el nino 2015- 2016

[PATheron]

Is it looking like a warmer winter for the northeast than the last two years now? Theron

[WESTVIRGINIAMAPLER]

Theron,

You heading down to international conference this week?

I'll take the warm winter. I have found our long time ago only weather that matters is what you get in syrup season.

[GeneralStark]

Here is the last official winter weather summary from NOAA.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2015/101515-noaa-strong-el-nino-sets-the-stage-for-2015-2016-winter-weather.html

And an interesting interpretation of it:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3155

Seems like El Nino is certainly going to be a player, but too many other factors to really predict too much...

[n8hutch]

I agree, too many Scientists, none of them agree. You can't Fool Mother Nature but she can make a Fool out of You.

[DrTimPerkins]

I agree, too many Scientists, none of them agree.

Not really sure who you are agreeing with in regards to climate change, however the VAST majority of scientists who are actually doing climate research or are informed about it do agree that 1) the climate has been warming for the past half century or more, and 2) warming is very likely to continue for some time (although the rate and extent of change is certainly being debated), and 3) a significant factor in the warming is man-made. Yes, there may be some scientists who will debate the details (scientists are essentially trained skeptics and debaters after all), and some who won't be convinced regardless of the evidence, but to suggest that the preponderance of scientists can't agree on this subject is patently and demonstrably false. Very few "real" scientists continue to argue that it is volcanoes or sun-spot activity or any other such nonsense that is causing warming. The evidence is very clear that the majority of the change is due to human activity.

What is very interesting (but not surprising) to me is that it was recently found that energy companies knew about and accepted that climate change would happen and the major role of fossil fuels in causing global warming in causing this as far back as the late-1970s. http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/documents/1982%20Exxon%20Primer%20on%20CO2%20Greenhouse%20Ef fect.pdf Their response was first to keep this to themselves and second to fund efforts to discredit research and fund political activities to slow any legislation. It was quite effective. However now that they have found ways to make the whole issue of climate change pay (meaning we'll pay more for "clean" fuels and any CO2 pollution reductions), they're now jumping on board. The reason this is NOT surprising to me is that it mirrored the efforts of these same/similar companies on acid rain. The companies that were potentially going to be affected funded research on acid rain just long enough to show it was a problem, but then stopped all funding to study the issue, and began to spend far more money in efforts to discredit those same and continuing studies. The problem went on for another 15 yrs before finally the Clean Air Act Reauthorization of 1990 ended the debate. Since then, pollution controls that were implemented have lead to significant recovery of many of the impacted lakes and forests that were affected.

Finally, in terms of climate change effects on maple production.....the jury is still out. More correctly, the research is still inconclusive as to what the short term (50-100 yrs) and long term (100+ yrs) effects will be. While some like to argue that it will mean the demise of maple....that is not an absolute certainty. There are some scenarios that suggest that climate change may actually have some beneficial (at least for a period of time) effects on maple production. In the very long-term (200+ yrs) though, if climate warming is as severe as some models suggest, then maple production in much of the U.S. could be negatively impacted.

[PATheron]

General Stark thanks for the link. That is the newest info that Ive seen. I was thinking earlier that it would be a lot like last year butan hoping it wont be as cold. Last two years the ground was froze so hard it didn't run good for a long time. I always want to know what the general trend might be so I know how fast I want to tap in. If its going to be a real cold winter Ill take my time and tap it in once it freezes as I have time, if its going to be up and down with the temp Ill tap in first frozen week in jan as fast as I can. Brandon I really never go to any of the maple stuff that's going on Im always just working on my maple stuff. It would be fun but never want to take the time bad enough. Theron

[DaveB]

Dr Tim - I'm a meteorologist and a member of the AMS and have a number of colleagues that work in different areas that you discussed. While I agree with most points, I think the OP was just talking about agreeing on the effects of this el nino for the coming season and there has been some disagreement on what they will mean.

Most data points to equal chances of above normal or below normal snow/temps. That just means expect a "normal" (average) winter. If this fall is any indication, it's probably going to be drier than average. We're basically right on the line. Maybe the pattern will be wetter for the second half of winter.

[n8hutch]

I was just referring to the El-nino's effect on this winter & Sugaring season. Certainly not trying to debate climate change.

Generally speaking I am a believer in sound science based on facts & educated guessing. Just sometimes I am left wondering where these guys got there education.

[GeneralStark]

Yes I think this thread was certainly never intended to be about climate change. Of all the broad pattern factors that affect US weather El Nino is one that seems to be pretty well understood, though certainly when it comes to the Northeast there are too many other factors in play to be certain of which direction things may go unlike say southern CA.

I'm thinking the following is probably a pretty good way to approach this winter given past strong El Nino impacts on our weather.

"I would cast my lot on a mixed-bag winter from the mid-Atlantic to New England, with periods of marked warmth punctuated by occasional sharp but transient cold blasts."

It may be a good year to be ready to tap early...

[Flat Lander Sugaring]

ok who has been drinking the Al Gore Lemonade again

[PATheron]

Big temp swings would be good in my book. Tap early with good sanitation practices and get any early syrup that's possible. With the commercial syrup not being valuable anymore the most money will be the most good syrup you can make. Last year I had a run when I started tapping on like a thousand taps maybe and those taps went just fine until everyone was making commercial syrup. That run was the first week of January and those taps sat froze after that until almost April. If the weather does look to be up and down I might take the first frozen week off work and try to tap the whole works in and get any early runs on the whole works instead of just a few taps. Then if its froze after that just hook up more trees. I don't know anything about global warming one way or another but I do know if you run your car with the garage door down it will kill you but the atmosphere is pretty big. Gazillian cars? Theron

[unc23win]

[QUOTE=I'm thinking the following is probably a pretty good way to approach this winter given past strong El Nino impacts on our weather.

"I would cast my lot on a mixed-bag winter from the mid-Atlantic to New England, with periods of marked warmth punctuated by occasional sharp but transient cold blasts."[/QUOTE]

That would be more like 2013 wouldn't it? Here it was warmer earlier with a real cold snap in the middle of the season then the season ended about the same date as 14 and 15.

[PATheron]

That's what I was thinking too Jared. That sounds good to me. Theron

[DrTimPerkins]

I was just referring to the El-nino's effect on this winter & Sugaring season.

My apologies then.

[n8hutch]

No worries Dr. Perkins, I know how hard you work to keep us Informed. Your work certainly speaks for itself. I have learned a lot reading your posts. I think your publications and All the work done At UVM & elsewhere are as good as gold.

I guess some times I just get a little I annoyed with how there has to be a reason for everything in society these days, remember when we used to just say "Gees that was a early spring " OR " That was A long cold Winter"

Call me old Fashioned but I liked it better when there was a little more "wonder" in the world.

Regardless I picked a poor thread to spout off on.