El or La Nina?

[220 maple]

NOAA is predicting that El Nina will form this month or next. Just curious if anyone has kept records for these weather patterns and how they affect syrup production?

Mark 220 Maple

[bees1st]

I'm confused. It's la nina OR el nino, which one are they predicting ?

[bees1st]

here tis http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110908_lanina.html

[bees1st]

Wait there's more. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/usdivtp/jfmt1ne.gif

[wiam]

here tis http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110908_lanina.html

OK, but this is dated September 2011.

[maple flats]

I agree, it seems to be predicting last winter/early spring season. Is there any prediction dated this summer?

[spud]

Wait there's more. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/usdivtp/jfmt1ne.gif

bees1st- Living in Belfast maine and being that close to the ocean does this affect the amount of sap you get from your trees and the sugar content. I was just wondering because I thought there was a more sandy soil in your area. I did not know if that affects maple trees and there growth and production. Thanks

Spud

[western mainer]

In my part of Maine it's all rocks!

[bees1st]

sorry didn't check the date! It maybe dated but it still applies. Spud , actually I live in a little town called Hope, Belfast is beyond hope. I'm about 10 miles inland from Penobscot bay. There are hills, I'm at about 400' elevation. Rocks , and more rocks. We do have a coastal influence. If you go over the ridge behind me [inland] it can be 10 degrees colder. My season isn't much shorter than inland,and may start a little earlier to make up for it.

[GeneralStark]

NOAA is predicting that El Nina will form this month or next. Just curious if anyone has kept records for these weather patterns and how they affect syrup production?

Mark 220 Maple

El Nino is being predicted to form this month or next: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

There is generally no clear correlation between El Nino and northeastern winter weather, but I think there may be a stronger correlation to SE U.S. winter weather.

[bees1st]

El Nino does have an effect on the northeast according to this NOAA chart .http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/gif/summer_winter1-nns.gif

[argohauler]

El Nino's are good for syrup making a fellow sugar maker told me and I hope we never see another La Nina year like last year ever again.

[GeneralStark]

El Nino does have an effect on the northeast according to this NOAA chart .http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/gif/summer_winter1-nns.gif

I should have been more specific. While El Nino can lead to an increase in precipitation in the northeast, it generally has no major impact on winter temperatures.

That said, there have been some interesting recent studies which suggest that human induced atmospheric warming may be amplifying the La Nina and El Nino effects. It is believed that last year's unusual winter and this summer's extreme dry, hot conditions in much of the US are a result of an amplified La Nina.

This is described to some degree in this blog post: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2150

[rookie]

sorry didn't check the date! It maybe dated but it still applies. Spud , actually I live in a little town called Hope, Belfast is beyond hope.. ,


when i read it fast, for a minute there i was thinking you had something against Belfast. had a good laugh

[bees1st]

ah but General, the NOAA chart indicates that the northeast has a possiblity of being warmer during this predicted upcoming cycle.

[bees1st]

Oh nothing against Belfast, they're just beyond hope.

[PATheron]

Joe bascardi was saying colder and more snow this winter but Ive been hearing people saying warmer than normal. Which is it do you guys think? Warm fall and real cold winter? Theron

[happy thoughts]

Joe bascardi was saying colder and more snow this winter but Ive been hearing people saying warmer than normal. Which is it do you guys think? Warm fall and real cold winter? Theron

Still anyone's guess:) I found this at NOAA that plots Boston temps, rainfall and snow as related to el nino, la nina and sunspots.

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/effects.htm

Current prediction is for a mild to moderate el nino,
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

but we are also entering solar maximus- heavy sunspot activity that occurs about every 11 years. If it stays clear we should at least be treated to some nice auroras. Wonder if that has any relation to sap production?

[bees1st]

when I try to predict how cold a winter it will be I just go look at my neighbors wood pile. If he's put up more wood than normal, I predict it will be a colder winter .I don't think I've heard his chainsaw in more than a week ,I'll look and get back to you with my prediction.

[GeneralStark]

ah but General, the NOAA chart indicates that the northeast has a possiblity of being warmer during this predicted upcoming cycle.

It is hard to say exactly what the chart you posted means exactly is tough to say as it is not labeled.

Perhaps this will help with what I am trying to say:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-nino-more-snow-for-upcoming/66450

The predictions are not up to date as far as predicting this winter's weather but it does do a good job at explaining what I'm trying to say. It can go either way depending upon intensity, and there is no clear correlation between el nino and good sugaring in the northeast. That said, NOAA is predicting a moderate event, so that could mean lots of snow and cold. That's what I am hoping for anyway.:)