in the fall than in the spring. as it seems to go from winter to summer there now. it was 80 degrees during there prime sugaring time frame last season. syrup was made on this farm spring and fall from the civil war till after ww2. but the weather and climate was different. takes more sap in the fall and it is dark syrup. used mainly for a sweetner as sugar was in tight supply. as to what effect it has on the trees today will be seen. they did not much care then. and the trees grew and thrived. i still tap some of them now.

[TapME]

I think there was a thread about fall tapping on here this summer.

[WESTVIRGINIAMAPLER]

IMO, what appears to be happening is that a lot of greed is starting to kick in. Even though some may not, I would bet if this fall tapping becomes a big thing in the next year or two, the fall producers will pull out the taps when spring tapping comes and retap the same tree.

If this gets big and millions of taps being added along with the ecomony, we are going to be back to lowball prices on syrup again and producers sitting on syrup 3 or 4 years waiting on a price to go back up that will take much longer than that. Some of these producers are spending huge amounts on new tubing, RO's, evaps and other big purchases and two years from now may be bankrupt.

[gmcooper]

Seems a bit early to have made a 1000 barrels in Canada already but maybe they could have.
Several years ago I was told some of the fall syrup reportedly made was actually from the spring and they were hiding it from the federation. When they couldn't move it other wise they put in some taps and claimed it was fall syrup they made. I have no idea if that was true or not but seemed possible.

[PATheron]

I think that little guys like us dont make any difference really on the price of syrup so my thought is make as much syrup as we can and capitalize on the high price. Take the money we make and put it on the equipment we buy if we can then when the prices are low well still make money becouse we wont owe a lot on the equipment. When I buy stuff in the back of my mind Im kind of figuring on making half what these prices are. Then If I make half the syrup or the prices go to half still ok. Just be an opportunist but not an overextended one. I thought about fall tapping once with the micro spiles. They heal up so fast I dont think it would even be bad for the tree becouse there is vertually no wound. Only thing is I cant imagine going through all that twice a year. Its a ton of fun in the spring but even as crazy as I am Im not sure I could deal with all the work twice. Maybe If a guy didnt have to go to work. Theron

[OGDENS SUGAR BUSH]

WESTVIRGINIAMAPLER

if we fall on hard times it isnt bankrupt anymore its called a BAILOUT

RICH

[Clan Delaney]

I think there was a thread about fall tapping on here this summer.

There was one just last month. Check it out here (http://www.mapletrader.com/community/showthread.php?t=4862&highlight=fall+tapping).

[Amber Gold]

I remember reading that one now. I'd think you'd be better off doing all tapping in the spring when you'll produce the most syrup and let the trees rest in the fall. If looking to maximize profit just hold on to it until the fall and sell it then.

[TapME]

Clan, How do you do that? Just remember that I am a person that is not good at this computer stuff.

[Clan Delaney]

Clan, How do you do that? Just remember that I am a person that is not good at this computer stuff.

Do you mean how did I find that old thread, or how did I make a link to it?

To find the thread (discussion, whatever) I clicked on the word "Search" in the blue bar at the top of the screen and typed "fall tapping" in the box labeled "Key Word(s)". Then I just browsed through the results till I found a likely candidate.

To make a link, first, copy the contents of the address bar of your web browser (right now it probably says something like http://mapletrader.com/community/showthread.php?p=54993) when it's on the page you want to link to. Then, when you are typing your message, highlight the word or words you want to make a link out of and then click on the icon of the blue/green globe with a link of chain under it (link... get it? :) ). It will be right under the selection box that says "Colors". Then, just paste that stuff you copied earlier into the box that pops up and click "OK".

I've been doing this for far too long.

[TapME]

Wish I had grown up with this stuff instead of cutting wood.

[Valley View Sugarhouse]

Wish I had grown up with this stuff instead of cutting wood.

creating links don't boil syrup, or keep us warm remember..

[Clan Delaney]

Wish I had grown up with this stuff instead of cutting wood.

Chopping wood builds character. Staying web savvy only builds geek.

[OGDENS SUGAR BUSH]

What Will You Computer Guru's Think Of Next.

Rich

[WESTVIRGINIAMAPLER]

Bailout, bankrupt, whatever, I am afraid with these high syrup prices we are only beginning to see the greed that will happen in the future.