Long range winter forecast and what does that mean for the sap run?

[Swingpure]

I was reading the long range weather forecast for Ontario, which should be similar to the forecast for many of the States in the North East and in Quebec.

It is calling for “extended periods of mild weather”

“ A come-and-go winter is expected with periods of mild weather and periods of high impact winter weather. An active storm track should bring an abundance of snow to much of the region at times, but many systems will also bring a messy mix of snow, ice and rain, especially across southern areas. The winter will also include extended periods of mild weather, including the potential for a prolonged thaw, especially across southern parts of the province.”

Although I would not put my life on the line based on a long range forecast, let’s assume that this winter from mid January onward has some “extended periods of mild weather, including the potential for a prolonged thaw”, will this mean several different periods of sap flow?

Where I live, we will be on the border line of the jet stream. If it generally runs above us, we will have some of these mild periods, if it runs below us, we will have a ton of snow.

[VTnewguy]

It probably will mean some of the bigger operations will catch the early, early runs. The sap flow in January is usually low sugar content and the days are so short it might not be much of a run of sap. Being a small producer we try to stay close to the historical time to tap in our area. (The first week in March)

[CTguy923]

ive only been making syrup for a few years but, have been involved in the snow business for 40 and one thing i can tell you is.....dont listen to any long range forcasts, they cant predict more then 3 or 4 days out with 75% certainity

[bill m]

CTguy923 nailed it. Do not waste your time looking at long range forecasts. You will just cause yourself a lot of stress for nothing. They are not accurate.

[Swingpure]

I actually have a little more faith in the seasonal forecasts than relatively short term ones. It amazes me that for here, how often then are wrong even 24 hours out.

[Sugar Bear]

Although it is unseasonably warm today, this year in the Mid-Hudson Valley it has been colder than normal for the past 35 days. It was warmer than usual up until the end of October with hardly even a "soft" night frost to be found.

But since then, hard frosts have been in play almost 5 out of every 7 nights. With a lot of partly sunny days in the mid 40's.

I have spotted some ice formation on pieces of water that it has no business being at in November in the mid hudson valley. I go by this stuff ( my own local observations ) more than anything else. And starting Feb 1 I combine these observations with the 10 day forecast as a decision maker with when I will tap.

"With regards to making a decision on when to tap ... the past two months of weather should be combined with the next 10 day forcast. I.E this has been what is "trending" ... this is what is forcast for the next 10 days.

Your past weather trends talk to you more about the coming weather trends more then anything else. Make not a single mistake about that.

Don't ever bother paying any attention to anything after 10 days out. NEVER!

[DrTimPerkins]

https://mapleresearch.org/pub/mn1116weather-2/

[Swingpure]

In my former working life, I worked for a railroad that had lines in both Canada and the United States. Among the many hats I wore, I was in charge of the weather forecasting companies. We based business decisions on the weather forecast and more importantly warnings, both forecasted and real time. We used WeatherData a US based Company as our contractor. (They were later absorbed by Accu-Weather) They were actually very good at forecasting the weather.

Now in my retired life, using the same weather forecasting services as the public, I am constantly disappointed in the forecast and barely trust the next day forecasts.

Having said that, predicting a daily forecast I think is harder I think than a seasonal forecast. There are fewer variables. They nailed the seasonal weather forecast this fall here.

But I am as skeptical as anyone else about forecasts, my first post was assuming the seasonal forecast was correct and we had numerous mild spells in the spring, what would that mean for the sap run?

Dr Perkins, for Vermont, do have the number of gallons of syrup produced per year per tap for the last 10-20 years? I am just trying to identify good years and bad years and compare that to La Niña years.

[DrTimPerkins]

Dr Perkins, for Vermont, do have the number of gallons of syrup produced per year per tap for the last 10-20 years? I am just trying to identify good years and bad years and compare that to La Niña years.

Yes, USDA https://www.nass.usda.gov/ produces that information in their annual reports back about 15 yrs I think. We have it for about 50 yrs, but it isn't publicly available at this point. That is probably too simplistic an analysis though, since both weather affects both sap sugar content and flow differentially to a substantial degree.

The issue about sap flows that makes any type of forecast difficult is that it is almost a threshold response -- either freezing or thawed, so a difference of only a few degrees makes all the difference. The forecast is just not sensitive enough on many days to detect those types of changes. Plus there is often a good amount of variation from the ground to the crown of trees, and from the sugarhouse to the far reaches of the sugarbush. We see changes in our sugarbush on our Smartrek system that are just astounding at times. At times it is due just to a small degree in aspect, with the areas facing just 10-20 degrees further south starting earlier each day and earlier in the season than those facing just slightly more northerly. Elevation and drainage also plays a pretty big role in temperature variation as well. Our bush spans over about 500 ft in elevation from top to bottom. Big differences in flow timing due to that.

What I've seen more often as "season-ending" or "season-limiting" weather is either: 1) season high temperature excursions of above 60 deg F lasting for 3+ days or 2) temperatures that remain slightly too cold (no or only a few good thaw periods) far into the "typical" date of the season, then turning to slightly too warm for the remainder of the season without any solid freezes.

Bottom line...we spend an awful lot of time watching the forecast, which sometimes can help to key us in when the sap might flow, but then the real work comes when the trees say it is time.

[Sugar Bear]

I have noticed over my short six years of tapping ( in my adult life ) and being so intimate with the 10 day, that it seems that the 10 day forecast for temperatures and wind speed deviate less from the predictions then do the 10 day predictions for sunshine, cloud cover and precip.

But I guess that is because being off only a degree or two can dictate whether sunshine forms or clouds and precip form. Which are a much bigger differential, at least from an appearance point of view then a degree or two or three in Temp are.

It seems that Sunshine and or precip/clouds forming in the skies is probably even more finicky ( less scientifically definable ) then sap flow forming in the trees is.

With that said I am impressed with the forecasting ability they do have and can't blame them for not being so good just a few days out.

The "10 day forcast" speaks volumes from its own terminology. As in .... "We are clueless beyond that" ... As in we could have 7 years of feast and 7 years of famine ... As in this is nothing new at all.

One good thing about the bible is, is that it has taught me that weather trends have been around at least since the bible was written. However long that is. Other then that, it pretty much leaves me confused and provides no additional information on my maple sugaring conundrums!

[Swingpure]

I have noticed over my short six years of tapping ( in my adult life ) and being so intimate with the 10 day, that it seems that the 10 day forecast for temperatures and wind speed deviate less from the predictions then do the 10 day predictions for sunshine, cloud cover and precip.

But I guess that is because being off only a degree or two can dictate whether sunshine forms or clouds and precip form. Which are a much bigger differential, at least from an appearance point of view then a degree or two or three in Temp are.

It seems that Sunshine and or precip/clouds forming in the skies is probably even more finicky ( less scientifically definable ) then sap flow forming in the trees is.

With that said I am impressed with the forecasting ability they do have and can't blame them for not being so good just a few days out.

The "10 day forcast" speaks volumes from its own terminology. As in .... "We are clueless beyond that" ... As in we could have 7 years of feast and 7 years of famine ... As in this is nothing new at all.

One good thing about the bible is, is that it has taught me that weather trends have been around at least since the bible was written. However long that is. Other then that, it pretty much leaves me confused and provides no additional information on my maple sugaring conundrums!

I agree that most of the erroneous forecasts are generally off in precipitation amounts or type. Our last three snow events, the forecast they gave the night before, underestimated the amount of snow by 2 or 3 times. Last night they said we would get 5-10 cms (2-4 inches) but we are already over 31 cms (over a foot) and counting.

Temperature is more important for sap flow, which they are better at.

So far the seasonal forecast is being fulfilled. Periods of lots of snow, followed by mild stretches. Not great for my ice fishing, which looks like it will be delayed by maybe a month this year.

[Hop Kiln Road]

I go by the number of days the saps run (and I pump the tanks.) 15 year high 24, low 13, average 17.4, and median 16. Probably impossible to predict via long range or short range forecasts. My bushes had very high water tables this fall, 13" of rain in July alone, so I'm wondering if there won't be a greater frost penetration than normal.

[berkshires]

For me, the one and only thing a long-range forecast would be useful for would be knowing when to tap. In my bush I get about six decent weeks of potential runs, so timing is vital. I have tracked the *actual* weather, and what that says each year for when the optimal day to tap would have been.

In the nine years from 2012 to 2021, the best time to tap has varied quite a bit, with the earliest being Feb 6 (2012) and the latest being March 9 (2015 and 2019). Average is March 23. So you can see that if I'm off by a few weeks, I can really miss out.

That said, I'm human, and I do look at the long-range forecast, but I cannot remember a single year when they've been accurate enough to have provided a reasonable guess on when I should tap. There was one year when I was convinced I should tap way earlier than usual. That was my worst year ever. The ten-day forecast, on the other hand, is very valuable. It's not perfect, but it's good enough to be usable for some planning purposes.

There is one rule I've discovered in looking at those past years of actual weather: If I never tap before 2/14 (a bit more than a week before the average best date), I will at worst come pretty darn close to the best potential for my sugarbush, even if the absolute optimal date is a week or more before that. That's because the later runs are likely to come very close to balancing out the earlier ones I missed. If I do not follow this rule, and tap much earlier, I risk paying a huge penalty if I get it wrong, as the heavier runs often come later in the season, and if my taps are mostly dried up, I'm SOL.

So for me, using the rule of 2/14 (Valentines Day) as a minimum date, and then using the ten-day forecast to tap as late as early March, is the way to go.

Other sugar bushes may be very different than mine. And using a lot of tubing runs with good sanitation may be a great deal more forgiving about best tapping date than me being on all buckets. You just have to learn over time how best to tap your sugarbush.

GO

[johnallin]

I go by the number of days the saps run (and I pump the tanks.) 15 year high 24, low 13, average 17.4, and median 16. Probably impossible to predict via long range or short range forecasts. My bushes had very high water tables this fall, 13" of rain in July alone, so I'm wondering if there won't be a greater frost penetration than normal. Ah Bruce! Let down...normally your posts are a much more interesting read ...this one lacks the usual "story telling" style I've looked forward to the past 12 years.. As the guy said in the movie " OK - Who Are You and what have you done to Mr. Treat?" Looking forward to another season of Maple...and it's good to be reading Trader again. John

[Sugar Bear]

There is one rule I've discovered in looking at those past years of actual weather: If I never tap before 2/14 (a bit more than a week before the average best date), I will at worst come pretty darn close to the best potential for my sugarbush, even if the absolute optimal date is a week or more before that. That's because the later runs are likely to come very close to balancing out the earlier ones I missed. If I do not follow this rule, and tap much earlier, I risk paying a huge penalty if I get it wrong, as the heavier runs often come later in the season, and if my taps are mostly dried up, I'm SOL.

GO


For sure.

But I set two dates for my time to tap determination.

1) A Date to start considering when to tap ( For my region it is January 1st/5th

If sap has been flowing well for the previous 30 days I might tap here. Or consider tapping at the next favorable temp because of the previous 30 days.

2) A Date to tap no matter what, at the next set of favorable temp conditions. (For my region that is February 14th/19th) If it is frozen from the 14th to 27th I tap on the 28th.

I have a 15 day sliding window.

But everybody has to find that slot for their Lattitude Longitude location.

Conditions never really slide off more then 15 days on any seasonal aspect of nature.

For example this year the leaves came off late in the Mid Hudson Valley and I think we struggled to find even a soft frost until early November. Both aspects were the latest I think I have ever seen mid valley. But that said they are both only 15 days off the natural average AT MOST! But when things like this happen it fortifies a growing portion of society that thinks its going to be summer time in the winter time soon.

Also with this said I am surprised I saw not a peep about anybody taping from early November to now on this website this year. If you got the extra set of trees it may have worked and been ethical.
If they did I am curious to know how they did.







[/B]

[Swingpure]

Your sap season starts so much earlier then ours, not surprisingly. It is like you get Christmas Day three to four weeks early,

It amazes me how much a few miles can make. People in Toronto, 150 miles away are golfing, while I am still ice fishing.

I think climate change will affect the seasons sooner than people think and traditional start days for the start of the flow of sap will change. We have about 15” (38 cms) of snow on the ground right now, but that all could be gone in a week’s time. Now that’s weather and not climate change, but I think things like that will happen more often.

Here, speaking to locals, normally the first week of March is when the sap begins to flow. It has flowed at the end of February. I have a few good local contacts who will help me on when I should tap, but I will be at the leading edge of the tap.

Right now the plan is to have 80:taps, but if there is not a lot of snow on the ground I may have 90+ as I will add more buckets for nearby trees.

[berkshires]

For sure.

But I set two dates for my time to tap determination.

1) A Date to start considering when to tap ( For my region it is January 1st/5th

If sap has been flowing well for the previous 30 days I might tap here. Or consider tapping at the next favorable temp because of the previous 30 days.

2) A Date to tap no matter what, at the next set of favorable temp conditions. (For my region that is February 14th/19th) If it is frozen from the 14th to 27th I tap on the 28th.



Yes, definitely. 2019 was a year when I was very worried. All through the end of Feb and the beginning of March everything was frozen solid. March 7th it hit negative one overnight (Fahrenheit)! But when things finally defrosted, I wound up having a short but better-than-average season. So you never know.

GO

[berkshires]

I looked again at my notes, and discovered that for every rule there is an exception! LOL. I wasn't sugaring back in 2012, but if I had been, I would definitely have lost out substantially if I'd have waited until 2/14 to tap. It seems that that season was just plain hot, the optimal date to tap for me would have been 2/6, and most likely the trees would have totally shut down by the third week in March, with many days in the 70s, and one reaching the 80s!

That must have been a hell of a season - I wonder what the long-range forecasts told people that year? Did anyone tap really early based on those forecasts that year?

GO

[berkshires]

That must have been a hell of a season - I wonder what the long-range forecasts told people that year? Did anyone tap really early based on those forecasts that year?

GO

Well I just spent some time searching this site, and as usual I found gold (god this site is great!). From 2/13/2012 in Minnesota:

The NWS's climate prediction center is showing a likelihood of temps in MN being more or less "average" for Feb-April (no prolonged heat snaps or cold spells forecast), though I don't really know how much stock to put in that

At the time, everyone on the forum was thinking about tapping early because of the unseasonably warm winter. But most folks held out. It seems the long-term forecast at the time did *not* help them know what was coming.

GO

[JoeJ]

Once we get close to taping time, unfortunately the 10 day forecast is what we have to work with. Last spring, I made a 30 day chart with each days 10 day forecast. There was some pretty wild 10 degree swings between day 1 of the 10 day and day 10. Now that makes it difficult when you are trying to decide 6 days in advance when to start taping. From my list below, I ended taping within 5 days of sap flow 10 times. I was early on the sap flow 6-10 days 5 times and was early real bad 3 times, 16 days, 17 days and 24 days. From 2004 to 2013 I was taping from 450 to 1,000 which took me 2 days. After that, I was taping 3,200 which takes 6 days and makes determining when to start taping harder.

Year......end taping date......Sap flow date...missed by..........year.....end taping date........sap flow date.....missed by
2004.....3-1.......................3-2.................0 days...............2014...2-20.......................2-23.................2 days
2005.....2-28.....................3-16...............16 days..............2015...2-21.......................3-11.................17 days
2006.....3-4.......................3-11...............7 days...............2016...2-15.......................2-21..................5 days
2007.....3-2.......................3-11...............9 days...............2017...1-20.......................1-22..................1 days
2008.....3-3.......................3-4.................0 days...............2018...2-12.......................2-17..................4 days
2009.....2-27.....................2-28...............0 days...............2019...2-14.......................3-11..................24 days
2010.....2-26.....................2-27...............0 days...............2020...2-19.......................2-24..................4 days
2011.....2-23.....................3-5.................9 days...............2021...2-26.......................3-1....................6 days
2012.....2-22.....................2-24...............1 day
2013.....2-16.....................2-26...............9 days

Joe

[DrTimPerkins]

Well I just spent some time searching this site, and as usual I found gold (god this site is great!). From 2/13/2012 in Minnesota

The 2012 season is not a good baseline for much of the maple production region due to temperatures in the mid-80s in the middle of March. It is a huge outlier in the records. Most would be quite happy to forget about that season altogether.

[berkshires]

The 2012 season is not a good baseline for much of the maple production region due to temperatures in the mid-80s in the middle of March. It is a huge outlier in the records. Most would be quite happy to forget about that season altogether.
Oh I agree. What I was looking for was whether the generally useless long term forecast might have proven useful on an extreme outlier of a year. Survey says... nope.

GO

[Sugar Bear]

Oh I agree. What I was looking for was whether the generally useless long term forecast might have proven useful on an extreme outlier of a year. Survey says... nope.

GO


Your point sunk into my fat head in about 1 billionth of a second.

So it is a well made point.


Are there any studies showing the effects of tap hole production of taps that are in place in frozen conditions waiting for initial sap flow over an extended period of 5 or more days as compared to taps taped on the beginning of sap flow?

Just wondering about the deterioration rate of a tap hole sitting idle in frozen conditions.

That would be very interesting info.

[TapTapTap]

Starting in late February, I like to pick a sting of moderate temperature conditions (20s) to tap. I figure that if it's been real cold then it will take the trees a few days to thaw anyway. So I can't really be late. I'm up around 1,500 taps these days but I don't spend more than about 4 hours in the woods at a time - and a lot less if it's cold.

Ken

[Sugar Bear]

Starting in late February, I like to pick a sting of moderate temperature conditions (20s) to tap. I figure that if it's been real cold then it will take the trees a few days to thaw anyway. So I can't really be late. I'm up around 1,500 taps these days but I don't spend more than about 4 hours in the woods at a time - and a lot less if it's cold.

Ken

I am wondering if a advantage of taping in such weather would be a cleaner tap hole from the get go. No or fewer microbes around in the colder air that will culture the tap hole when you tap.

Probably would not make much of a difference in the end either way.

[DrTimPerkins]

I am wondering if a advantage of taping in such weather would be a cleaner tap hole from the get go. No or fewer microbes around in the colder air that will culture the tap hole when you tap.

Probably would not make much of a difference in the end either way.

Most of the microbes that end up in the taphole come from the spout and/or the tubing system. On gravity systems (buckets), microbes come in via the spout or via the air. On tubing systems, microbes enter on the spout or in backflow of sap, especially on vacuum systems.

[DrTimPerkins]

Are there any studies showing the effects of tap hole production of taps that are in place in frozen conditions waiting for initial sap flow over an extended period of 5 or more days as compared to taps taped on the beginning of sap flow?

https://mapleresearch.org/pub/m0608tappingtiming/

[TapTapTap]

Most of the microbes that end up in the taphole come from the spout and/or the tubing system. On gravity systems (buckets), microbes come in via the spout or via the air. On tubing systems, microbes enter on the spout or in backflow of sap, especially on vacuum systems.

I am somewhat challenged on spout management and cleanliness during tapping. By the time I get to the bottom of the spout bag, there seems to be a fair amount of bark debris and drill shavings with them. I don't have a simple solution except to have my wife come along and feed me spouts - and that's not a real simple solution either!

Ken

[Swingpure]

https://mapleresearch.org/pub/m0608tappingtiming/

If I understand this correctly, for most years the yields will be almost identical for early tapped trees to those tapped later on. Tapping early could pay off if the sap ran early, like here in 2020 and shuts down early, like here in 2021. You could lose out if the sap runs hard at the end.

For our area, you would not be too far off if you said sap starts running March 7. Keeping in mind what the real weather is at the time (cold snap ve warm spell), you might not go to wrong if you tapped here let’s say February 22nd.

[Sugar Bear]

Most of the microbes that end up in the taphole come from the spout and/or the tubing system. On gravity systems (buckets), microbes come in via the spout or via the air. On tubing systems, microbes enter on the spout or in backflow of sap, especially on vacuum systems.

So .... what you have found is that the introduction, to the tap hole, of sap flow terminating microbes in cold weather tapping is nominal as compared to warm weather tapping ... correct ?

[Sugar Bear]

If I understand this correctly, for most years the yields will be almost identical for early tapped trees to those tapped later on. Tapping early could pay off if the sap ran early, like here in 2020 and shuts down early, like here in 2021. You could lose out if the sap runs hard at the end.

For our area, you would not be too far off if you said sap starts running March 7. Keeping in mind what the real weather is at the time (cold snap ve warm spell), you might not go to wrong if you tapped here let’s say February 22nd.

As most is on this forum, this is very interesting data and certainly answers my question about letting taps sit idle in frozen weather.

It would be nice to see what temperatures were between runs and why did the runs stop. Some data is provided on that but it is unclear as how that played out in shut down off runs at the base of Mt Mansfield during those years.

Key questions for me would be.

1) Did all runs stop from Freeze ups. At the base of Mt Mansfield I suspect they all may have in the front half of the potable sap flow season.

2) Did all runs stop from Warm ups. In my tapping location I suspect that many might have. Possibly even in the front half of the potable sap flow season.

IMO this data could be drastically different if the scenario I am describing here is encountered. And it frequently is in the lower half of the maple sugaring range in the United States.

Simply put the Time To Tap Paradox becomes more and more complicated the farther south you go in the Maple Tree tapping range.

Let alone say down in valley in the Champlain Intervals as compared to the base of Mt Mansfield.

[DrTimPerkins]

So .... what you have found is that the introduction, to the tap hole, of sap flow terminating microbes in cold weather tapping is nominal as compared to warm weather tapping ... correct ?

Please rephrase your question so I know for certain what you are asking.

[Sugar Bear]

Please rephrase your question so I know for certain what you are asking.


Are you saying that taping on a sub freezing day will not have a benefit with regards to limiting the exposure of the tap hole to microbes, that shut the tap hole down eventually, any more then tapping on a warm day, of say 45 degrees will?

I like to tap when sap is flowing at least a bit, so that the tap hole flushes out wood chips a little better, but wonder if a sub freezing day does not avoid exposure to microbes a bit better.

If a clean bit does us justice ... my question is why wouldn't a clean day do the same, being that a cold day is likely to be a cleaner day with regards to microbial spry rates ... in the air ... on the surface of the bark? It seems these microbes can go from dormmate to spry in a few hours based on temperature.

Perhaps a 25 degree day is no cleaner then a 45 degree day in regards to how spry the microbes might be.

[Swingpure]

Once we get close to taping time, unfortunately the 10 day forecast is what we have to work with. Last spring, I made a 30 day chart with each days 10 day forecast. There was some pretty wild 10 degree swings between day 1 of the 10 day and day 10. Now that makes it difficult when you are trying to decide 6 days in advance when to start taping. From my list below, I ended taping within 5 days of sap flow 10 times. I was early on the sap flow 6-10 days 5 times and was early real bad 3 times, 16 days, 17 days and 24 days. From 2004 to 2013 I was taping from 450 to 1,000 which took me 2 days. After that, I was taping 3,200 which takes 6 days and makes determining when to start taping harder.

Year......end taping date......Sap flow date...missed by..........year.....end taping date........sap flow date.....missed by
2004.....3-1.......................3-2.................0 days...............2014...2-20.......................2-23.................2 days
2005.....2-28.....................3-16...............16 days..............2015...2-21.......................3-11.................17 days
2006.....3-4.......................3-11...............7 days...............2016...2-15.......................2-21..................5 days
2007.....3-2.......................3-11...............9 days...............2017...1-20.......................1-22..................1 days
2008.....3-3.......................3-4.................0 days...............2018...2-12.......................2-17..................4 days
2009.....2-27.....................2-28...............0 days...............2019...2-14.......................3-11..................24 days
2010.....2-26.....................2-27...............0 days...............2020...2-19.......................2-24..................4 days
2011.....2-23.....................3-5.................9 days...............2021...2-26.......................3-1....................6 days
2012.....2-22.....................2-24...............1 day
2013.....2-16.....................2-26...............9 days

Joe

Great chart, thanks for sharing it!

The years you missed by 7 to 4 days, did you notice any difference in yields?

Thanks

Gary

[Swingpure]

For me, the one and only thing a long-range forecast would be useful for would be knowing when to tap. In my bush I get about six decent weeks of potential runs, so timing is vital. I have tracked the *actual* weather, and what that says each year for when the optimal day to tap would have been.

In the nine years from 2012 to 2021, the best time to tap has varied quite a bit, with the earliest being Feb 6 (2012) and the latest being March 9 (2015 and 2019). Average is March 23. So you can see that if I'm off by a few weeks, I can really miss out.

That said, I'm human, and I do look at the long-range forecast, but I cannot remember a single year when they've been accurate enough to have provided a reasonable guess on when I should tap. There was one year when I was convinced I should tap way earlier than usual. That was my worst year ever. The ten-day forecast, on the other hand, is very valuable. It's not perfect, but it's good enough to be usable for some planning purposes.

There is one rule I've discovered in looking at those past years of actual weather: If I never tap before 2/14 (a bit more than a week before the average best date), I will at worst come pretty darn close to the best potential for my sugarbush, even if the absolute optimal date is a week or more before that. That's because the later runs are likely to come very close to balancing out the earlier ones I missed. If I do not follow this rule, and tap much earlier, I risk paying a huge penalty if I get it wrong, as the heavier runs often come later in the season, and if my taps are mostly dried up, I'm SOL.

So for me, using the rule of 2/14 (Valentines Day) as a minimum date, and then using the ten-day forecast to tap as late as early March, is the way to go.

Other sugar bushes may be very different than mine. And using a lot of tubing runs with good sanitation may be a great deal more forgiving about best tapping date than me being on all buckets. You just have to learn over time how best to tap your sugarbush.

GO

Feeding off your post, I tried to think of what would be the earliest date to start and the latest date to finish. I looked at old posts from several years. Although there are exceptions, the earliest date would be February 22nd and the latest date March 14 to tap. That is a three week period where the forecast would be used to pick the date.

For me personally I need about five days to shovel out around my evaporator, assemble my sugar shed, and do a bunch of other preparatory things. I have also never drilled a single tap hole, so I am not sure how long it will take me to tap the 67 taps on lines and 13 on buckets.

Right or wrong, I want to start tapping about 3 days ahead of when I think the sap will run.

One thing that might help catch a late run is that I may add 15 more buckets once the snow levels drop and I can easily get to the buckets.

The one question I have is let’s say the sap runs over a period of 6 weeks (42 days). On average how many of those days, does the sap actually run?

[82cabby]

The one question I have is let’s say the sap runs over a period of 6 weeks (42 days). On average how many of those days, does the sap actually run?

Unfortunately it’s not that precise. I’ve had seasons where there was a little sap every day or so for weeks, and seasons where it started late, ran like crazy and was done in 2 1/2 weeks. With 80 taps if things really cut loose you could have a couple 100 gallon days back to back. On the other hand, a 50 gallon day followed by 10 days of nothing can also happen. All you can really do is keep an eye on the long range forecast and start to develop a sense for the weather.

Personally I follow pretty much the same plan as Berkshires but about a week later. I try to time the first big run after the third weekend in February.

[Swingpure]

Unfortunately it’s not that precise. I’ve had seasons where there was a little sap every day or so for weeks, and seasons where it started late, ran like crazy and was done in 2 1/2 weeks. With 80 taps if things really cut loose you could have a couple 100 gallon days back to back. On the other hand, a 50 gallon day followed by 10 days of nothing can also happen. All you can really do is keep an eye on the long range forecast and start to develop a sense for the weather.

Personally I follow pretty much the same plan as Berkshires but about a week later. I try to time the first big run after the third weekend in February.

In the SapTapApp they have a sap flow predictor that rates days by 1 to 5 buckets. Does that correlate to the real world?

[JoeJ]

Gary, I thought that I would just add to my chart to show the length of my sap season, the number of days sap ran / boils, and the gallons of syrup per tap when finishing taping 4-9 days before sap actually flowed. I had never looked at some of this information that I had put into the chart


Year......end taping date......Sap flow date...missed by.......length of season...Boils/ days sap ran...gal syrup per tap
2004.....3-1.......................3-2.................0 days............34 days...............19 boils..................................no vacuum
2005.....2-28.....................3-16...............16 days.......... 44 days...............23 boils................. .18 gpt.....no vacuum
2006.....3-4.......................3-11...............7 days............29 days...............20 boils................. .39 gpt.....first year with vacuum
2007.....3-2.......................3-11...............9 days............29 days...............20 boils................. .45 gpt
2008.....3-3.......................3-4.................0 days............41 days...............29 boils
2009.....2-27.....................2-28...............0 days............49 days...............32 boils
2010.....2-26.....................2-27...............0 days............38 days...............38 boils
2011.....2-23.....................3-5.................9 days............37 days...............37 boils................ .48 gpt
2012.....2-22.....................2-24...............1 day..............22 days...............12 boils
2013.....2-16.....................2-26...............9 days............47 days................23 boils............... .51 gpt
2014.....2-17.....................2-23...............7 days............49 days................22 boils............... .36 gpt 2,100 new taps and plenty of problems 1 early boil on 2-23 then 12 day freeze
2015...2-21.......................3-11...............17 days..........33 days................17 boils............... .32 gpt
2016...2-15.......................2-21...............5 days............39 days................27 boils............... .47 gpt
2017...1-20.......................1-22...............1 day..............44 days................30 boils..............................4 early boils starting on 1-22 then 22 day freeze
2018...2-12.......................2-17...............4 days............46 days................27 boils............... .43 gpt
2019...2-14.......................3-11...............24 days..........33 days................30 boils............... .40 gpt
2020...2-19.......................2-24...............4 days............39 days................23 boils............... .33 gpt....serious vacuum pump problems
2021...2-26.......................3-1.................6 days............31 days............... 15 boils............... .23 gpt.... weird weather, what other excuse could I use??

In 2005, I did not have vacuum. The other 4-9 days delay between finishing taping and actual sap flow (except 2015) did not seem to seriously lower syrup my production. In 2019, with a 24 day delay, I still produced .40 gpt. Except the first 2 seasons, all the subsequent seasons, the taps were under vacuum. I am sure that if you use buckets, long delays such as I have had, production with buckets would seriously be effected.
Joe

[DrTimPerkins]

Are you saying that taping on a sub freezing day will not have a benefit with regards to limiting the exposure of the tap hole to microbes, that shut the tap hole down eventually, any more then tapping on a warm day, of say 45 degrees will?

I don't know that there has been any real research on this (tapping in warm vs cold weather in terms of microbial contamination of tapholes), however IF there were any influence, it would most likely be miniscule, so not worth worrying about. In general, anytime the temperatures are above 50 deg F, microbes will grow fast, and the higher the temperature the faster the growth/reproduction. Note that this refers to WOOD temperature, not air temperature.

We generally begin tapping about mid-January with the goal of finishing by mid-February at the latest (5,500 taps, going to 6,500 this year). Sap flows typically begin mid-March, but we often get one or more small-moderate runs earlier than that. The main factors influencing the rate of tapping are: snow depth and temperature (I won't let the crew go into the woods if the windchill is less than 10 deg F).

With good vacuum (and good vacuum management), there are not many negatives to tapping a bit early. The negative in tapping late is missing some of those early sap runs or not having all your taps in. However early tapping with buckets does come with an increased risk of "taphole drying."

[berkshires]

The negative in tapping late is missing some of those early sap runs or not having all your taps in. However early tapping with buckets does come with an increased risk of "taphole drying."

This has certainly been my experience. For example in 2020 I was swayed to tap on 2/10, which is two weeks earlier than my average best tap date. There were several small runs those first few weeks (which also means the microbes were warm enough to start growing.) Then I had a normal season until... by the third week of March, when there were some huge potential runs, many of my trees had already shut down, and some others were only a trickle. A few (I can't remember which, but likely the north-facing ones) made it to the end of the March, when I typically pull my taps. But I absolutely would have gotten more from all my taps had I traded those small early runs for the monster ones in Mid to late March.

@DrTim - All that said, I have to admit I'm pretty confused. Looking at the study you linked here: https://mapleresearch.org/pub/m0608tappingtiming/ it appears that your results were very different from mine. In those gravity tests, comparing tap output of the early and "traditional" tapping dates for the last half of March (which is weeks six through eight on the "early") taps, I see no difference for two of the three years, and for 2002 only a 20% reduction.

So the conclusion of the study appears to be that there is generally no overall loss, even on buckets, even for very early tapping. But your post above (and my experience) seems to show otherwise. Do you think the three years tested were somewhat outliers? Or is there some other help you can provide to reconcile these two concepts that seem to be in conflict?

GO

[berkshires]

I am somewhat challenged on spout management and cleanliness during tapping. By the time I get to the bottom of the spout bag, there seems to be a fair amount of bark debris and drill shavings with them. I don't have a simple solution except to have my wife come along and feed me spouts - and that's not a real simple solution either!

Ken

Me too. I wonder if these are the sorts of things that make my trees shut down faster than those in the study DrTim referenced. Maybe he and the other folks at the Proctor facility just aren't introducing the "starter culture" that some of us are putting into our tapholes.

Gabe

[TapTapTap]

Me too. I wonder if these are the sorts of things that make my trees shut down faster than those in the study DrTim referenced. Maybe he and the other folks at the Proctor facility just aren't introducing the "starter culture" that some of us are putting into our tapholes.

Gabe

Gabe,

In your situation with just 18 taps, you should be able to take extraordinary measures. Worst case, you could pre-wrap each spout individually so they don't get contaminated in the field. I've got 1,500 taps which isn't huge but is beyond a practical effort to repackage each spout.

My main problem is I take the bag of 100 spouts and set them in the front pocket of my apron for easy access. Shavings, bark, and stuff ends up falling in the bag. And I get some of that same stuff in the bag each time I reach in to fetch a new spout. By the end of the 100 I've got a good collection of debris.

Ken

[DrTimPerkins]

So the conclusion of the study appears to be that there is generally no overall loss, even on buckets, even for very early tapping. But your post above (and my experience) seems to show otherwise. Do you think the three years tested were somewhat outliers? Or is there some other help you can provide to reconcile these two concepts that seem to be in conflict?

Note that this study was conducted by Tim Wilmot (retired UVM Extension Maple Specialist), so it is not "my" study."

1. This is why we will often repeat studies over several years. Results can vary somewhat from year-year (depending upon the research and methods), and those unusual years just amplify that problem. Two normal years is usually our minimum, often we'll do three, and if there's a weird year...definitely three. We don't even like to talk much about studies in progress until the work is complete.
2. We are in a fairly cold wet location up on the slope of Mt. Mansfield. We are not down in the Champlain Valley as someone else alluded. Cold and snowy up here in many years.
3. Sanitation was most likely VERY GOOD in that work, so the tapholes and equipment started out about as good as you can get. If you're not doing a really good job of sanitation, your tapholes WILL dry out faster.
4. The results show that tapping early even with buckets is, on average, a good strategy for capturing good sap yields UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES NOTED ABOVE. Note that not every year is "average", so some years you may find it doesn't work out, other years it will.
5. The weather is quite variable, and just a few days of hot weather can result in rapid microbial proliferation.

Given all that, my personal recommendation FOR GRAVITY SAP COLLECTION splits the baby to some degree. Since most people who use buckets tend to have smaller operations (as compared to thousands, tens of thousands, or even more), being prepared to go, but waiting until the forecast is favorable is probably the best approach. If you can tap in an afternoon or even a day, it isn't going to hurt to wait until conditions look good.

For VACUUM, the circumstances are often different. Operations tend to be larger, but for smaller operations where you can tap in a day or two, be ready to go but wait until conditions look favorable. For those with the larger operations (thousands or tens of thousands), you don't have the luxury of waiting. Pick a timeframe that'll allow you to finish tapping at least a little before the sap normally runs. The better the sanitation the better your "insurance" policy that tapholes won't dry out.

[DrTimPerkins]

Me too. I wonder if these are the sorts of things that make my trees shut down faster than those in the study DrTim referenced. Maybe he and the other folks at the Proctor facility just aren't introducing the "starter culture" that some of us are putting into our tapholes.


My main problem is I take the bag of 100 spouts and set them in the front pocket of my apron for easy access. Shavings, bark, and stuff ends up falling in the bag. And I get some of that same stuff in the bag each time I reach in to fetch a new spout. By the end of the 100 I've got a good collection of debris.

We don't do anything especially special. Bags of new CV spouts in the vest. That seems to be clean enough. We're not talking sterile here. You're introducing some microbes by tapping and placing the spout, but not enough to be problematic. Main thing is that the spout is CLEAN and/or SANITIZED. Don't put them in your mouth.

DO NOT SANITIZE THE TAPHOLES. Interestingly, in looking at a variety of ways to sanitize tapholes we found that the results of sanitizing (alcohol, bleach, etc.) were often worse (occasionally better, but frequently worse in terms of sap yield). We think what happens is that when you sanitize the taphole, the environment inside the taphole is so clean that if bad microbes do get in have no competition so they grow explosively (and result in rapid taphole drying).

There was some research done decades ago looking at aseptic tapping (so basically as close to sterile as possible). Sap yields were quite high (and sap quality was very high also), but the effort it took to do that was extraordinary (hours per taphole). The scars still are visible on the trees where it was done. Not recommended.

[berkshires]

Note that this study was conducted by Tim Wilmot (retired UVM Extension Maple Specialist), so it is not "my" study."

1. This is why we will often repeat studies over several years. Results can vary somewhat from year-year (depending upon the research and methods), and those unusual years just amplify that problem. Two normal years is usually our minimum, often we'll do three, and if there's a weird year...definitely three. We don't even like to talk much about studies in progress until the work is complete.
2. We are in a fairly cold wet location up on the slope of Mt. Mansfield. We are not down in the Champlain Valley as someone else alluded. Cold and snowy up here in many years.
3. Sanitation was most likely VERY GOOD in that work, so the tapholes and equipment started out about as good as you can get. If you're not doing a really good job of sanitation, your tapholes WILL dry out faster.
4. The results show that tapping early even with buckets is, on average, a good strategy for capturing good sap yields UNDER THE CIRCUMSTANCES NOTED ABOVE. Note that not every year is "average", so some years you may find it doesn't work out, other years it will.
5. The weather is quite variable, and just a few days of hot weather can result in rapid microbial proliferation.

Given all that, my personal recommendation FOR GRAVITY SAP COLLECTION splits the baby to some degree. Since most people who use buckets tend to have smaller operations (as compared to thousands, tens of thousands, or even more), being prepared to go, but waiting until the forecast is favorable is probably the best approach. If you can tap in an afternoon or even a day, it isn't going to hurt to wait until conditions look good.

For VACUUM, the circumstances are often different. Operations tend to be larger, but for smaller operations where you can tap in a day or two, be ready to go but wait until conditions look favorable. For those with the larger operations (thousands or tens of thousands), you don't have the luxury of waiting. Pick a timeframe that'll allow you to finish tapping at least a little before the sap normally runs. The better the sanitation the better your "insurance" policy that tapholes won't dry out.

Thanks for the detailed response. That adds a lot of nuance, and helps a lot.

Sounds like maybe my sanitation could have been better, or it could have been the fact that there was three days when it got into the fifties in February for me that year (and then a very warm spell around the beginning of March) that did in my taps. That said, I may be able to keep my taps a little cleaner, but not much I can do about the weather! So I'll stick with my strategy, which is also what you suggest.

Cheers,

GO

[Swingpure]

Given all that, my personal recommendation FOR GRAVITY SAP COLLECTION splits the baby to some degree. Since most people who use buckets tend to have smaller operations (as compared to thousands, tens of thousands, or even more), being prepared to go, but waiting until the forecast is favorable is probably the best approach. If you can tap in an afternoon or even a day, it isn't going to hurt to wait until conditions look good.

This makes a lot of sense to me and eases my fears. Even being my first time tapping, I should get them all done in one day or two days at the most, so I can go with a three day forecast.

Thanks

Gary

[Sugar Bear]

This has certainly been my experience. For example in 2020 I was swayed to tap on 2/10, which is two weeks earlier than my average best tap date. There were several small runs those first few weeks (which also means the microbes were warm enough to start growing.) Then I had a normal season until... by the third week of March, when there were some huge potential runs, many of my trees had already shut down, and some others were only a trickle. A few (I can't remember which, but likely the north-facing ones) made it to the end of the March, when I typically pull my taps. But I absolutely would have gotten more from all my taps had I traded those small early runs for the monster ones in Mid to late March.

@DrTim - All that said, I have to admit I'm pretty confused. Looking at the study you linked here: https://mapleresearch.org/pub/m0608tappingtiming/ it appears that your results were very different from mine. In those gravity tests, comparing tap output of the early and "traditional" tapping dates for the last half of March (which is weeks six through eight on the "early") taps, I see no difference for two of the three years, and for 2002 only a 20% reduction.

So the conclusion of the study appears to be that there is generally no overall loss, even on buckets, even for very early tapping. But your post above (and my experience) seems to show otherwise. Do you think the three years tested were somewhat outliers? Or is there some other help you can provide to reconcile these two concepts that seem to be in conflict?

GO

One very important factor to keep in mind is that this study, done at the location it was done at, may EASILY show a very different result if done say 100 miles south of that location or yet again 200 miles south.

I have been making the drive from the mid/lower Hudson valley to about the location this study was done, on a regular/monthy basis every year since 1969. Especially in the January/February/March months.

The number of times I have seen deep snow pack in the Mad River Valley of Vermont and little to absolutely no snow pack south of Rutland Vermont in early March is absolutely not countable on two hands and two feet. ( I have still got 10 and 10 )

The vicissitudes of weather in the mid/lower Hudson valley are FAR greater than the site of this study and thus would have FAR more effect on the results of this type of study. Yes, results might be relatively similar on the ( well managed ) vacuum system as Tim will likely point out, but likely to differ measurably on gravity and or natural vacuum from one location to the other.

In short the microbial incubation that can be frequently occurring in the Mid Hudson Valley in February is rarely so jubilant on the western slopes of Mt Mansfield in February.

You could make a similar comparison between nearly all parts of Massachusetts and even many other parts of Vermont, although perhaps not as significant.

So when we apply rules of the north to rules of the south without distinction, then the farther south you go in the maple taping range the more difficult the time to tap equation becomes and of course the more likely makers are to end up double tapping and or damaging their trees.

Simply put the more boreal the sugarbush the tighter the season is going to be. That is a benefit to tapping boreal bushes. Get it all done at once.

By the way we have pretty decent sap flow in these parts today I'll bet!

[DrTimPerkins]

One very important factor to keep in mind is that this study, done at the location it was done at, may EASILY show a very different result if done say 100 miles south of that location or yet again 200 miles south.

Although this can certainly be the case, the extent and timing of any differences observed is most likely dependent on what is being considered in terms of the physiological processes. The tree physiology is basically the same from one place to another. Vacuum is vacuum no matter where you go. Good sanitation is possible if you do things properly. Best management practices for tapping can be identical from place to place. The genetics of the trees and the weather can certainly vary. Taking those factors into account is necessary in determining how trees will respond.

I can't tell you how many times (lots) people say to us "it isn't possible to get sap yields here like you do", with a whole bunch of excuses that probably aren't relevant. It seems to stay that way...until some neighbor near them does...suddenly it becomes possible and achievable.

[Sugar Bear]

Although this can certainly be the case, the extent and timing of any differences observed is most likely dependent on what is being considered in terms of the physiological processes. The tree physiology is basically the same from one place to another. Vacuum is vacuum no matter where you go. Good sanitation is possible if you do things properly. Best management practices for tapping can be identical from place to place. The genetics of the trees and the weather can certainly vary. Taking those factors into account is necessary in determining how trees will respond.

I can't tell you how many times (lots) people say to us "it isn't possible to get sap yields here like you do", with a whole bunch of excuses that probably aren't relevant. It seems to stay that way...until some neighbor near them does...suddenly it becomes possible and achievable.

What I am conjecting here and confidently so, is that taps are more susceptible to getting old ( drying up ) faster in my location if I tap on January 15th then they are in your location if you tap on January 15th. Not so much on a well set/managed vacuum system, but certainly on gravity or natural vacuum lines.

[SkunkWorks]

SugarBear: Will you tap early ? I recall in the past you tapped around Feb 15 for maximum effect = (syrup/hr of effort)

[SkunkWorks]

Based on the paper, sap from early taps will have lower sugar, but little loss of volume:

"Sap sugar content in January, particularly in 2006, was low compared to sugar content in March. During the first runs in 2006, the sap averaged 1.3% brix, compared to 2.1% by mid-March. In 2007, the January sap run averaged 1.8% compared to 2% in March."

Seems this was contrary to the Author's expectations:

"Sap sugar content is unlikely to be affected by tapping date, with the exception that sap collected in January or early February may be less sweet."

[Sugar Bear]

SugarBear: Will you tap early ? I recall in the past you tapped around Feb 15 for maximum effect = (syrup/hr of effort)

At this point I do not yet plan to tap early but that could change. As the guys have said lots of weather yet to come before even considering chucking up the bit.

It is a warm one for sure. Read it was 67 degrees in Anchorage Alaska on the 26th. Broke the record by 20 degrees. OUCH! to all ye global warming naysayers!

I got a big fat Downy that has put quite a few pokes in trees showing me how well the sap has been running ever since November.

I have been tempted to snipe the fat bastard but I have given murder of animals up for at least a while. Everybody is trying to make a living.

Although if I left lines out all summer and squirrels were having at them, I would certainly become a killer again. World Champion!

Anyway, the sap has been running well at worst, on our frozen nights and rather warm days such that the sugar ants are marching about Grand military style. Looks like a communist military parade.

Surprised I have not read of anybody making Autumn Gold in the northeast yet.

Spouts going in ... in the midwest I have heard. But that is the Midwest.

I need Dr Perkins to explain how a lot of sap running in the fall effects the Vernal Run. What it means for it and how it impacts it.

Does a strong Autum run mean Sugar over the dam?

Certainly this Autum sap has sugar in it or the ants would not give a lick!

[Swingpure]

Whether it be Connecticut, Vermont, or Ontario, January and February are the coldest months of the year, so lots of winter left. As I mentioned in the first post on this thread, the seasonal forecast is for a warmer than normal winter, with the usual cold spells, but there will be lots of extended mild spells. So far they are dead on here. (They are also dead on out west will they predicted some long stretches of severe cold and they are in the midst of some -40 temps)

If a mild spell hits mid to late February here, I will sure be tempted to start tapping then.

[Sugar Bear]

Whether it be Connecticut, Vermont, or Ontario, January and February are the coldest months of the year, so lots of winter left. As I mentioned in the first post on this thread, the seasonal forecast is for a warmer than normal winter, with the usual cold spells, but there will be lots of extended mild spells. So far they are dead on here. (They are also dead on out west will they predicted some long stretches of severe cold and they are in the midst of some -40 temps)
If a mild spell hits mid to late February here, I will sure be tempted to start tapping then.

IMO ... Warm weather in late December and through much of January is more of a reason not to tap early then it is a reason to tap early.

Especially if you are on gravity vacuum or even more so on buckets.

With regards to anywhere north of the Delaware and Alleghany Valleys, going at the last week of February and the first two weeks of March with old taps is like dumping three aces in poker. It can work, although most of the time, even with our world getting a tad off axis, it is not going to.

We still live in a world that goes round and round.

For those that re-tap that is their problem and the trees I guess too.

[DrTimPerkins]

For those that re-tap that is their problem and the trees I guess too.

That is certainly the case. Although more work needs to be done on this subject, research thus far indicates that retapping (reaming, bumping, drilling tapholes deeper, drilling close to previous taphole in the same season, etc.) are very highly damaging to trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlnqFny5tpk&t=351s

[DrTimPerkins]

Based on the paper, sap from early taps will have lower sugar, but little loss of volume:

"Sap sugar content in January, particularly in 2006, was low compared to sugar content in March. During the first runs in 2006, the sap averaged 1.3% brix, compared to 2.1% by mid-March. In 2007, the January sap run averaged 1.8% compared to 2% in March."

Seems this was contrary to the Author's expectations:

"Sap sugar content is unlikely to be affected by tapping date, with the exception that sap collected in January or early February may be less sweet."

Pretty typical for fall, early-winter sap to be lower in sugar. It ramps up and peaks quickly as sap starts to flow, then drops off over the season, with some occasional transient upward surges after freezes, but the trend over the sap flow season is downward.

https://mapleresearch.org/pub/mn2020sapsugar/
https://mapleresearch.org/pub/wong2003/
https://www.uvm.edu/~uvmaple/sapsugarcontentvariation.pdf

[Sugar Bear]

That is certainly the case. Although more work needs to be done on this subject, research thus far indicates that retapping (reaming, bumping, drilling tapholes deeper, drilling close to previous taphole in the same season, etc.) are very highly damaging to trees.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlnqFny5tpk&t=351s

I would also imagine that whatever damage trends occur in double tapping in Northern Vermont are pretty much guaranteed to trend at the same rate or worse in say Springfield MO. So I feel that this data is 100.00000% applicable to my tapping environment where I am. And would be to anywhere else in the tapping range as well.

Not so much of a difference with this though as there might be with total sap flow from a early tapping date to a standard tapping date, based on location/climate.

The key to not double tapping is not getting yourself in the situation where it is a reasonable option.

I hate when that happens, l.E. boxing oneself into being unethical.

Although it seems to be our standard MO nowadays.

[DrTimPerkins]

I would also imagine that whatever damage trends occur in double tapping in Northern Vermont are pretty much guaranteed to trend at the same rate or worse in say Springfield MO. So I feel that this data is 100.00000% applicable to my tapping environment where I am. And would be to anywhere else in the tapping range as well.

That is almost certainly going to be the case, given that the tree physiological response is the same regardless of location. There is always the possibility there might be some differences, but these are likely to be quite minor and not necessarily in the right direction (could just as well be worse than better).

[berkshires]

Okay so NOAA just came out with its first prediction for Feb, and it unequivocally suggests that Feb will be warm in New England. They will come out with their forecast for the first half of Feb today. We'll see what that shows.

I wanted to include screenshots, but despite what the administrator said, it still does not seem possible to upload pics.

GO

[DrTimPerkins]

I wanted to include screenshots, but despite what the administrator said, it still does not seem possible to upload pics.

I believe that the update will be coming at the end of January/early-Feb timeframe.

[berkshires]

Okay so NOAA just came out with its first prediction for Feb, and it unequivocally suggests that Feb will be warm in New England. They will come out with their forecast for the first half of Feb today. We'll see what that shows.

I wanted to include screenshots, but despite what the administrator said, it still does not seem possible to upload pics.

GO

Their forecast for the first half of Feb is much less certain. It just says 50-55% chance of being warmer than average. So I guess right now the first half of Feb is supposed to be a tossup, but the second half is supposed to be warmer. Will be interesting to see how it shapes out in reality.

GO

[Swingpure]

Our November and December were pretty benign, but our January has been pretty cold. Our average low temperature is 9°C or 16°F colder than last year. I was hoping for the predicted mild spells, but no January thaw and February is starting off cold.

Things can change quickly with a big move by the jet stream, but so far the 14 day forecasts doesn’t look promising. February is a full winter month here, so that is not surprising.

[ennismaple]

Our November and December were pretty benign, but our January has been pretty cold. Our average low temperature is 9°C or 16°F colder than last year. I was hoping for the predicted mild spells, but no January thaw and February is starting off cold.

Things can change quickly with a big move by the jet stream, but so far the 14 day forecasts doesn’t look promising. February is a full winter month here, so that is not surprising. Overall I've been happy with this winter's weather. Not a lot of snow early allowed me to get most of my lateral replacement project done without wading through snow. The very cold temps with no snow drove the frost pretty deep, plus the -35 C we've seen a few nights should kill the remaining gypsy moth egg masses. There's no crust in the 20"+ of snow we got last week and I know it will settle, plus there will undoubtedly be more to come. The only downside is the cold temps are tough on equipment like cable skidders and has kicked the crap out of my woodpile for the house!

[Swingpure]

-33° C here this morning.

Our normal high/low for January is -3° C (+26.6 F) / -13° C (+8.6°F)
Last year our average for January was -1.8° C (+28.8° F) / -9.3° C (+15.3° F)
This year our average so far is: -5.6° C (+21.9° F) / -18.4° C (-1.1° F)

This January is colder than average and certainly colder than last year.

A friend who is an experienced maple syrup maker, passed on a message today, that we were 30 days away from the sap flowing. I think he maybe said that just to get my juices flowing! Lol

[blissville maples]

I follow Judah Cohen , probably the best climatologist out there, he does weekly blogs on the Arctic polar vortex and the troughs and ridges of the jet stream, factor in Barents sea ice cover, Siberian snow cover, the Julian Madeline oscillation and all kinds of stuff, very very intense forecasting models which he has records for decades and often correlate current year to a year he seas similar.

He's been watching the stretched polar vortex events we've been having and we will have another coming up. February WILL NOT be a warmer than average month that's a fact. And so far his money is on a cool March, atleast the first couple weeks. Of course we will have warm spells but nothing super crazy. The guy is good I've followed for the last 4-5 years and he's accurate 80+ percent of time


Not going to be a good season for high elevation and Canada! Alot of frost setting in and they're not going to see alot of sap until middle to end of March, when we could warm up suddenly. Will def. Be another good year for the bulk prices.

[Swingpure]

The guy is good I've followed for the last 4-5 years and he's accurate 80+ percent of time.

I am hoping this is one of the 20% of the times he is wrong. Lol

[blissville maples]

Haha, yes there is a slight chance! There's always that what's supposed to happen, what we want to happen, and then what will happen!! Time will tell...

[Swingpure]

Only time will tell us how the Spring weather will unfold. Being my first season, I am hoping that it will be a good year. Environment Canada (like your NWS) has probability forecast models and they are calling for warmer than normal temperatures for March and April. I am sure if I found 5 forecast models they all will be different.

Being an optimist and strongly hoping for a good season, I will go to sleep at night, thinking about the Environment Canada model. Lol

https://share.icloud.com/photos/039YMDQJ-0mbH8t8ISSmVMX6g

[aamyotte]

This being my second year I also hope for good weather. I don't want the abrupt end of season like last year.

[Sugar Bear]

Only time will tell us how the Spring weather will unfold. Being my first season, I am hoping that it will be a good year. Environment Canada (like your NWS) has probability forecast models and they are calling for warmer than normal temperatures for March and April. I am sure if I found 5 forecast models they all will be different.

Being an optimist and strongly hoping for a good season, I will go to sleep at night, thinking about the Environment Canada model. Lol

https://share.icloud.com/photos/039YMDQJ-0mbH8t8ISSmVMX6g


The easiest way to deal with this kind of thing for me is to recognize that a "bad" sugaring season is still a "good" sugaring season.

[Swingpure]

I follow Judah Cohen , .

This weather forecast link showed up in my Googles news feed.

This guy uses some of the same terminology as Judah and talks about the lower and upper components of the polar vortex being “connected”.. His forecast is understandable in layman’s terms. It is long winded, but interesting. It takes a while to actually get to February’s and March’s forecast. Essentially it says February will be cold and March it warms up.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/strong-polar-vortex-unusual-weather-united-states-cold-forecast-pattern-fa/

[JoeJ]

How much is the long range forecast really worth? NOT VERY MUCH. I made a chart of the 10 day forecast in my area to see how close the temperatures were predicted and what they really were 10 days later.

Date.....!0 days ago......now
Feb 8.........22..............34. (yesterday actual high)
Feb 9.........18..............32
Feb 10.......25..............39
Feb 11.......30..............36
Feb 12.......28..............42

I need 6 or 7 days to tap my 3,200 trees and even the previous 6 day forecast is not very good.

Joe

[DrTimPerkins]

How much is the long range forecast really worth? NOT VERY MUCH.

Agree completely. Long-range forecasting of the weather is difficult at best, especially for something as sensitive to small changes in temperature above and below freezing like sap flow. Just a few degrees off high or low makes a huge difference.

[Sunday Rock Maple]

This is a long thread so my apologies if someone has already tossed in Yogi Berea' s classic observation that "predictions are very difficult, especially about the future".

[DrTimPerkins]

My long-range prediction, guaranteed to be 100% accurate, is that after the winter ends, it will warm up. Then next fall it'll start to get cold again. :cool:

[DrTimPerkins]

NOAA/NWS Long-range Feb-April Outlook

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

[Andy VT]

This guy uses some of the same terminology as Judah and talks about the lower and upper components of the polar vortex being “connected”.. His forecast is understandable in layman’s terms. It is long winded, but interesting. It takes a while to actually get to February’s and March’s forecast. Essentially it says February will be cold and March it warms up.

Dang! I too was predicting March would be warmer than February, and I just kept it to myself!
Sorry, well, not sorry, but couldn't resist! I know that's not quite what you or he meant...
Still going for March 1st (give or take) to hang my buckets based on the last couple years' bud-outs in April.
This year (unlike previous years) I'm going to hold off on the norways until the sugars are hopping and see if the norways produce a little better.
This is based on a neighbor who tapped a week after me last year and got like 4 times the yield from a norway as me.
Could be a freak accident but I aim to find out!