What will our industry look like 25 years from now?

[pdr]

Expanded markets? 400 gallon-per-acre orchards popping up around the globe? Lower prices? Increased regulation? Advances in technology? Etc., etc. What do y'all envision?

[adk1]

I envision that I will be 65 years of age then and still making syrup. I might even have upgraded to a vac system! haha. This will be an interesting thread to watch.

[wrushton]

I see more automation in the sugar camps, running it from your phone or laptop ,from boiling to canning don't have touch any of it.

[GeneralStark]

Improved evap. efficiency and new technologies. Better ROs. Biodegradeable tubing systems.

Regions that are making syrup now won't be due to climate change and or invasive pests.

Oh and helium injection will be the norm.

[Rhino]

If any of you watch doomsday preppers we will all be making syrup off the grid, protecting our syrup and sugar bounty, in bullet and fire proof bunkers or forts, or bartering it for bullets, moonshine and smokes. In 25 years i will be 71, so if there isn't a economic meltdown i would think the way the syrup equipment is getting better, as far as production output, the price will go down. I would like to see my grandson be able to take over or do it in some way though. Wonder what the climate change will be like also in 25 years and what effect that will have on the production in certain areas. (as a side note..... im not a prepper, and im not political, but as i watch the news, and watch some of these preppers, i have to wonder if they have the right idea while most of us are sitting on our hands?)

[markcasper]

I wish people would stop talking about global warming, climate change, etc....Its in all the seminars, its in the books and magazines, and in case noone knew it...Antarctica just posted the coldest ever temperature recorded since record-keeping began, -138. Some people evidently follow NPR a little too much. There may be climate change, or climate variables, but the nonsense of it coming from CO2 is silly. The sun is the main driver.

Invasive pests are a big concern to the maple industry, but the number 1 situation that will spell the maple industry in 25 years is this tyrannical government that we have. If things continue as they are, we all will be serfs slaving away in woods that we once owned, and that would be best case.

[GeneralStark]

I wish people would stop talking about global warming, climate change, etc....Its in all the seminars, its in the books and magazines, and in case noone knew it...Antarctica just posted the coldest ever temperature recorded since record-keeping began, -138. Some people evidently follow NPR a little too much. There may be climate change, or climate variables, but the nonsense of it coming from CO2 is silly. The sun is the main driver.

Invasive pests are a big concern to the maple industry, but the number 1 situation that will spell the maple industry in 25 years is this tyrannical government that we have. If things continue as they are, we all will be serfs slaving away in woods that we once owned, and that would be best case.

I find it ironic that in the same post you discourage open discussion of an issue that could significantly impact our industry in the next 25 years while complaining about a "tyrannical government". Is it just me?

[shane hickey]

25 year from now I'll be 55 I'll be retired and hand everything over to my boys they will either sell it all or run everything with a phone and computer everything will change except someone will always have yo collect those **** buckets lol

[DrTimPerkins]

Antarctica just posted the coldest ever temperature recorded since record-keeping began, -138.

Actually, that's not quite correct. The recent study you refer to found what is now considered to be the record cold spot on earth (using satellite records), which reaches -138 deg F. That is not the same as the coldest temperature ever....just that they'd never found the coldest spot before because it is just too remote (actually rather nice in a way to think there are still spots like that on earth).


There may be climate change, or climate variables, but the nonsense of it coming from CO2 is silly. The sun is the main driver.

Yes, the sun definitely has an influence on climate, however the sun is not the primary driver of the recent climate change. This has been shown in several studies, yet it is repeated quite often (repetition does not mean what is being said is correct).

For this forum, what is probably of more interest is that the impact of climate change on maple is not likely to be all that dire. Although the timing of the season has shifted (towards earlier in the calendar year) and has shorted by about 10% in duration over the past 50 yrs (fortunately technological improvements in sap collection have more than made up for any losses). Even more strange and unexpected is that there are some indications that a moderate amount of climate change might actually be quite beneficial, and result in significantly more sap production, for at least a period of time.

[jmayerl]

Close to twice our world population as now, we will lag well behind china in most economic areas, much higher demand world wide for sweeteners so good luck for us, relative stable prices on syrup but most will go to bulk and into sugar. It's written here, mark my words! Hehe

[spud]

In 25 years from now I think we will all be tapping November 1st and pulling spouts March15th. One gallon per tap will be the norm but places like PMRC will be getting 2 GPT. At that time I will be a coffee farmer in Kona and the kids can have the sugar woods.

Spud

[gmcooper]

I can see that new technology will definitely be wide spread. We currently have operations now that can start and monitor remote pumping stations with an IPod. Can't say it will be a stretch to run an evaporator from a phone/electronic communication device. Already have RO's that can go to 45 brix. Tapping trees may not change much. Production might increase considerably and prices may drop. I can see China getting in on maple syrup (might be fake and contaminated but they can't pass up an opportunity to make a buck). ON the other hand I can see FDA putting a severe crimp in production by implementing regulations that will put most small (<20,000 tap operations out of business).
With any luck I'll still be around helping one of our boys with sugaring.

[BlueberryHill]

In 25 years it will be all doom and gloom in the news. The economy will be on the brink of collapse and we will all be in imminent danger of climate change. Then I'll shut off the baloney boob tube and go out and have a great, relaxing time gathering & boiling sap. Won't be any different then now for me, but it'll probably just hurt more.

Thinking more on this... Hopefully my chainsaw won't be confiscated for emissions by then. Will we be required to have EPA Certified catalytic evaporators? Hybrid 4-wheelers?

[markcasper]

Yes, the sun definitely has an influence on climate, however the sun is not the primary driver of the recent climate change. This has been shown in several studies, yet it is repeated quite often (repetition does not mean what is being said is correct).
.
If the sun is not the primary driver, then what is? Why was global warming renamed to climate change? And what will affect our maples more over the next 25 years, global warming or climate change?

[markcasper]

I find it ironic that in the same post you discourage open discussion of an issue that could significantly impact our industry in the next 25 years while complaining about a "tyrannical government". Is it just me?
You would have answered your question if you would have read my prior post completely.

[PATheron]

Im optimistic about the future of maple. I think the bulk price might go down but overall Im thinking a lot of good has happened in the industry. When I was a kid you could do pretty good gravity here and then the weather did kind of change and some years were pretty bad but now everyone has vacuum pumps and with them its no problem to get sap. Now if you put new taps in the holes your holes don't dry out. Theres tons of people out of the maple area that don't eat maple syrup now that there is a huge future market. You can just role with the climate change and tap when you need to, if people can make syrup in Kentucky and Virginia and such it seems to me itll be a long time before were all out of business. If the bugs eat our trees Doc has the sapling thing figured out. I say the Sun is shining on the maple industry go get some sap! Theron

[madmapler]

In 25 years it will be all doom and gloom in the news. The economy will be on the brink of collapse and we will all be in imminent danger of climate change.

In 25 years?

[BlueberryHill]

In 25 years? Yeah, I was kinda being a wise guy. Trying to say that sort of thing won't change much. And that the dire predictions won't come true. Sorry, I know this tangent was not the intention of the original post so I'll try to keep my kooky liberty-loving mouth shut unless I have something maple related to say.

[tcross]

global warming was changed to climate change, because that's what the climate does... it changes over a period of time! In 25 years I don't think all that much will change in the syrup industry in the way of how syrup is made!! you still have to tap the trees, collect the sap, then boil it down! the time tables to tap may change from time to time and may get a little more unpredictable! the industry is already becoming automated! with gadgets such as Ipads and Google Glasses, things in the way of Technology will become streamlined and less hands on will become the norm! people are becoming lazier and try to find ways so they don't have to work so hard or spend as much time to produce their product... making the system more efficient, trying to make easier money! Time is money these days! We live in a capitalistic nation so this is inevitable! Money drives everything to a lot of folks! As for me, I'll probably still be in my barn/sugar house sipping on a cold beer watching sap bubbles roar in my "not so economic" evaporator enjoying good times with some good friends and family!

[DrTimPerkins]

If the sun is not the primary driver, then what is? Why was global warming renamed to climate change? And what will affect our maples more over the next 25 years, global warming or climate change?

I don't want to politicize or hijack this thread, so if you'd like to continue this discussion, feel free to start a new one on "Climate Change" and I'll join in.

[GeneralStark]

If the sun is not the primary driver, then what is? Why was global warming renamed to climate change? And what will affect our maples more over the next 25 years, global warming or climate change?

Not sure what you mean by "global warming" being renamed. If you are discussing media interpretations of the science, which are all over the map here in the US, then yes there has been a shift away from "global warming" to "climate change". Primarily due to the fact that warming is only one piece of a very complex climate system. Some regions may experienc dramatic warming (arctic) other areas may get colder, or drier, or wetter. Dramatic shifts in weather patterns and more erratic weather seem to be the major trend.

In terms of how climate change may affect the maple industry, there are a number of potential impacts:

1. Earlier start to the season and earlier end. This one seems obvious and has been observed. Not much to discuss there.
2. Erratic weather during the season. Example: 2012 summer in march.
3. Increased stress on trees due to a number of factors including: drought, flooding, extreme temp. swings and others.
4. These increased stress factors could lead to: decreased sugar content, native and invasive pest outbreaks, crown dieback, etc...

[GeneralStark]

I don't want to politicize or hijack this thread, so if you'd like to continue this discussion, feel free to start a new one on "Climate Change" and I'll join in.

Good call.

[wrushton]

I see ever one talking climate , with the new way of tapping using sapplings with 1000's on one acre people can go one step more and grow them in a green house to control the climate instead of tapping once a year maybe 2 or 3 times a year. Over the years a lots crops are now grown this way

[BlueberryHill]

Cool idea. Get a 1 acre greenhouse with 1000 saplings. You could uncover it in the summer and let nature grow the trees. Then in the fall/winter cover it. In the middle of winter you can use natures refridgerator to cool off the greenhouse and then turn on the heat for a run when you are ready. Keep repeating that. You could make them run when you want by heating the greenhouse. Keep that evaporator running in Dec. and Jan. maybe into Feb. Maybe get those to dry up just in time for the regular season/regular trees. Don't have to wait 25 years for this to happen! Divorce lawyers would probably reap the rewards of this as well.

[PATheron]

I know a lot of people think that with the technology it will flood the world with syrup but I don't think so. Reason I say this is when I started I thought about a remote deal for starting ro machines and I told Richard Patterson and hes like I don't know, got to fiddle with them a lot and stuff and after syruping now for a while I know what hes saying. Seems like its about a miracle if you make much syrup in a year with everything that goes wrong. I seriously doubt however its done its going to be very easy. Even the sapling trick, and I think its a cool idea, the way I run the numbers would be six times the work of running a standard bush because it looks like it takes about six times the taps to equal a standard one? Makes my elbows hurt just thinking about it. Cool idea though, somebody plants fifty acres of hayfield to saplings be the biggest producer by tap count in the US! Theron

[maple flats]

Likely I'll not be boiling any more, I'd be 92 in 25 yrs. If I'm still able to sit up and take nourishment on my own, hopefully some of it will have maple syrup on it.
Gauging by the advances in the last 25 years, and seeing the changes (improvements) keep coming faster and faster, my guess is that if a maple producer went into a coma today and woke up in 25 years, the maple industry would not even be recognizable by that person. Each year there are more and more improvements in every aspect from growing the trees to filtering/canning the syrup and everything in between, if we don't follow closely, the industry will pass us by faster than a rocket ship passing a man using a walker to get around. Keep your mind open and enjoy the science and industry that is maple.

[Maplewalnut]

Agree science and technology will continue to advance the maple industry. Keep in mind however that there is 'bad science'
Can you say GMO? How many people have had a CSA pop up in their town in the last couple years, how many of your neighbors, friends,relatives have a small flock of chickens now? Science is good but there will always be a market for 'all natural' syrup. Societies tolerance of how far science goes in the maple industry will dictate how big that 'all natural' market will be.

[Sunday Rock Maple]

Magic for the young, memories for the old and mostly madness for those in the middle.

[southfork]

Since the original question was " What Will the Maple Industry Look like in 25 years ", I doubt global warming will become a major factor.

I am of the opinion that the maple industry will somewhat follow the dairy, beef, farming and poultry industry. Changes will likely not only be due to technology, but also government regulations and consumer demands in food safety will add additional pressures and expense.

It seems that technology demands and government regulations typically favor those the who are the best funded and able to comply. As in dairy and poultry, the primary producers typically get much larger in size, and fewer in number.

Food safety and liability will become more important issues, the public sues at most every traceable case of food poisoning or adulteration. Some is good , some is frivolous, but all are fact and drive the increase and public support for more regulations on the food producers.

The cost of living, healthcare, and new government pressures on the middle class wage earners means that mid level maple producers and other small business may have to increase production to feed the family. The economic unit in beef cattle has increased from 300 head to around 400 head ( depending on region and source ). I do not know about dairy, but in Wisconsin most herds less than 100 head have vanished, many are in the thousands. Broiler and egg production has mainly gone to the very large producers who can automate, feed in volume, and comply with regulations.

There was a time when many considered 4-5,000 maple taps a good number to support a family....with maple syrup production the sole source of the family income. Today with increased production costs ( labor and regulation compliance as examples), and other economic pressures such as healthcare, some in practice consider 10,000 taps, on high vac, a good number for a comfortable and sustainable income solely from maple. Obviously there are other factors such as region, cost of land, income expectations, available family labor etc etc that can alter these numbers greatly. There are no hard rules.

So, here is what I predict. As a small hobby we are safe in the next 25 years, just as we have backyard flocks of chickens and livestock, maple producers will have a hobby or supplemental income market. Those mapler producers looking for a substantial income, either supplemental or fully supportive ( one family income source) will continue to abandon the old technology and invest into the new. I see many adding taps on high vac and moving their operations from 3-5,000 taps to larger numbers like 10,000. I also see cooperate money coming, where coops buy large tracts of lands and produce for packers....or some variation thereof.

I also believe you will see a movement of well funded individuals entering the industry on a medium to large scale and not looking for a family maintaining income. In other words, they are already wealthy or have other major sources of income. They enter the maple industry because they enjoy managing businesses, and the industry to date seems wholesome and American. Many cattle operations ( Ranches) are now owned by wealthy individuals and they hire ranch managers to produce for them. Profits are not always their primary objective, but they will strive to not have a financial black hole either. This type of maple producer will likely be hightech, well funded and probably very good at what they produce. As in other areas of agriculture, this type of producer will produce in volume and be a very significant player in major markets. They have the funds to promote and become a high level player.

None of this is fact, just my opinion to encourage further discussion.

[southfork]

In my lifetime and in my area I have watched the steady decline and large loss of white birch, Dutch elm, American elm, and now ash species due to the EAB. In the next 25 years I am most concerned with invasive species, and tree diseases in general.

[Scribner's Mountain Maple]

I'm thinking vacuum readings from each tap hole in real time. With Camera's on each mainline with a large touch screen monitor from your command center.