web site

[Fred Henderson]

Anyone know of a good web site for checking on long range weather?

[Valley View Sugarhouse]

as far as I can tell the 10 day on acuweather and or weather.com is the best you can do..

[gmcooper]

I usually use www.intellicast.com or www.weather.gov

When in doubt I check both then wait. From what our neighbor tells us ( a retired meteorologist for the National Weather Service) some areas are much easier to forecast for than others and micro climates are much more influential then they get credit for. That's probably the standard excuse for miss a forecast completely!
Mark

[danno]

Looks like it's go-time beginning next weekend, assuming the forecast is correct;)

From NOAA Buffalo - which covers the western 'dacks as well.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHILE COLD CONDITIONS WILL LEAD INTO THE START OF THIS PERIOD...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE WHERE THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN PORTION OF CANADA WILL LIFT
OUT AND GIVE WAY TO A MODIFIED PACIFIC ZONAL FLOW. AS IS TYPICALLY
THE CASE DURING ZONAL FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
ONCE THE NEW PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ZONAL FLOWS FEATURE
PACIFIC BASED AIRMASSES...WHICH ARE TEMPERATE BY NATURE.

THE FORECAST ZONAL FLOW IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...WITH THE CPC NAO ENSEMBLE ALSO SUPPORTING A FASTER FLOW
VIA A HIGH CONFIDENCE (LOW VARIANCE) FORECAST OF A POSITIVE PATTERN
ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE EXCCEPTION IN THIS LINE OF THINKING
IS THE 12Z ECMWF WHICH REAMPLIFIES THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF CANADA. GIVEN THE CONFIDENCE EXHIBITED BY THE GEFS AND
NAO ENSEMBLES...AND THE SUPPORT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY THE CPC 6
TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY TEMP FORECASTS...WILL VIEW THE ECMWF AS THE
OUTLIER.

THAT BEING SAID...WE EXPECT COLD/BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO START THIS
PERIOD THEN THE MERCURY SHOULD MODIFY TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE
WEEKEND. SOME DETAILS...

A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE FOUND OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND TO START THIS PERIOD ON THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS OF -16 TO
-20C OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SFC TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS
A RESULT WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...
WHICH WILL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DATE.
MEANWHILE...EXPANSIVE SURFACE BASED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CROSSING
THE REGION. MOST AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A P/MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH
FLURRIES WHILE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND SOUTHEAST OF
LK ONTARIO.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF LK ONTARIO WILL LIFT NORTH
TO THE TUG HILL REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATING TO FLURRIES LATER ON FRIDAY AS WARM ADVECTION WILL COME
INTO PLAY. THE DOMINANT TROUGH THAT HAD BEEN OVER EASTERN CANADA
WILL BE LIFTING OUT ON FRIDAY WITH A PACIFIC FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED. THIS...ALONG WITH THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...
SHOULD PRODUCE PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR THE BULK OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. TEMPS FRIDAY SHOULD BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES F WARMER THAN THE
DAY BEFORE...THANKS TO THE DEVELOPING PACIFIC FLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES MORE ON SATURDAY AS THE
PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE BULK OF THE NATION.
H85 TEMPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MODIFY TO ARND 0C BY MIDDAY
SATURDAY AS A RESULT. WEATHERWISE...THE DEPARTING HIGH SHOULD HAVE
JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO PROVIDE ONE MORE DRY DAY FOR THE REGION.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAK SYSTEMS MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FLAT FLOW AND LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE THE EVENT FROM AMOUNTING TO
MUCH.

[syrupmaker]

Still waiting for the snow to melt around the bases of the trees to really kick thigs into gear.Put out a test bucket today but nothing dripping except the rain.

[twigbender]

Having served as an Air Force meteorologist back in the early 70s, I can tell you that a lot of general forecasts are good for about 48 hours, or less. The temp forecasts should have stronger verification, say out to about 5 days. But . . . . as one person noted, microclimates will play havoc with a general forecast. One thing you might consider is to talk with the Nat'l Weather Service folks and see if they'd do a "spot forecast" for you for a very specific location. That way they can take into account the valleys, influences of water bodies, seasonaly patterns, etc. They've been doing them for folks in the wildland fire business for years, and with the importance of the syrup industry to the NE, I'd think they'd be willing to give you a little preferential treatment.