Warming Trend...any takers?

[MIMapler]

Looks like the lake-effect snow this week will give way to warming weather in about a week. I'm thinking I may hang a few buckets just to get started. Anyone else in SW Michigan thinking along the same lines?

[Tweegs]

Probably going to wait a while yet.

Last year we kept records of the forecast temperatures vs. the actual temperatures.
The temps forecast 10 days in advance where typically off the mark, far off the mark, up to 21 degrees in some cases.

Another way we looked at it was to see how often they got within +/-5 degrees of the actual temp:
10 days out 0% accuracy.
9 days out 0% accuracy.
8 days out 0% accuracy.
7 days out 0% accuracy.
6 days out 0% accuracy.
5 days out 0% accuracy.
4 days out 1% accuracy.
3 days out 5% accuracy.
2 days out 10% accuracy.
1 day out 35% accuracy.
Same day, 60% accuracy.

In other words, anything they predict beyond 2 days out ain’t worth diddly.

[GeneralStark]

Last winter and spring the models were having a hard time with temperatures due to the lack of snow cover.

[Cake O' Maple]

I'm seriously thinking of biting. I know the long-term forecasts aren't reliable, but it gets me on the alert to look more often at what they say is coming!

If we do get the warming above 40 for the daytimes like they say, I'm starting.

Last year I tapped half what I'd planned tapping on January 5, because the weather had been perfect and was looking good for the next couple weeks. Was told several times I was crazy. But I had 2 gallons of syrup by the end of January. For a small producer, it meant a lot to me! I knew I was risking having my taps close up early, but I gambled and won last year, as the 80's in March killed it for me...I couldn't even keep sap 1/2 day, with "sap cubes" helping keep it cool.

This year I'm trying cv's (gravity) so am much less concerned about tapping too early. It's also been another weird winter.

MIMapler, where to you tap in MI? I see you're from Chicago, and I know a lot of Chicago people go to the lakeshore communities in the very SW of MI...like New Buffalo, Sawyer, etc.

[Don(MI)]

No way! I still think we are early!!!

Beth.....that is darn good for being early! Do you have good help?

[Maplehobbyist]

I, too, am thinking of biting, although I'll wait til the forecast isn't so far into the future before I decide for sure. Right now it looks like three good days in a row (Jan 28-30). Be nice if it happened, that way my tapping could be done on a Sunday. Now I just need to get to Sugar Bush Supplies to get some more 5/16" taps.

[MIMapler]

I'm seriously thinking of biting. I know the long-term forecasts aren't reliable, but it gets me on the alert to look more often at what they say is coming!

If we do get the warming above 40 for the daytimes like they say, I'm starting.

Last year I tapped half what I'd planned tapping on January 5, because the weather had been perfect and was looking good for the next couple weeks. Was told several times I was crazy. But I had 2 gallons of syrup by the end of January. For a small producer, it meant a lot to me! I knew I was risking having my taps close up early, but I gambled and won last year, as the 80's in March killed it for me...I couldn't even keep sap 1/2 day, with "sap cubes" helping keep it cool.

This year I'm trying cv's (gravity) so am much less concerned about tapping too early. It's also been another weird winter.

MIMapler, where to you tap in MI? I see you're from Chicago, and I know a lot of Chicago people go to the lakeshore communities in the very SW of MI...like New Buffalo, Sawyer, etc.


Beth,

We are up in the Fire Lanes just south of South Haven. Like you, I use the long-range forecasts to help make plans about when to drive up from Chicago etc. with the understanding that I may have to scrub
my trip if the warm-up turns out to be just a bad computer prediction. I only have about 50 trees and I will plan on tapping only around half of them early. It's good to hear what others are thinking in the same region, and I will plan to report back once I get started.

Best,
Charlie P.

[BoarsNest]

I'm not ready, but if I was I would wait. I am thinking mid to late February unless something crazy happens. This cold snap should really freeze the trees. It seems like we will need some warm weather to get them started again.

[shane hickey]

Getting things ready but i plan on drilling by the end
Of the week

[lastwoodsman]

Tonight is -20 and not much snow. Another month before I can even start thinking about tapping.
Woodsman

[Cake O' Maple]

No way! I still think we are early!!!

Beth.....that is darn good for being early! Do you have good help?

Not really, it's mostly just me. I tapped my neighbor's trees last year as he wasn't physically able to do the work, and he saved me some time by checking the buckets on those "iffy" days to let me know if I had to collect, and switched out a couple buckets that were about to overflow, and at the very end of the season I HAD to work and HAD to boil, and convinced my Dad to come down from Muskegon and boil for a day so I didn't lose the sap.

[Cake O' Maple]

Beth,

We are up in the Fire Lanes just south of South Haven. Like you, I use the long-range forecasts to help make plans about when to drive up from Chicago etc. with the understanding that I may have to scrub
my trip if the warm-up turns out to be just a bad computer prediction. I only have about 50 trees and I will plan on tapping only around half of them early. It's good to hear what others are thinking in the same region, and I will plan to report back once I get started.

Best,
Charlie P.

Charlie, you do have a bit of a drive, then! Best of luck to you this year.

I'll be reporting when I tap as well.

[Don(MI)]

Not really, it's mostly just me. I tapped my neighbor's trees last year as he wasn't physically able to do the work, and he saved me some time by checking the buckets on those "iffy" days to let me know if I had to collect, and switched out a couple buckets that were about to overflow, and at the very end of the season I HAD to work and HAD to boil, and convinced my Dad to come down from Muskegon and boil for a day so I didn't lose the sap.

Ah, yep it can get really busy during the best of sap flow!

When I was 6-8 I remember 'helping' Dad and grandpa, with the cast iron kettle doing all the cooking, under the nighttime skies. The moon would be shinin down as we cooked until 10-12 PM. The kettle was hung over a horizontal log, nail/braced to 2 standing trees, about 8 ft. off the ground. And the kettle was attached with a chain.

It was kind of primitive, but worked! Good old days!

But I am 27 now, would be cool to try cooking that way again just for kicks.

[Cake O' Maple]

Ah, yep it can get really busy during the best of sap flow!

When I was 6-8 I remember 'helping' Dad and grandpa, with the cast iron kettle doing all the cooking, under the nighttime skies. The moon would be shinin down as we cooked until 10-12 PM. The kettle was hung over a horizontal log, nail/braced to 2 standing trees, about 8 ft. off the ground. And the kettle was attached with a chain.

It was kind of primitive, but worked! Good old days!

But I am 27 now, would be cool to try cooking that way again just for kicks.

Now that's pretty cool. I'm 46, and ours wasn't so primitive, but my Little-House-on-the-Prairie-loving self would have been in heaven to do it that way.

My dad made syrup over a homemade cinderblock and firebrick arch, outdoors, on a divided pan. He worked full-time, and mostly boiled at night, and I wasn't allowed to stay up that late. However, we lived out in the boonies and got on the bus about 6:30 a.m. (first ones on, last ones off), so us kids went to bed early.

[Cake O' Maple]

Oh, yeah, to keep this on-topic, I've been watching the long-term forecast, and here they say 2 days of about 40 next week, then back to below freezing for highs. At this point, I'm thinking I may tap on the warm days, not before like I'd planned, (be a bit more comfortable), but only if it should warm up again soon.

We'll see! The best-laid plans....and all that.

[DonMcJr]

The Warm-up next week appears to be Monday-Wednesday then back to cold. I'm switching 15 of my taps to Tube/gravity and just ordered the fitting last night but even if I had the fittings I'd pass until I see I week straight of above freezing Daytime Temps.

Might have some more taps on buckets too in my woods but that's only if I get my 4-wheeler fixed which I am gonna try to do today!

If anyone taps next week be sure to report!

[Too Tall]

I tapped 12 trees today. I read a post by Dr. Tim? (who sounded really knowledgeable) that said it makes very little difference if you tap early. So I figured I'd give it a try. If it doesn't pan out, I'll just tap 12 different trees later in February.

Just a little trial and error for a 2nd year guy.

[Maplehobbyist]

I couldn't resist any longer, so I put in 10 taps tonight after work. We'll see what tomorrow brings.