World Record Production -- World Record Demand??

[Andy VT]

Vermont, Canada, and other places have reported all-time maple syrup production records for 2022.
This is awesome!
I would have to assume this means there is more maple syrup inventory right now in the world than there has ever been at one time.
This means we also need a world-record demand.
Do you think we have that?
(I think we do actually... when I heard maple syrup being mentioned by Ben and Erin Napier on their show in the deeeep-south-y'all, I knew the word was getting out)
Andy

[220 maple]

There should be plenty of syrup available! I’ve not raised my prices, but syrup is not selling like last year! Apparently it has something to do with inflation. It’s slightly my fault I didn’t send back my stimulus money like my Amish friends did! I didn’t get any PPP money just because it was handed out by the thousands, and I can’t afford a electric truck or car at this point too help drive down the price of gasoline!
Mark 220 Maple

[SeanD]

There should be plenty of syrup available! I’ve not raised my prices, but syrup is not selling like last year! Apparently it has something to do with inflation. It’s slightly my fault I didn’t send back my stimulus money like my Amish friends did! I didn’t get any PPP money just because it was handed out by the thousands, and I can’t afford a electric truck or car at this point too help drive down the price of gasoline!
Mark 220 Maple

I didn't think I could get whiplash at my laptop. What just happened there?

Andy, demand has generally exceeded supply with maple in recent years. The markets keep expanding. With the off year last year for the northerners and Canada this should restore their reserve, too.

[DrTimPerkins]

This means we also need a world-record demand.
Do you think we have that?

Demand (based upon sales) was growing at about the same rate as production (5-8%) pre-Covid. During Covid demand surged as people were home more and making more large breakfasts with family and cooking more with "comfort" foods. Demand was high enough to draw down the Quebec Federation strategic reserve considerably faster than projected. That combined with a short crop in 2021 meant that 2022 production was critical to supplying the world-wide market demand for maple.

Had the 2022 crop been poor, in the short-term syrup prices would have spiked, however that would have led to a large reduction in demand, and set the industry back tremendously. Having a stable supply and stable price is very important in the national and international marketplace. That is what has led to the huge growth in the industry over the past 15-20 yrs.

[Andy VT]

That's really cool. I have long been fascinated by the laws of supply and demand, but it took a pandemic for me to start thinking about how limited or sporadic supply can erode demand, especially over the longer term, and how on the flip side, "if you build it they will come". I have seen it pre-pandemic too, such as a restaurant reducing service to match demand, and a resulting drop in demand, and the cycle continues until they go out of business. How cool it is that during this time of supply chain issues, maple has been "old reliable"... partly by luck and a lot by hard work.

I forgot to mention one other anecdotal sign that the word is getting out... a Great British Bake-Off contestant cited maple syrup as an ingredient recently. In this case as well as in the "Home Town" show case, I don't know with absolute certainty that they meant actual maple products... you know how that goes... but I suspect they did.

220 Maple: You took that to politics pretty quickly. I wonder if too much political content in your personal interactions and potentially on your vehicle bumpers, lawn, and social media could be a factor affecting business? Increasingly I'm seeing people start conversations with "did you hear the latest dumb thing such and such political party just did?" even if they barely know me or just met me. This will tend to make people steer clear, often even if they're on your political "side". No idea if that is happening to you but couldn't help think of it as something to check.

[220 maple]

Andy,
Sorry to disappoint you, don’t have any bumper stickers or signs in the yard, don’t have flags flying, I’m just saying syrup is not selling like last year, I have one wholesale location that purchased 10000 dollars worth in 2021, at the pace syrup is selling now, won’t get near that number, my point is inflation, however it happened
Mark 220 Maple

[Andy VT]

Andy,
Sorry to disappoint you, don’t have any bumper stickers or signs in the yard, don’t have flags flying, I’m just saying syrup is not selling like last year, I have one wholesale location that purchased 10000 dollars worth in 2021, at the pace syrup is selling now, won’t get near that number, my point is inflation, however it happened
Mark 220 Maple

Sorry, I shouldn't have gone there! Fair enough. Something still not adding up though... inflation is everywhere, yet others are reporting strong maple syrup sales. If true, there has to be another factor... something outside your control I'm now convinced, but something regional perhaps. West Virginia is listed as the U.S.'s fifth-poorest state (had to look that up). That would certainly result in people, on average, having to make tougher purchasing decisions, and it is true that if one is faced with either gas in the car or maple syrup on the table, you'd probably have to go with the gas (though I personally would have to think about it, ha!). So, maybe the difference could be that. Not sure of course.

[DrTimPerkins]

... either gas in the car or maple syrup on the table,...

And as we saw in the news recently https://www.carscoops.com/2022/05/talk-about-a-sticky-situation-man-arrested-for-pouring-maple-syrup-in-gas-tank-following-argument/ don't confuse the two.

Andy...Since you're new here....discussions that are political or lean that way are frowned upon in this forum. We get enough of that elsewhere.

Mark...thanks for not taking the bait.

[220 maple]

Dr. Tim,
As you can remember from the past I’ve been fairly consistent about my beliefs that your research center is finding more productive ways to get sap and therefore more syrup, but I always said get the business/marketing department involved at U of Vt. So we don’t have too much syrup setting in reserve.
That being said I am encouraged by the development of selling sap as a drink plus the new product on the block from CDL, Nectar! Both will help keep the syrup price stabilized. In my opinion
Mark 220 Maple

[maple flats]

I believe it would take more than one record year to flood the market with syrup. Reserves were very low just before the season, and a record year might only get reserves to a comfortable level IMHO.
Personally I always liked my reserve inventory to be at a modest level just after Christmas each year, that was not my case 5 months ago, I had a very low stock. It seems Bruce Bascom said shortly before the season that his stock was too low, a record production should fix that.
I've not seen a loss in sales, and I raised my prices 2x since Christmas, just to keep pace sort of with inflation.

[DrTimPerkins]

Dr. Tim,
As you can remember from the past I’ve been fairly consistent about my beliefs that your research center is finding more productive ways to get sap and therefore more syrup, but I always said get the business/marketing department involved at U of Vt. So we don’t have too much syrup setting in reserve.

There is definitely not too much syrup in reserve. Maple industry sales have been increasing about 5-8% annually for the past 15 yrs (since the last shortage of syrup around 2008) and were fairly well matched with increases in production in the U.S. and Canada. The Quebec Federation reserve did a lot to ensure that supply and prices remained stable. Unfortunately, the Canadian dollar dropped a good bit over that time period, which weakened the amount that packers paid for bulk syrup in the U.S. That factor alone had the biggest impact on the lower price of bulk U.S. syrup.

With rising demand and less than optimal production for a few years, by the spring of 2022 the Quebec Federation reserve was getting quite low. The syrup remaining was most likely not of the highest quality (to put it nicely). A short production year in 2022 would have: 1) increased bulk, retail and ingredient prices (good perhaps for producers in the short-term, but bad for consumers in the short-term), 2) depleted the reserve (putting more pressure to raise prices even further) and 3) resulted in inferior syrup reaching the marketplace (bottom of the barrel stuff). All of that would have led to a drop off in future demand and dropping bulk and retail prices. We've seen that happen in the past.

There are a number of maple business projects ongoing at UVM and the State of Vermont Agency of Agriculture (and have been for several years). Links are below.

https://www.uvm.edu/extension/agriculture/maple/bizmodules/
https://www.uvm.edu/extension/agriculture/maple/bizmodules/events
https://blog.uvm.edu/farmvia/?cat=12638
https://vermontmaplebulletin.wordpress.com/
https://agriculture.vermont.gov/maple-data-dashboard

The majority of maple syrup produced in Vermont is for the bulk market, hence the emphasis of PMRC on production (and tree health). Extension and the VT Agency of Agriculture are the marketing sides of the equation. We don't control what they do, but do work with them as our missions intersect.