el nino and effects on northeast this coming winter

[PATheron]

Wondered what this winter is looking like for the northeast. What is Joe bastardy saying? Theron

[SeanD]

El Nino is one weather pattern that affects our winters/sugaring season. Another is the changing patterns in the northern jet stream that have dipped arctic temperatures into the sugaring region. We really saw the affects of that condition here the last two years where things were frozen solid right through most of March.

Here's an article from the Globe from today that explains the changing patterns as a result of the rapidly melting sea ice. The focus of the article is on the specific changing conditions up at the Arctic Circle, but there's a part in the middle that connects to our weather patterns here.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/07/11/the-big-unchill/JNbnstRLER1EGErgBEO7MO/story.html

Here's an excerpt:
Scientists have attributed Boston's historic cold spell and snowfall last winter to shifts in the polar jet stream.
The normal polar jet stream has typically kept cold arctic air north of the mainland US in the winter.
The changed jet stream though has pushed cold weather down into the Eastern US, and pulled warm weather up through the western US and Alaska.

Sean

[BreezyHill]

Our snow trails have gone both ways...lots of snow and little snow from el nino summers. Still a roll of the dice.

Just look at our weather the last week. Rained when it was to be sunny and sunny when it was to be showers. I don't hold much stock in weather predictions especially when it is 2015 and in the 1990's they were saying that we would not have any snow in NY state by that time. Drought would grip 70% of the US, just look back at the speeches gore made.

It isn't the weather that is slowly killing us it is the politicians.

[SeanD]

I think they get it right more often than they get it wrong. That's why we keep tuning in. It's just that when it's wrong, we remember it more vividly. Day to day forecasts more than a handful of days out is tricky to be as exact as we want, but they get the long-term trends right most of the time.

Last fall, I watched a show the local meteorologists did about the upcoming winter. They predicted a polar vortex similar to '14 and more snow to boot. On Christmas it was 60 and the ground was still bare on MLK Day. I thought they blew it in epic proportions. Well, a couple of weeks later we were living in a frozen moonscape until April. They didn't get the exact timing right, but overall they hit the mark for this area.

Sean

[PATheron]

I like to try to have an idea of what the overall trend is going to be. If it looks like a cold winter I know I wont really make much syrup until March. That way once it gets to be January I feel I can kind of take my time tapping and tap the warmer woods first and just putter along at it till I get it done. If it looks like its going to be a warmer winter Ill wait until January when it freezes up but then Ill tap it in as fast as I can so I don't miss anything. Usually we don't make much until March but one year I tapped it in all fast and was really glad because that year we made half our crop in February. With more syrup being made and the mersh not being valuable I don't want to miss any good syrup. I think they get the general trends right too. Theron

[BreezyHill]

I guess as a farmer, grooming snow trails in the winter, I take a closer look at the weather. The cows nd horses will need twice as much hay on a below zero night than in the teens. There were several times we had to reefed in the am to make up for the oops of the weather men. I got to meet one local guy at the fair when he visited our booth after a news cast. He asked point blank" as a farmer what do you think of our reports and what would help you more?"

I replied you are the only station I will listen to as you are rigth about 6 out of 10 times and hay wont dry if the dew point is above 70% so that info would be very helpful. Paul smiled and thanked me for my honesty. He soon was including dew point and has visit from year to year.

Hopkinton is where my sister in law lives and you had it bad! Didn't you go a week with school closed due to snow.

It is a SWAG at best but it bets what it was when I was young...but NYS Parks and Rec shows snow is a 10 year cycle and last year was to be the high snow fall of the 10 cycle and this should be on the downward side of the cycle but still a fair amount of snow. But remember if the temp is off by only 5 degrees it is rain and not snow. 5 in the other direction and it is a lot of light fluffy snow that drifts and really sucks.

[GeneralStark]

El Nino and La Nina tend to not have a consistent impact on weather patterns here in the Northeast. Generally there are equal chances of temps. and precip. being above or below average in El Nino years.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts up to 13 months out so if you are trying to figure out what next winter will be like just check out their forecast products:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/