Sudden stratospheric warming

[Swingpure]

The title makes it sound like a good thing, but the meteorologists are watching the polar vortex and are concerned about a sudden stratospheric warming. A strong polar vortex is a good thing, as it stays in place over the far north, a weak one allows cold air to slip down into Canada and the United States. A sudden stratospheric warming weakens the polar vortex and could lead to colder than normal temperatures at the end of February and into March. Not an absolute and it is not expected to be super dramatic colder weather, but as we consider when to tap in the northern latitudes, it might be something to throw into the equation.

Hint unless you are a weather geek, skip to the bottom of the link. I started reading it all and I understood it, and found it interesting,but eventually it started coming across as blah, blah, blah

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/sudden-stratospheric-warming-polar-vortex-collapse-effect-forecast-february-march-united-states-europe-fa/

[DMF]

All I do is look at my weather app, hope they are 10% accurate and wait and see. People ask me all the time, "how will your season be this year?". It's farming. Doesn't matter if your version of farming is planting crops, making hay or tapping trees. Mother Nature determines how well your season will be!

It was an interesting article FWIW.... thanks for sharing!

[Swingpure]

All I do is look at my weather app, hope they are 10% accurate and wait and see. People ask me all the time, "how will your season be this year?". It's farming. Doesn't matter if your version of farming is planting crops, making hay or tapping trees. Mother Nature determines how well your season will be!

It was an interesting article FWIW.... thanks for sharing!

When I start talking about weather, my Buddy just says he looks out his window.

[Swingpure]

I guess the forecast came true. The west will get the worst of it, but at least in Northern Ontario, we will get a cold spring because of it.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/forecasts/wild-ride-to-the-winter-finish-line-in-canada-find-out-your-fate

[Swingpure]

The Canadian Spring outlook will come out March 1st, but the US Weather Channel Spring outlook is out and it looks like a colder than normal March and even April affecting Wisconsin and Michigan the most where sap flows. It goes without saying that it will also be true in Ontario and Quebec. I am not sure how it will affect the Maritimes.

For some this will be good news extending their season and for others a delay and maybe a big delay to the start of their season.

https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/2023-02-15-spring-outlook-2023

[littleTapper]

Will be interesting to see how this pans out. I'm near Milwaukee, so near the line of normal; trending a bit cool. Already been going strong and the forecast shows a cooldown coming. If this puts us a bit cooler than normal through March/April it could be a really long season!!

[Swingpure]

The sudden stratospheric warming event I posted about I early February is still a thing.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/could-a-sudden-north-pole-warmup-prolong-canadas-winter-weather

Although that is bad news for us in Northern Ontario, it could make for a prolonged sap season for sugar makers south of us.

[Swingpure]

Here is the more technical link to what will happen in March and it gets easier reading as you get further into the article where it talks about actual forecasts.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-blocking-system-polar-vortex-collapse-cold-weather-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[SkunkWorks]

A unique volcanic eruption seems to be a major source of the anomaly:

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming