Wow could the end of the season be so near? [Archive]

red dorakeen

03-02-2016, 05:10 AM

This is my first year and being anxious I put out 9 taps January 25th. The 10 day forecast looked good and lo and behold its been good ever since. Now it looks like next week we’ll have highs in the upper 60°s and lows in the 40°s for at least 4 days. Will that likely be the end of maple season?

Seems early, but i think trees will start to bud with that sort of weather even though we’re bound to get some cold snaps. (this could be a very difficult spring for fruit trees.)

chuckwagon

03-02-2016, 04:11 PM

My first year also,(learned so much from the people here,thanks again)not sure when season Will end but I'll keep going to the end,the syrup taste way to good to stop now,I think I'm hooked,already thinking of building a bigger and better cooker for next year.

Klonce

03-02-2016, 04:15 PM

I hope it keeps going, the week ahead looks like it's going to be warm. Wish it wouldn't stop this is my second year. I hope I can product at least a few more bottles. Thanks Kevin

DoubleBrookMaple

03-02-2016, 05:27 PM

This is my fourth year. My first three years I did not tap until mid-late March. This year I tapped late January (30th). I have a PWS (Personal Weather Station) http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KVTREADS2#historyand can pull up statistics for a number of things.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center since last fall has predicted a warm winter, and expects this to continue right through the summer. My January average temperature this year was 7 degrees over the same period last year. We had the coldest February on record here last year, and my February average this year was 15 degrees warmer than last year. In mid March I had 3-4 ft of snow on the ground. This year I will probably have none. The trend continues..... My 10 day forecasts all show days 5-10 all over freezing. The less reliable 8-14 day forecasts also have lows mostly WELL ABOVE freezing.
Bottom line from someone who's hobby besides sugaring is weather watching.... I would not bet a thing on very much past next mid week when it warms up again.
I truly hope I am wrong, and etching my thoughts in stone here will make me wrong. I would like to use my freshly made RO a lot this year!

Here is my PWS Highs. Lows, and Averages the last two years for Jan & Feb..
January 2, 2015 - February 1, 2015
HIGH /40.6 °F LOW/ -14.9 °F AVERAGE/ 16 °F
January 30, 2015 - March 1, 2015
HIGH/ 34.5 °F LOW/ -15 °F AVERAGE/ 10.7 °F
January 2, 2016 - February 1, 2016
HIGH/ 48.5 °F LOW/ -2.1 °F AVERAGE/ 23 °F
January 31, 2016 - March 1, 2016
HIGH/ 51.6 °F LOW/ -21.6 °F AVERAGE/ 25.9 °F

BTW.... 2012 was a very bad year. This is the numbers from my station that year... Average just 1.4 degrees over this year!
February 1, 2012 - March 2, 2012
HIGH/ 48.6 °F LOW/ 2.3 °F AVERAGE/ 27.3 °F

saphound

03-02-2016, 08:00 PM

Thanks for that info, Eric. This is my second year so I don't know what to think. Last year seems like it was late, this year early. The weather here doesn't seem to know what normal is anymore. I haven't had to plow my driveway once yet this year...first time in 30 years. Not complaining too much about that, but it ain't right. Something tells me we'll still get snow in March, but I said that about February...

red dorakeen

03-02-2016, 08:34 PM

Interesting weather data Eric.

I've always been an avid gardener so weather observation has been important to me as well.

Perhaps another 4 or 5 days of maple season and then switch to gardening and golf.

40to1

03-02-2016, 09:11 PM

I'm going to have to pull taps on Monday. :(
It's been a two week season. This is crazy. I got drowned in the Sap Tsunami, but when it's so warm the sap can go putrid fast. How the trees haven't gone to bud is beyond me. Perhaps they think it's still late November... but no freezing nighttime temps after Monday (sigh....)
With weather this warm I shouldn't be sugaring, but starting the garden!

I'm looking forward to next year: so that I can try to forget about the last two seasons.

pyro

03-02-2016, 09:30 PM

I'm planning on boiling down Tuesday, and then dumping the next couple days worth since it will be high 60s. We'll see what happens from there.

saphound

03-03-2016, 05:27 AM

Pyro, why would you plan to dump sap before you know what it would taste like? It might still be ok fresh from the tree, it just won't keep long. That is if the trees give any...

SDdave

03-03-2016, 06:46 AM

Reading all this doom and gloom makes me shake my head. :mad: Just last season I had the same forecasts, same conditions, a 10 day season. Trees even budded. Getting frustrated I pulled the taps, cleaned everything up, and stored it all neatly back in the garage. Then whoa and behold the 11th day brought seasonal temps. Buds froze off, sap poured out of the trees, and poor me left with a gallon of syrup that I hoarded to myself.

Just remember the weatherman is the only profession where you can be wrong most of the time and still keep your job.

SDdave

mudr

03-03-2016, 06:56 AM

Ask me in two weeks if the flow will shut down in one week. In the meantime, enjoy the humor below.

13496

Woodsrover

03-03-2016, 07:09 AM

After Sunday I'll clean my collection tank and let my lines run on the ground for the week. If it never gets cold again, so-be-it but I'm not ready to pull taps just yet.....

lpakiz

03-03-2016, 08:12 AM

I also wonder why the rush to pull taps when there is a chance to re-start the season. The taps do no further harm once they are installed. Unless you will have no opportunity to pull taps and clean up later, leave them in and see what happens.
And if you must pull them for scheduling reasons, well then, you would pull them on that date regardless, so there should be no anxiety there.
Don't borrow trouble. Leave them in until there is no further chance to get sap of the quality that you want.

red dorakeen

03-03-2016, 08:27 AM

I asked if 4 or 5 days of summer like temperatures would necessarily mean the end of the season because I really don't know.

I got a really early start (1/25) and had pretty good weather since. I'm guessing about as long a run as the average season, just earlier than usual.

I imagine folks who've doing this a long time have had early seasons before. Seems we're likely to get some more cold weather after next week's "heatwave" but would that mean we can get good sap again?

eagle lake sugar

03-03-2016, 08:36 AM

It seems funny seeing you guys talk about the end of the season when it hasn't even started here yet! We're looking for our first run around March 9th. Last year we didn't get a drop until April.

lpakiz

03-03-2016, 08:39 AM

Eagle lake,
Well said. The day you get your first sap run has nothing to do with the last day of the season. Usually it's a calendar thing, not a temperature thing.

billyinvt

03-03-2016, 08:42 AM

It seems funny seeing you guys talk about the end of the season when it hasn't even started here yet! We're looking for our first run around March 9th. Last year we didn't get a drop until April.
Next week looks really good for you. You guys probably even have a nice snow pack way up there.

Woodsrover

03-03-2016, 09:43 AM

It seems funny seeing you guys talk about the end of the season when it hasn't even started here yet! We're looking for our first run around March 9th. Last year we didn't get a drop until April.

I like to spend time on the other Eagle Lake. Nice country. Should have an early ice-out this year!

DrTimPerkins

03-03-2016, 10:08 AM

There really is no way to know for sure how the season will progress. The forecast is just a prediction of what might occur. You get beyond a few days and the reliability drops off. Relying on the forecast beyond 4-5 days is very questionable. Relying on the forecast beyond that is nuts.

Temperatures in the 50s aren't terrible, especially if it isn't really sunny or if it is raining. It is certainly not as bad as 60s-70s we had in mid-March 2012. Trees are not stupid....they've been around here a really long time and are quite well adapted. They don't break bud early very often in response to warm weather at this time of year. It does happen, but it is quite rare.

Basically the bottom line is that there isn't anything we can do to change the weather. I see absolutely no sense in worrying about things I can't control. Make syrup when the sap is running. When it stops for good, or turns buddy, you're done. But until that time....stop worrying and keep going.

Flat Rock Farmers

03-03-2016, 10:21 AM

Well said Doc!
"it ain't over till the fat lady sings!"
In our case the fat lady hasn't even entered the building. Using all buckets, we won't be tapped till this weekend!

buckeye gold

03-03-2016, 10:24 AM

Listen to Dr Tim, he's the man with the knowledge. I pulled my taps MOnday and my season is over. I complained about 60-70 degree days in February, but my sap stayed good. Now it might have spoiled after it ran out of the tree, but it was good to start. I ended season maybe 4-5 days sooner than average, but I was still getting some usable sap. It started turning cloudy last week and progressively got more cloudy. I quit because the warm weather was making all my gear start to get nasty and I decided I had done enough. My average end of season is between March 3rd and 10th, so it was not that far off from normal and the trees did not bud out way early. So don't fret about the trees they will do their part as best as they can.

guples

03-03-2016, 10:40 AM

I agree with Dr. Perkins I have worked in the woods logging and sapping my whole life and rarely have the trees ever budded this early. If I were to speculate I would say we have lots of sap coming. The earliest I ever remember the season ending was the end of march and that was after a week of 70 degree weather. So leave the taps in and the pumps on until its truly over. Happy sappin Les

red dorakeen

03-03-2016, 10:50 AM

Thank you for the reply Dr.TimPerkins,

Did the 60's and 70's in 2012 cause trees to bud. We'll be pretty close to that in my area if the forecast remains true.

Guess I'll just play by ear, nose and taste.

It's not so much a worry as learning what to anticipate.

If maple trees do bud out early and get hit with a lot of freezing weather does it damage them? Is there a chance one could get good sap should good tapping conditions return?

mainebackswoodssyrup

03-03-2016, 11:10 AM

I'm predicting a banner year that won't even start for us until next week :cool: Gotta stay positive folks!

DrTimPerkins

03-03-2016, 12:00 PM

Did the 60's and 70's in 2012 cause trees to bud.

If maple trees do bud out early and get hit with a lot of freezing weather does it damage them? Is there a chance one could get good sap should good tapping conditions return?

In looking back, the temperatures from March 19-22 throughout much of upstate NY and Vermont hit the mid-upper 70s and low-80s for 4 days, with very sunny weather, so the tree/branch/bud temperature was probably far higher than that. Therefore the "heat sum" was way higher than temperatures in the 50s. We found that black-colored spouts got up to nearly 10 deg F higher than clear-spouts, so they tended to "dry out" faster. The sugar maple vegetative buds started to swell (Stage 1 on a 5 point scale from winter condition to bud break) around March 22nd, and buddy off-flavor was noticed at that point.

In terms of damage, if the buds swell, but don't open, they still have some minimal level of cold tolerance, and can survive down to about 4-5 deg F below freezing. Once the buds fully open and the leaves emerge, cold tolerance is very poor, so a return to sub-freezing temperatures can cause leaf injury and death. In 2012, we had a good return to "normal" temperatures after the heat wave, and some people kept making syrup after that time, but most of it was buddy to some degree.

Typically what people first see in terms of buds are the flower buds, and most often, red maple flower buds. These tend to break the earliest. Vegetative buds open somewhat later. This makes sense as it is not nearly as problematic/costly for the tree to lose its flowers and seed potential than it is to lose its leaves and photosynthetic potential.

13501

GeneralStark

03-03-2016, 12:06 PM

And I suspect quite a bit of that late 2012 "off" syrup is still in many packer's warehouses.

markcasper

03-03-2016, 12:21 PM

Kind of makes you wonder what the old timers and Indians did in situations like this? The Indians didn't have a weather forecast to look up several hours a day like we do. He is right, 50's is not as bad as 70 and 80. I have been through years before tubing and vacuum where actual tapping was delayed to sit out a week long warm stretch in mid March until freezing conditions returned sometime after the 20th. The year 2000 comes to mind where it was downright hot the 1st week of March and then we had a cold snap the middle of the month getting down to 4 degrees with huge runs after. Before the cold snap the syrup was getting a hint of buddiness, after the cold snap it disappeared. 2012 was the disaster of disasters however.

DoubleBrookMaple

03-03-2016, 12:33 PM

In looking back, the temperatures from March 19-22 throughout much of upstate NY and Vermont hit the mid-upper 70s and low-80s for 4 days, with very sunny weather, so the tree/branch/bud temperature was probably far higher than that.
13501
Good to note... My March 18-23 highs were 70's to 80 here in 2012. This helps understand what it takes to cause the trees to be fooled. Like you said, they are smarter than we think. I have presented in my posts some numbers indicating an early/warm season, but in no way would predict a maple season outcome.
I certainly advocate for nobody to throw in the towel until you are truly down and out. I quit earlier than I should have one year, and will not again. I will just keep going until I cannot stand the flavor.

red dorakeen

03-03-2016, 02:32 PM

Thank you DrTimPerkins

What an incredible wealth of knowledge you share here to make an already great forum even better.

DaveB

03-03-2016, 03:07 PM

In looking back, the temperatures from March 19-22 throughout much of upstate NY and Vermont hit the mid-upper 70s and low-80s for 4 days, with very sunny weather, so the tree/branch/bud temperature was probably far higher than that. Therefore the "heat sum" was way higher than temperatures in the 50s. We found that black-colored spouts got up to nearly 10 deg F higher than clear-spouts, so they tended to "dry out" faster. The sugar maple vegetative buds started to swell (Stage 1 on a 5 point scale from winter condition to bud break) around March 22nd, and buddy off-flavor was noticed at that point.

In terms of damage, if the buds swell, but don't open, they still have some minimal level of cold tolerance, and can survive down to about 4-5 deg F below freezing. Once the buds fully open and the leaves emerge, cold tolerance is very poor, so a return to sub-freezing temperatures can cause leaf injury and death. In 2012, we had a good return to "normal" temperatures after the heat wave, and some people kept making syrup after that time, but most of it was buddy to some degree.

...

2012 was a special year and I don't that we're going to see that. Next week we might have 1 or 2 days in the 60s, not weeks of 60s and 70s. In 2012, save for three days between the 8th and 25th I had highs above 50° during an 18 day stretch. It culminated with a 6 day period with highs averaging 77° and there was 11 days without seeing freezing temps.

I'm with Dr Tim. I see no reason to pull taps until the season is really over and not based on a forecast (and I went to school for meteorology!).

maple marc

03-03-2016, 03:11 PM

It ain't over until the fat peeper sings. Listen for the spring peepers. It's amazing how they know when the show is over.

wnybassman

03-03-2016, 03:49 PM

In the 2012 season, we had two nights below freezing the entire month of March. One was early in the month, and one was quite late. I also remember catching bass on topwater frogs the last week of March, it was a crazy year.

NJ'S#1

03-03-2016, 04:13 PM

hoping for good run from tomorrow to monday, then things may get stinky. only boiled 5300 gal so far since 2/15.

pyro

03-03-2016, 11:21 PM

Reason I said I plan to dump the sap is because I only batch boil once a week. Sitting in upper 60s for a few days, I'd rather just dump those few days instead of finding out at the end of the entire week its bad. Definitely not removing taps. I prefer to do that in shorts and a t-shirt!

jrm

03-04-2016, 04:25 AM

I'm keeping my fingers crossed and leaving my taps in with the crazy warm weather predicted. But, I'll say I keep adding taps and gather the same amount of sap as the prior year. First year 3 taps and roughly 40 gal sap; last year 9 taps, roughly 40 gallons sap; this year 12 taps, roughly 46-50 gallons sap, although we. Tossed 5 gallon prior to boil because it tasted woody from rain water.

Nothing ran from the prior 24 hours when I checked yesterday afternoon... The temps stayed below freezing. The prior 24ish hours I pulled a total of 3 gallons from my 12 taps.

Planning to boil Sunday, so far only 12 gallons to evaporate. Hoping I'll get more to do at least once more weekend run. So far, 5 bottles (2x12 oz and 3x8 oz.)

bigschuss

03-04-2016, 05:49 AM

On average, I don't even start tapping until the first week of March. I'm at 2,000 ft. elevation on a cold and snowy plateau. Sure hope the season isn't over!

wnybassman

03-04-2016, 05:52 AM

Keeping my eyes on March 10th. This is right in the middle of the warm-up and yesterday they were saying 35 for a low. Today it has been changed to 31. Hopefully this trend continues!!

billyinvt

03-04-2016, 09:13 AM

Keeping my eyes on March 10th. This is right in the middle of the warm-up and yesterday they were saying 35 for a low. Today it has been changed to 31. Hopefully this trend continues!!
I noticed that too....what a change of fortune it would be if we get a freeze that night!!

wnybassman

03-04-2016, 04:08 PM

I noticed that too....what a change of fortune it would be if we get a freeze that night!!

Changed it again. 27º now!! And 32º the following night, and 26º a couple nights after that. There is hope!

MapleLady

03-05-2016, 07:44 AM

Sap hasn't run here since March 1st. Looking at the forecast for this coming week, I am hopeful that there will be some good runs. Although the daytime temps are going to be very warm, it looks like the evening temps will be cold. Time will tell, but I am not giving up hope for some more good sap!

Flatpan1

03-05-2016, 08:02 AM

I tapped on Jan 25. And have made 20 gallons of great syrup. Pulled all my taps on Monday. I am glad I I tapped early. Not sure what is going to happen this week. Good luck to all who are just getting going.

wnybassman

03-05-2016, 03:57 PM

Changed it again. 27º now!! And 32º the following night, and 26º a couple nights after that. There is hope!

30º now for Thursday night. Another site showing 35º. Hope is slipping away lol

Would be nice to be able to at least fill my orders for this year. Projecting this next run, I am a touch short.

Snappyssweets

03-05-2016, 04:06 PM

Snow pack is the possible saving grace for an extra day or two. If you have snow pack on the ground it may keep it cooler and thus work out to a below freezing temp on the trees if its close to freezing.

Hell I am thinking of going and shoveling snow up around the trunks tomorrow to try to get an extra day or two if possible on the runs.

Sugarmaker

03-05-2016, 06:06 PM

Guess its time for me to unplug the electric blankets on the trees!
Regards,
Chris

billyinvt

03-05-2016, 08:22 PM

All of the forecasts have cooled a bit. I am ready for a couple of big runs!

jetdoc

03-06-2016, 07:01 AM

We haven't heard from the spring peeper's here in North Central Ohio. That is usually the sign for us that the season is about over.

pennslytucky

03-06-2016, 07:49 AM

Days aren't long yet. Like Dr Perkins said, there's nothing in the forecast to worry about. Sap doesn't run every day, thank god, and this early on its nothing to lose sleep over. The trees count day length as well as weather and they know what's up. Even southern maples know better than to bud out the first week of march

D and D Sugar Camp

03-06-2016, 08:48 AM

DoubleBrookMaple

03-06-2016, 09:02 AM

Just finishing up a 150 gallon boil, and we are seeing the typical end of season signs in the near syrup sap; very dark, lots of "dirt" in the pre filters as we transfer into the final pan, more insects hanging around the collection point, and finally no freezing nights in the forecast with days in the 60s ahead. It's over after Monday for us, pulling taps midweek storing sap in our walk-in cooler and having our final boil and Family and Friends Annual Pancake Breakfast Saturday morning. We hope things work out for everyone that may have got a later start or are just getting started. We tapped in 1/26 and had our 1st small boil on 1/31.
We are still holding out hope further north, but things continue to look grim after this coming week. The latest (yesterday's update) NWS Climate Prediction Center 8-14 days outlook shows an even more widespread high probability (90%) of warm temps. I am hoping for a couple swings below freezing, but not more than a couple days close at this point.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

D and D Sugar Camp

03-06-2016, 10:04 AM

We are still hold out hope further north, but things continue to look grim after this coming week. The latest (yesterday's update) NWS Climate Prediction Center 8-14 days outlook shows an even more widespread high probability (90%) of warm temps. I am hoping for a couple swings below freezing, nut not more than a couple days close at this point.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/

We hope that all you guys further North get some more time. We just do this for fun, we understand what it means financially to any family or business that relies on syurp production as a source of income. Best wishes.

DaveB

03-06-2016, 10:51 AM

Despite temps here near 70° on Wednesday and lack of freezing weather for several days, I'll think I'll have a decent week here. Temps look ideal through Tuesday and it's been below freezing for several days so I think the sap will flow into Wednesday. After that, things don't good good until about the 20th so I'm hoping that things will hold out till then.

I remember a season about 10-15 years ago when I was still using buckets and we went through a warm stretch with limited freezing weather and I did not get much sap but I remember talking to a fellow producer who was on vacuum at the time and he did OK. That convinced me that vacuum was the way to go. Now I have vacuum on most of my lines so we'll see how things go.

I understand people who tapped early "pulling the plug" but I just don't think the season is over until it is over, regardless of the forecast.

wnybassman

03-06-2016, 06:51 PM

Hope is lost for Thursday night. Now showing a low of 40º Actually, after tonight, no notable freeze until March 21st. I'll leave taps in until at least the end of the week, then I'll base whether I pull taps or not on the forecast then. Hate to be done, but I don't want to linger around for week or two hoping to make a couple more gallons. I would have to extensively clean everything for that last bit of syrup and just not worth it for me. I'd rather clean up and get the boat out :lol:

saphound

03-07-2016, 09:43 AM

I'd settle for 2 more gallons...heck even one more gallon. Only made 3 qts so far. Wish I hadn't missed out on those early runs now, dammit. Stoopid forecast keeps changing.. for the worse. Still hopin tho..maybe it'll change again.

campus189

03-09-2016, 01:22 PM

Let me guess, your around Florida? lol
In Amherst it's in the 70's today.
Sap running like crazy, but all cloudy.
It's still over 2% sugar though, :)

red dorakeen

03-09-2016, 02:12 PM

Well, I think my first maple season is over. I boiled yesterday all the sap I had. I even collected from the taps towards the end of the boil.

What I've collected since I don't think is staying cold enough. I been putting bottle of ice in the buckets but it got over 80° today and the sap is about 60°.

I kinda doubt it will be any good.

jrm

03-09-2016, 06:51 PM

Let me guess, your around Florida? lol
In Amherst it's in the 70's today.
Sap running like crazy, but all cloudy.
It's still over 2% sugar though, :)
70+ here in Acton. Collected 17.5 gallons since Monday morning, that's more than I collected the prior week... This past Sunday's boil was only 11 gallons and half of that I hadn't gotten to on my first boil.

My freezer is full, and my fridge is getting there. My teenage and tween boys are wondering where all the food is. :lol:

I'd settle for 2 more gallons...heck even one more gallon. Only made 3 qts so far. Wish I hadn't missed out on those early runs now, dammit. Stoopid forecast keeps changing.. for the worse. Still hopin tho..maybe it'll change again.

I'm with you... I have 4 times the number of taps that I did in 2014, my first year, an I have roughly the same amount finished... 78 oz.

bowtie

03-10-2016, 07:39 PM

I am in wny and tapped around February 10th and have only finished 11 gallons of syrup, with around two left to finish, from 205 taps. I did not collect yesterday so I may have missed some, if it even ran, but otherwise I have not missed any runs or had to dump any sap. If the weather holds I may be done, next run might be late next week, that is if the buds have not pushed, my silver maple in my lawn completely pushed buds yesterday, my sugars have not yet, yet. Oh well you can only get what Mother Nature gives and be happy with it.

DoubleBrookMaple

04-14-2016, 08:20 AM

Full post omitted
Bottom line from someone who's hobby besides sugaring is weather watching.... I would not bet a thing on very much past next mid week when it warms up again.
I truly hope I am wrong, and etching my thoughts in stone here will make me wrong. I would like to use my freshly made RO a lot this year!

Boy am I glad I was wrong!

Just did my last boil last night!